Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,174)
- Faculty Publications (552)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators
By: Isaiah Andrews and Jesse M. Shapiro
Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings to their scientific audience. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience to make misguided decisions. We... View Details
- January 2024
- Article
Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation
By: Matthew Vogel, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim and Benjamin N. Rome
Importance: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for some high-spending drugs but exempts drugs approved solely for the treatment of a single rare disease.
Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details
Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details
- January 2024
- Article
Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger
By: Chiara Farronato, Jessica Fong and Andrey Fradkin
Digital platforms are increasingly the subject of regulatory scrutiny. In comparison to multiple competitors, a single platform may increase consumer welfare if network effects are large or may decrease welfare due to higher prices or reduction in platform variety. We... View Details
- January 2024
- Article
Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Kevin Wu Han, Guillaume Basse and Iavor Bojinov
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details
- 2024
- Conference Paper
Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Sree Harsha Tanneru and Chirag Agarwal
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several
high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting
works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as
proxy explanations for LLM... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Estimating Productivity in the Presence of Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from the U.S. Production Network
By: Ebehi Iyoha
This paper examines the extent to which productivity gains are transmitted across U.S. firms through buyer-supplier relationships. Many empirical studies measure firm-to-firm spillovers using firm-level productivity estimates derived from control function approaches.... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
A large literature shows that people discount financial rewards hyperbolically instead of exponentially. While discounting of money has been questioned as a measure of time preferences, it continues to be highly relevant in empirical practice and predicts a wide range... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Flow-Driven ESG Returns
I show that the recent returns to ESG investing are strongly driven by price impact
from flows towards ESG funds. Using data on institutional trades, I estimate the
market’s ability to accommodate the demand of ESG funds, which is given by the
elasticity of... View Details
- November–December 2023
- Article
Keep Your AI Projects on Track
By: Iavor Bojinov
AI—and especially its newest star, generative AI—is today a central theme in corporate boardrooms, leadership discussions, and casual exchanges among employees eager to supercharge their productivity. Sadly, beneath the aspirational headlines and tantalizing potential... View Details
- November 2023
- Article
Open Source Software and Global Entrepreneurship
By: Nataliya Langburd Wright, Frank Nagle and Shane Greenstein
This is the first study to consider the relationship between open source software (OSS) and
entrepreneurship around the globe. This study measures whether country-level participation on
the GitHub OSS platform affects the founding of innovative ventures, and where it... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom
By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin
This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details
- October 2023
- Case
Prime Coalition: Estimating Climate Impact
A case on CRANE, a tool to help investors and green technology companies estimate the future climate impact of new technologies and products, called emissions reduction potential (ERP). The case includes material on CRANE’s methodology for estimating future carbon... View Details
- October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing
By: George Serafeim, Siko Sikochi and Namrata Arora
The problem was massive: two million hectares of African forests were lost annually to charcoal production for cooking, an area equivalent to 13 times Greater London, resulting in one billion tons of carbon emissions yearly. At the same time, an estimated 700,000... View Details
Keywords: Clean Tech; Digital; Carbon Credits; Carbon Offsetting; Africa; Emerging Markets; Energy; Climate Change; Entrepreneurship; Energy Sources; Environmental Sustainability; Health; Market Design; Business Startups; Transition; Environmental Regulation; Policy; Energy Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Africa; Kenya; Rwanda
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Buy-In Effect: When Increasing Initial Effort Motivates Behavioral Follow-Through
By: Holly Dykstra, Shibeal O'Flaherty and A.V. Whillans
Behavioral interventions often focus on reducing friction to encourage behavior change. In
contrast, we provide evidence that adding friction can promote long-term behavior change when
behaviors involve repeated costly efforts over longer time horizons. In... View Details
- October–December 2023
- Article
A Practical Guide to Conversation Research: How to Study What People Say to Each Other
By: Michael Yeomans, Katelynn Boland, Hanne K. Collins, Nicole Abi-Esber and Alison Wood Brooks
Conversation—a verbal interaction between two or more people—is a complex, pervasive, and consequential human behavior. Conversations have been studied across many academic disciplines. However, advances in recording and analysis techniques over the last decade have... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands
By: Isaiah Andrews, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero consistent, meaning... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods
- October 2023
- Article
Health System Perspective on Cost for Delivering a Decision Aid for Prostate Cancer Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing
By: David R. Ho, Robert S. Kaplan, Jonathan Bergman, David F. Penson, Benjamin Waterman, Kristin C. Williams, Jefersson Villatoro, Lorna Kwan and Christopher S. Saigal
Previsit decision aids (DAs) have been shown to improve decisional quality. But the cost to deploy a DA has not been previously estimated. We interviewed or observed relevant personnel at three institutions that had implemented DA programs for men with prostate cancer.... View Details
- October 2023
- Article
Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA
By: Matthew S. Johnson, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
We study how a regulator can best target inspections. Our case study is a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) program that randomly allocated some inspections. On average, each inspection averted 2.4 serious injuries (9%) over the next five years.... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Real Effects of Fair Workweek Laws on Work Schedules: Evidence from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia
By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
Effective in eight jurisdictions and banned in four, Fair Workweek Laws (FWL) aim to increase the predictability and stability of work schedules. Among other requirements, these laws penalize employers for unilaterally adjusting work schedules without providing some... View Details