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    • All HBS Web  (2,174)
      • Faculty Publications  (552)

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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators

      By: Isaiah Andrews and Jesse M. Shapiro
      Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings to their scientific audience. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience to make misguided decisions. We... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Andrews, Isaiah, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32038, January 2024.
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation

      By: Matthew Vogel, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim and Benjamin N. Rome
      Importance: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for some high-spending drugs but exempts drugs approved solely for the treatment of a single rare disease.
      Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Price; Health Industry
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      Vogel, Matthew, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim, and Benjamin N. Rome. "Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation." JAMA Internal Medicine 184, no. 1 (January 2024): 63–69.
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger

      By: Chiara Farronato, Jessica Fong and Andrey Fradkin
      Digital platforms are increasingly the subject of regulatory scrutiny. In comparison to multiple competitors, a single platform may increase consumer welfare if network effects are large or may decrease welfare due to higher prices or reduction in platform variety. We... View Details
      Keywords: Platform Differentiation; Digital Platforms; Network Effects; Measurement and Metrics; Mergers and Acquisitions; Outcome or Result
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      Farronato, Chiara, Jessica Fong, and Andrey Fradkin. "Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger." Management Science 70, no. 1 (January 2024): 464–483.
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Population Interference in Panel Experiments

      By: Kevin Wu Han, Guillaume Basse and Iavor Bojinov
      The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details
      Keywords: Outcome or Result; Research; Situation or Environment
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      Han, Kevin Wu, Guillaume Basse, and Iavor Bojinov. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Journal of Econometrics 238, no. 1 (January 2024).
      • 2024
      • Conference Paper

      Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models

      By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Sree Harsha Tanneru and Chirag Agarwal
      Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as proxy explanations for LLM... View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning
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      Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Sree Harsha Tanneru, and Chirag Agarwal. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models." Paper presented at the Society for Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2024.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Productivity in the Presence of Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from the U.S. Production Network

      By: Ebehi Iyoha
      This paper examines the extent to which productivity gains are transmitted across U.S. firms through buyer-supplier relationships. Many empirical studies measure firm-to-firm spillovers using firm-level productivity estimates derived from control function approaches.... View Details
      Keywords: Supply and Industry; Partners and Partnerships; Production
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      Iyoha, Ebehi. "Estimating Productivity in the Presence of Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from the U.S. Production Network." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-033, December 2023. (Winner of the Young Economists' Essay Award at the 2021 Annual Conference of the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE))
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      A large literature shows that people discount financial rewards hyperbolically instead of exponentially. While discounting of money has been questioned as a measure of time preferences, it continues to be highly relevant in empirical practice and predicts a wide range... View Details
      Keywords: Hyperbolic Discounting; Present Bias; Bounded Rationality; Cognitive Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-048, February 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Flow-Driven ESG Returns

      By: Philippe van der Beck
      I show that the recent returns to ESG investing are strongly driven by price impact from flows towards ESG funds. Using data on institutional trades, I estimate the market’s ability to accommodate the demand of ESG funds, which is given by the elasticity of... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Markets; Investment Return
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      van der Beck, Philippe. "Flow-Driven ESG Returns." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 21-71, November 2023.
      • November–December 2023
      • Article

      Keep Your AI Projects on Track

      By: Iavor Bojinov
      AI—and especially its newest star, generative AI—is today a central theme in corporate boardrooms, leadership discussions, and casual exchanges among employees eager to supercharge their productivity. Sadly, beneath the aspirational headlines and tantalizing potential... View Details
      Keywords: Generative Models; AI and Machine Learning; Success; Failure; Product Development; Technology Adoption
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      Bojinov, Iavor. "Keep Your AI Projects on Track." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 6 (November–December 2023): 53–59.
      • November 2023
      • Article

      Open Source Software and Global Entrepreneurship

      By: Nataliya Langburd Wright, Frank Nagle and Shane Greenstein
      This is the first study to consider the relationship between open source software (OSS) and entrepreneurship around the globe. This study measures whether country-level participation on the GitHub OSS platform affects the founding of innovative ventures, and where it... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Applications and Software; Business Ventures; Development Economics; Innovation and Invention; Global Range
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      Wright, Nataliya Langburd, Frank Nagle, and Shane Greenstein. "Open Source Software and Global Entrepreneurship." Art. 104846. Research Policy 52, no. 9 (November 2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom

      By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin
      This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details
      Keywords: Institutional Investing; Financial Markets; Price; Financial Instruments
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      van der Beck, Philippe, and Coralie Jaunin. "The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 21-12, November 2023.
      • October 2023
      • Case

      Prime Coalition: Estimating Climate Impact

      By: Natalia Rigol, Benjamin N. Roth, Brian Trelstad and Amram Migdal
      A case on CRANE, a tool to help investors and green technology companies estimate the future climate impact of new technologies and products, called emissions reduction potential (ERP). The case includes material on CRANE’s methodology for estimating future carbon... View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Environmental Accounting; Analysis; Climate Change; Green Technology; Innovation and Invention; Measurement and Metrics; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Risk and Uncertainty; Nonprofit Organizations; Social Enterprise
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      Rigol, Natalia, Benjamin N. Roth, Brian Trelstad, and Amram Migdal. "Prime Coalition: Estimating Climate Impact." Harvard Business School Case 824-119, October 2023.
      • October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
      • Case

      KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing

      By: George Serafeim, Siko Sikochi and Namrata Arora
      The problem was massive: two million hectares of African forests were lost annually to charcoal production for cooking, an area equivalent to 13 times Greater London, resulting in one billion tons of carbon emissions yearly. At the same time, an estimated 700,000... View Details
      Keywords: Clean Tech; Digital; Carbon Credits; Carbon Offsetting; Africa; Emerging Markets; Energy; Climate Change; Entrepreneurship; Energy Sources; Environmental Sustainability; Health; Market Design; Business Startups; Transition; Environmental Regulation; Policy; Energy Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Africa; Kenya; Rwanda
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      Serafeim, George, Siko Sikochi, and Namrata Arora. "KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing." Harvard Business School Case 124-022, October 2023. (Revised March 2024.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Buy-In Effect: When Increasing Initial Effort Motivates Behavioral Follow-Through

      By: Holly Dykstra, Shibeal O'Flaherty and A.V. Whillans
      Behavioral interventions often focus on reducing friction to encourage behavior change. In contrast, we provide evidence that adding friction can promote long-term behavior change when behaviors involve repeated costly efforts over longer time horizons. In... View Details
      Keywords: Friction; Behavior; Environmental Sustainability; Transportation; Outcome or Result
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      Dykstra, Holly, Shibeal O'Flaherty, and A.V. Whillans. "The Buy-In Effect: When Increasing Initial Effort Motivates Behavioral Follow-Through." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-020, October 2023.
      • October–December 2023
      • Article

      A Practical Guide to Conversation Research: How to Study What People Say to Each Other

      By: Michael Yeomans, Katelynn Boland, Hanne K. Collins, Nicole Abi-Esber and Alison Wood Brooks
      Conversation—a verbal interaction between two or more people—is a complex, pervasive, and consequential human behavior. Conversations have been studied across many academic disciplines. However, advances in recording and analysis techniques over the last decade have... View Details
      Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Analytics and Data Science; Research
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      Yeomans, Michael, Katelynn Boland, Hanne K. Collins, Nicole Abi-Esber, and Alison Wood Brooks. "A Practical Guide to Conversation Research: How to Study What People Say to Each Other." Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 6, no. 4 (October–December 2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands

      By: Isaiah Andrews, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan and Jesse M. Shapiro
      We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero consistent, meaning... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods
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      Andrews, Isaiah, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31799, October 2023.
      • October 2023
      • Article

      Health System Perspective on Cost for Delivering a Decision Aid for Prostate Cancer Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing

      By: David R. Ho, Robert S. Kaplan, Jonathan Bergman, David F. Penson, Benjamin Waterman, Kristin C. Williams, Jefersson Villatoro, Lorna Kwan and Christopher S. Saigal
      Previsit decision aids (DAs) have been shown to improve decisional quality. But the cost to deploy a DA has not been previously estimated. We interviewed or observed relevant personnel at three institutions that had implemented DA programs for men with prostate cancer.... View Details
      Keywords: Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing; Health Care and Treatment; Cost Accounting; Health Industry
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      Ho, David R., Robert S. Kaplan, Jonathan Bergman, David F. Penson, Benjamin Waterman, Kristin C. Williams, Jefersson Villatoro, Lorna Kwan, and Christopher S. Saigal. "Health System Perspective on Cost for Delivering a Decision Aid for Prostate Cancer Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing." Medical Care 61, no. 10 (October 2023): 681–688.
      • October 2023
      • Article

      Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA

      By: Matthew S. Johnson, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      We study how a regulator can best target inspections. Our case study is a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) program that randomly allocated some inspections. On average, each inspection averted 2.4 serious injuries (9%) over the next five years.... View Details
      Keywords: Safety Regulations; Regulations; Regulatory Enforcement; Machine Learning Models; Safety; Operations; Service Operations; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Decisions; United States
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      Johnson, Matthew S., David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel. "Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 15, no. 4 (October 2023): 30–67. (Profiled in the Regulatory Review.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Real Effects of Fair Workweek Laws on Work Schedules: Evidence from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      Effective in eight jurisdictions and banned in four, Fair Workweek Laws (FWL) aim to increase the predictability and stability of work schedules. Among other requirements, these laws penalize employers for unilaterally adjusting work schedules without providing some... View Details
      Keywords: Working Conditions; Employees; Outcome or Result; Los Angeles; Chicago; Philadelphia
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Real Effects of Fair Workweek Laws on Work Schedules: Evidence from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia." Working Paper, October 2023.
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