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      • Faculty Publications  (252)

      Economic RiskRemove Economic Risk →

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      • January–February 2021
      • Article

      Compensation Packages That Actually Drive Performance

      By: Boris Groysberg, Sarah Abbott, Michael R. Marino and Metin Aksoy
      By aligning executives’ financial incentives with company strategy, a firm can inspire its management to deliver superior results. But it can be hard to get pay packages right. In this article four experts break down the key elements of compensation and explain how to... View Details
      Keywords: Executive Compensation; Compensation and Benefits; Motivation and Incentives; Strategy; Performance
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      Groysberg, Boris, Sarah Abbott, Michael R. Marino, and Metin Aksoy. "Compensation Packages That Actually Drive Performance." Harvard Business Review 99, no. 1 (January–February 2021): 102–111.
      • June 2021
      • Article

      From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng
      The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg, and Cynthia Zeng. "From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19." Health Care Management Science 24, no. 2 (June 2021): 253–272.
      • October 2020
      • Case

      HOPE and Transformational Lending: Netflix Invests in Black Led Banks

      By: John D. Macomber and Janice Broome Brooks
      Following the killing of George Floyd on Memorial Day in 2020, the large US corporation Netflix elected to make a "transformational deposit" of $10 million into Hope Credit Union (HCU), a small Black led community development finance institution (CDFI) based in... View Details
      Keywords: Banking; Rural Entrepreneurship; Economic Development; Black Entrepreneurs; Economic Growth; Credit; Banks and Banking; Entrepreneurship; Rural Scope; Development Economics; Race; Investment; Decision Making; Banking Industry
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      Macomber, John D., and Janice Broome Brooks. "HOPE and Transformational Lending: Netflix Invests in Black Led Banks." Harvard Business School Case 221-030, October 2020.
      • September–October 2020
      • Article

      Global Supply Chains in a Post-Pandemic World: Companies Need to Make Their Networks More Resilient. Here's How.

      By: Willy C. Shih
      The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities in the production strategies and supply chains of firms everywhere. Coupled with a rise in economic nationalism, manufacturers everywhere are going to be under pressure to rethink their sourcing and logistics... View Details
      Keywords: Resilience; Pandemic; Operations Management; Health Pandemics; Supply Chain; Supply Chain Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia; Europe
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      Shih, Willy C. "Global Supply Chains in a Post-Pandemic World: Companies Need to Make Their Networks More Resilient. Here's How." R2005F. Harvard Business Review 98, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 82–89.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

      By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details
      Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
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      Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
      • July 28, 2020
      • Article

      Economic Vulnerability of Households with Essential Workers

      By: Grace McCormack, Christopher Avery, Ariella Kahn-Lang Spitzer and Amitabh Chandra
      The label of “essential worker” reflects society’s needs but does not mean that society has compensated those workers for additional risks incurred on the job during the current pandemic. When an essential worker contracts severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus... View Details
      Keywords: Essential Workers; Health Pandemics; Household; Financial Condition; United States
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      McCormack, Grace, Christopher Avery, Ariella Kahn-Lang Spitzer, and Amitabh Chandra. "Economic Vulnerability of Households with Essential Workers." JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association 324, no. 4 (July 28, 2020): 388–390.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      A central question for understanding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6–13, 2020, to understand... View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Age
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27494, July 2020.
      • 2020
      • Book

      Capitalism at Risk: How Business Can Lead

      By: Joseph L. Bower, Dutch Leonard and Lynn S. Paine
      Who should take the lead in fixing market capitalism? Business—not government alone. The spread of capitalism worldwide has made people wealthier than ever before. But capitalism's future is far from assured. Pandemics, income inequality, resource depletion, mass... View Details
      Keywords: Capitalism; Business And Society; Economic Systems; Economic Growth; Policy; Leading Change; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Community Relations; Corporate Strategy
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      Bower, Joseph L., Dutch Leonard, and Lynn S. Paine. Capitalism at Risk: How Business Can Lead. Updated and expanded ed. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

      By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
      Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Emerging Economies; Informality; Firm-size Distribution; Health Pandemics; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; System Shocks; Latin America
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      Alfaro, Laura, Oscar Becerra, and Marcela Eslava. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-125, June 2020. (See application of the methodology to Latin American Countries in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 2020, Chapter 3. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere.)
      • May 2020 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin
      In April 2020, the world struggled to contain the exponential escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Dozens of countries had imposed restrictions on travel, work, and social gatherings. A large share of the global population was under lockdowns and... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Finance; Central Banking; Financial Markets; International Finance; Globalization; Government and Politics; Health Pandemics; Decision Making; Macroeconomics; Employment; Crisis Management; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Air Transportation Industry; Banking Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Employment Industry; Financial Services Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Health Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Public Administration Industry; Retail Industry; Service Industry; Shipping Industry; Tourism Industry; Travel Industry; Asia; China; Europe; Latin America; Africa; United States
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Christian Godwin. "The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)." Harvard Business School Case 720-031, May 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • May 2020
      • Article

      Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences

      By: Anke Becker, Benjamin Enke and Armin Falk
      This paper shows that contemporary population-level heterogeneity in risk aversion, time preference, altruism, positive reciprocity, negative reciprocity, and trust partly traces back to the structure of the migration patterns of our very early ancestors. To document... View Details
      Keywords: Migration Patterns; Behavioral Economics; Preferences; Microeconomics; Demography; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; History; Global Range
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      Becker, Anke, Benjamin Enke, and Armin Falk. "Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences." AEA Papers and Proceedings 110 (May 2020): 319–323.
      • February 2020
      • Technical Note

      Talent Management and the Future of Work

      By: William R. Kerr and Gorick Ng
      The nature of work is changing—and it is changing rapidly. Few days go by without industry giants such as Amazon and AT&T announcing plans to invest billions of dollars towards retraining nearly half of their respective workforces for jobs of the future. What changes... View Details
      Keywords: Human Resource Management; Human Capital Development; Human Resource Practices; Talent; Talent Acquisition; Talent Development; Talent Development And Retention; Talent Management; Talent Retention; Labor Flows; Labor Management; Labor Market; Strategy Development; Strategy Management; Strategy Execution; Strategy And Execution; Strategic Change; Transformations; Organization; Organization Alignment; Organization Design; Organizational Adaptation; Organizational Effectiveness; Management Challenges; Management Of Business And Political Risk; Change Leadership; Future Of Work; Future; Skills Gap; Skills Development; Skills; Offshoring And Outsourcing; Investment; Capital Allocation; Work; Work Culture; Work Force Management; Work/life Balance; Work/family Balance; Work-family Boundary Management; Workers; Worker Productivity; Worker Performance; Work Engagement; Work Environment; Work Environments; Productivity; Organization Culture; Soft Skills; Technology Management; Technological Change; Technological Change: Choices And Consequences; Technology Diffusion; Disruptive Technology; Global Business; Global; Workplace; Workplace Context; Workplace Culture; Workplace Wellness; Collaboration; Competencies; Productivity Gains; Digital; Digital Transition; Competitive Dynamics; Competitiveness; Competitive Strategy; Data Analytics; Data; Data Management; Data Strategy; Data Protection; Aging Society; Diversity; Diversity Management; Millennials; Communication Complexity; Communication Technologies; International Business; Work Sharing; Global Competitiveness; Global Corporate Cultures; Intellectual Property; Intellectual Property Management; Intellectual Property Protection; Intellectual Capital And Property Issues; Globalization Of Supply Chain; Inequality; Recruiting; Hiring; Hiring Of Employees; Training; Job Cuts And Outsourcing; Job Performance; Job Search; Job Design; Job Satisfaction; Jobs; Employee Engagement; Employee Attitude; Employee Benefits; Employee Compensation; Employee Fairness; Employee Relationship Management; Employee Retention; Employee Selection; Employee Motivation; Employee Feedback; Employee Coordination; Employee Performance Management; Employee Socialization; Process Improvement; Application Performance Management; Stigma; Institutional Change; Candidates; Digital Enterprise; Cultural Adaptation; Cultural Change; Cultural Diversity; Cultural Context; Cultural Strategies; Cultural Psychology; Cultural Reform; Performance; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Management; Performance Evaluation; Performance Appraisal; Performance Feedback; Performance Measurement; Performance Metrics; Performance Measures; Performance Efficiency; Efficiency; Performance Analysis; Performance Appraisals; Performance Improvement; Automation; Artificial Intelligence; Technology Companies; Managerial Processes; Skilled Migration; Assessment; Human Resources; Management; Human Capital; Talent and Talent Management; Retention; Demographics; Labor; Strategy; Change; Change Management; Transformation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Working Conditions; Information Technology; Technology Adoption; Disruption; Economy; Competition; Globalization; AI and Machine Learning; Digital Transformation
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      Kerr, William R., and Gorick Ng. "Talent Management and the Future of Work." Harvard Business School Technical Note 820-084, February 2020.
      • January 2020
      • Background Note

      Climate Change in 2020: Implications for Business

      By: Rebecca M. Henderson, Sophus A. Reinert and Mariana Oseguera
      This note provides general information about climate change and its implications for business. Included is an overview of climate change science and a number of its impacts, including rising sea levels, changing weather patterns and extreme weather, pressure on water... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Environmental Accounting; Agribusiness; Economic Growth; Energy Conservation; Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Energy Sources; Non-Renewable Energy; Globalized Markets and Industries; National Security; Government Legislation; Operations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Natural Disasters; Natural Environment; Environmental Sustainability; Pollutants; Science-Based Business; Weather; Society; Technology
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      Henderson, Rebecca M., Sophus A. Reinert, and Mariana Oseguera. "Climate Change in 2020: Implications for Business." Harvard Business School Background Note 320-087, January 2020. (Click here for a complimentary copy on the Business & Environment Initiative’s site.)
      • December 2019
      • Case

      CME Group in 2019

      By: José B. Alvarez, Forest Reinhardt and Natalie Kindred
      Chicago-based CME Group is the world’s largest futures and options marketplace, with annual trading volume of over 4.8 billion contracts in 2018. This case is set in late 2019, as heightened perceptions of risk stemming from the U.S.-China trade war are driving record... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Risk Management; Futures and Commodity Futures; Trade; Price; Competition; Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; United States; China; Brazil
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      Alvarez, José B., Forest Reinhardt, and Natalie Kindred. "CME Group in 2019." Harvard Business School Case 520-048, December 2019.
      • November 2019 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      Russia: A Drama In Three Acts

      By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella, Galit Goldstein, Sogomon Tarontsi and Lavinia Teodorescu
      The collapse of central authority in the Soviet Union in 1991 ushered in a period of revolutionary transformations for the states that emerged in its wake. The leaders of Russia, the USSR's successor, struggled to reestablish central authority while also seeking to... View Details
      Keywords: Government Policy; Policy Change; Policy Making; Economic Systems; Economics; Globalization; Emerging Markets; Privatization; Non-Renewable Energy; Governance; Global Strategy; Corporate Governance; Policy; Business History; Lawfulness; Problems and Challenges; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy; Change Management; Developing Countries and Economies; Russia; Moscow
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      Abdelal, Rawi, Rafael Di Tella, Galit Goldstein, Sogomon Tarontsi, and Lavinia Teodorescu. "Russia: A Drama In Three Acts." Harvard Business School Case 720-020, November 2019. (Revised January 2025.)
      • November 2019
      • Case

      Edita: Making Choices in Uncertain Times

      By: Caroline M. Elkins, Juan Alcácer, Alpana Thapar and Youssef Abdel Aal
      After 15 years of steady growth and expansion, Edita, a leading Egyptian snack producer, faced a series of challenges in the wake of the Arab Spring. In January 2011, the Egyptian Revolution sparked political and economic turmoil that reflected the waves of protest and... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; Business or Company Management; Price; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Distribution; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Strategy; Expansion; Currency; Food and Beverage Industry; Egypt; Africa; Middle East
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      Elkins, Caroline M., Juan Alcácer, Alpana Thapar, and Youssef Abdel Aal. "Edita: Making Choices in Uncertain Times." Harvard Business School Case 320-026, November 2019.
      • October 2019
      • Article

      Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending

      By: Olivia S. Kim
      This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty on contractual lending terms using a large sample of syndicated loans and a within-firm estimation approach to achieve identification. Firms pay 7 basis points (bps) more on loans originated when their... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Political Elections; Financing and Loans; Developing Countries and Economies
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      Kim, Olivia S. "Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 54, no. 5 (October 2019): 2141–2178.
      • 2019
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico

      By: Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
      Keywords: Financial Risk; Finance; Economics; Mexico; Latin America
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      Alfaro, Laura, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart, and Liliana Rojas-Suarez. "Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico." Comité Latinoamericano de Asuntos Financieros (CLAAF) Statement, no. 41, July 2019.
      • June 2019
      • Teaching Note

      CEWD: Closing the Skills Gap

      By: William R. Kerr and Ted Smalley Bowen
      Teaching Note for HBS No. 818-081. The teaching note presents background, case details, and teaching strategies, along with board plans and supporting graphics. View Details
      Keywords: Competency and Skills; Training; Demographics; Economics; Education; Energy; Jobs and Positions; Intellectual Property; Labor; Knowledge; Leadership; Management; Marketing; Organizations; Outcome or Result; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Projects; Relationships; Risk and Uncertainty; Science; Technology; Energy Industry; North and Central America
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      Kerr, William R., and Ted Smalley Bowen. "CEWD: Closing the Skills Gap." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 819-133, June 2019.
      • June 2019
      • Article

      Social Risk, Fiscal Risk, and the Portfolio of Government Programs

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, David S. Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam
      We develop a model of government portfolio choice in which a benevolent government chooses the scale of risky projects in the presence of market failures and tax distortions. These two frictions generate motives to manage social risk and fiscal risk. Social risk... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Government and Politics; Programs
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      Hanson, Samuel G., David S. Scharfstein, and Adi Sunderam. "Social Risk, Fiscal Risk, and the Portfolio of Government Programs." Review of Financial Studies 32, no. 6 (June 2019): 2341–2382. (Internet Appendix Here.)
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