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    • All HBS Web  (536)
      • Faculty Publications  (90)

      Demand EstimationRemove Demand Estimation →

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      • 2013
      • Dissertation

      Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics

      By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
      Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers... View Details
      Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups
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      Lee, Clarence, Vineet Kumar, and Sunil Gupta. "Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics." Diss., Harvard Business School, 2013. (Job Market Paper.)
      • Article

      When Talk Is "Free": The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage Under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs

      By: Eva Ascarza, Anja Lambrecht and Naufel Vilcassim
      In many service industries, firms introduce three-part tariffs to replace or complement existing two-part tariffs. In contrast with two-part tariffs, three-part tariffs offer allowances, or “free” units of the service. Behavioral research suggests that the attributes... View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Nonlinear Pricing; Discrete/continuous Choice Model; Three-part Tariffs; Free Products; Price; Consumer Behavior; Analysis; Learning; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Ascarza, Eva, Anja Lambrecht, and Naufel Vilcassim. When Talk Is "Free": The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage Under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs. Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 49, no. 6 (December 2012): 882–900.
      • Article

      Advertising, the Matchmaker

      By: Bharat N. Anand and Ron Shachar
      We empirically study the informational role of advertising in matching consumers with products when consumers are uncertain about both observable and unobserved program attributes. Our focus is on the network television industry, in which the products are television... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Information; Consumer Behavior; Television Entertainment; Risk and Uncertainty; Product; Decision Choices and Conditions; Advertising Industry
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      Anand, Bharat N., and Ron Shachar. "Advertising, the Matchmaker." RAND Journal of Economics 42, no. 2 (Summer 2011): 205–245. (Lead Article.)
      • March 2011 (Revised December 2012)
      • Case

      Demand Media

      By: John Deighton and Leora Kornfeld
      Google search had helped Demand Media grow to be a $1.9 billion online publisher. Then, social media and smartphone apps began to change the way people navigated the Internet. How should Demand Media respond? The business ran on a radically new model in which a stable... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Information Publishing; Consumer Behavior; Customization and Personalization; Internet and the Web; Publishing Industry
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      Deighton, John, and Leora Kornfeld. "Demand Media." Harvard Business School Case 511-043, March 2011. (Revised December 2012.) (request a courtesy copy.)
      • March 2011
      • Module Note

      Quantitative Analysis of Competitive Position: Customer Demand and Willingness to Pay

      By: David J. Collis
      This note is designed to provide strategists with tools to perform two critical customer-related analyses: determining willingness to pay — the estimation of how much a given customer would be willing to pay for a particular product or service; and demand estimation —... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Demand and Consumers; Competitive Advantage; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Market Participation; Segmentation
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      Collis, David J. "Quantitative Analysis of Competitive Position: Customer Demand and Willingness to Pay." Harvard Business School Module Note 711-495, March 2011.
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      How Does Simplified Disclosure Affect Individuals' Mutual Fund Choices?

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
      We use an experiment to estimate the effect of the SEC's Summary Prospectus, which simplifies mutual fund disclosure. Our subjects chose an equity portfolio and a bond portfolio. Subjects received either statutory prospectuses or Summary Prospectuses. We find no... View Details
      Keywords: Information; Corporate Disclosure; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Retirement; Personal Finance; Investment Funds; Microeconomics
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "How Does Simplified Disclosure Affect Individuals' Mutual Fund Choices?" In Explorations in the Economics of Aging, edited by David A. Wise, 75–96. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2011.
      • June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
      • Case

      Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit?

      By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi
      Classic Knitwear manufactures and distributes casual apparel, either unbranded or under a private-label brand name. Partly because Classic has no brand recognition with consumers, gross margins are low. To improve margins, the company considers partnering via a... View Details
      Keywords: Market Research; Forecasting; Consumer Marketing; New Product Marketing; Product Lines; Merchandising; Branding; Demand and Consumers; Partners and Partnerships; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Manufacturing Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Quelch, John A., and Patricia Girardi. "Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit?" Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-217, June 2010. (Revised July 2011.)
      • February 2010
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 510-081, February 2010.
      • Article

      The Cost Structure, Customer Profitability, and Retention Implications of Self-Service Distribution Channels: Evidence from Customer Behavior in an Online Banking Channel

      By: Dennis Campbell and Frances X. Frei
      This paper uses the context of online banking to investigate the consequences of employing self-service distribution channels to alter customer interactions with the firm. Using a sample of retail banking customers observed over a 30-month period at a large U.S. bank,... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Service Operations; Distribution Channels; Consumer Behavior; Internet and the Web; Banks and Banking; Technology Adoption; Service Delivery; Market Transactions; Market Participation; Profit; Retail Industry; Banking Industry; United States
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      Campbell, Dennis, and Frances X. Frei. "The Cost Structure, Customer Profitability, and Retention Implications of Self-Service Distribution Channels: Evidence from Customer Behavior in an Online Banking Channel." Management Science 56, no. 1 (January 2010): 4–24. (Lead Article.)
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      The Impact of Employer Matching on Savings Plan Participation under Automatic Enrollment

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
      Existing research has documented the large impact that automatic enrollment has on savings plan participation. All the companies examined in these studies, however, have combined automatic enrollment with an employer match. This raises a question about how effective... View Details
      Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Investment Funds; Microeconomics; Compensation and Benefits
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "The Impact of Employer Matching on Savings Plan Participation under Automatic Enrollment." In Research Findings in the Economics of Aging, edited by David A. Wise, 311–327. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?

      By: Raghuram Iyengar, Sangman Han and Sunil Gupta

      Social networks, such as Facebook and Myspace have witnessed a rapid growth in their membership. Some of these businesses have tried an advertising-based model with very limited success. However, these businesses have not fully explored the power of their members to... View Details

      Keywords: Marketing; Network Effects; Sales; Power and Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Web Sites; South Korea
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      Iyengar, Raghuram, Sangman Han, and Sunil Gupta. "Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-123, April 2009.
      • May 2009
      • Article

      Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads

      By: Victoria Ivashina
      The paper estimates the cost arising from information asymmetry between the lead bank and members of the lending syndicate. In a lending syndicate, the lead bank retains only a fraction of the loan but acts as the intermediary between the borrower and the syndicate... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Capital; Investment Portfolio; Credit; Diversification; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Ivashina, Victoria. "Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads." Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 2 (May 2009): 300–319.
      • 2008
      • Chapter

      Allocating Marketing Resources

      By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh

      Companies spend billions of dollars on marketing every year because it is essential to organic growth. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate resources and to demonstrate that their investments generate... View Details

      Keywords: Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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      Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." In Marketing Mix Decisions: New Perspectives and Practices, edited by Roger A. Kerin and Rob O'Regan. Chicago, IL: American Marketing Association, 2008.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Allocating Marketing Resources

      By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh
      Marketing is essential for the organic growth of a company. Not surprisingly, firms spend billions of dollars on marketing. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate these resources and demonstrate that these... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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      Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-069, February 2008.
      • fall 2007
      • Article

      Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

      By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      The Value of a 'Free' Customer

      By: Sunil Gupta, Carl F. Mela and Jose M. Vidal-Sanz

      Central to a firm's growth and marketing policy is the revenus and profit potential of its customer assets. As a result, there has been a recent proliferation of work regarding customer lifetime value. However, extant research in this area is silent regarding how to... View Details

      Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Auctions; Network Effects; Business Strategy
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      Gupta, Sunil, Carl F. Mela, and Jose M. Vidal-Sanz. "The Value of a 'Free' Customer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-035, December 2006.
      • December 2005 (Revised August 2006)
      • Case

      Amgen Inc.'s Epogen--Commercializing the First Biotech Blockbuster Drug

      By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Dennis A. Yao
      Amgen Inc.'s Epogen was the first biotech blockbuster drug. Epogen helped prevent anemia, a condition that leads to severe fatigue, increased risk of cardiovascular disease, and even death. At the time, the market for Epogen, which included dialysis patients and... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Strategic Planning; Competition; Patents; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States
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      Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, and Dennis A. Yao. "Amgen Inc.'s Epogen--Commercializing the First Biotech Blockbuster Drug." Harvard Business School Case 706-454, December 2005. (Revised August 2006.)
      • August 2001 (Revised February 2005)
      • Case

      Dakota Office Products

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      The senior management team of Dakota, an office products distributor, is concerned about the company's first loss in history. Explores the role for activity based costing and customer profitability measurement in a distribution company. Dakota's customers are... View Details
      Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Profit; Distribution; Customers; Distribution Industry
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Dakota Office Products." Harvard Business School Case 102-021, August 2001. (Revised February 2005.)
      • 2000
      • Working Paper

      Estimating Retail Demand and Lost Sales

      By: Ananth Raman and Giulio Zotteri
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      Raman, Ananth, and Giulio Zotteri. "Estimating Retail Demand and Lost Sales." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 01-006, August 2000.
      • January 1998 (Revised July 2019)
      • Case

      Cafes Monte Bianco: Building a Profit Plan

      By: Robert L. Simons and Antonio Davila
      Alert: This case has been revised since its original publication; all amounts have been converted to euros and the dates have been updated to 2020. If you’ve taught with this case in the past, please note that changes may affect teaching plans and classroom use. Using... View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Planning; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Profit; Financial Statements; Food and Beverage Industry; Italy
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      Simons, Robert L., and Antonio Davila. "Cafes Monte Bianco: Building a Profit Plan." Harvard Business School Case 198-088, January 1998. (Revised July 2019.)
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