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- All HBS Web (191)
- Faculty Publications (145)
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- 2023
- Chapter
Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models
By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details
Cavallo, Alberto, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara. "Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models." In ECB Forum on Central Banking 26-28 June 2023, Sintra, Portugal: Macroeconomic Stabilisation in a Volatile Inflation Environment. European Central Bank, 2023.
- November 2004
- Article
Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be... View Details
Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker." Review of Economics and Statistics 86, no. 4 (November 2004): 911–23.
- Article
Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation
By: Alberto Cavallo
Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official... View Details
Keywords: Inflation; Online Price Index; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Latin America; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto. "Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation." Journal of Monetary Economics 60, no. 2 (March 2013): 152–165.
- December 2013 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015
By: Rafael Di Tella and Fernanda Miguel
In late October 2011, after losing 1 billion of dollar reserves in one month, the Argentine government began imposing a series of currency controls, limiting the ability to buy foreign currency. As of October 2011, Argentina's tax collection agency AFIP had been... View Details
Di Tella, Rafael, and Fernanda Miguel. "Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015." Harvard Business School Case 714-036, December 2013. (Revised March 2024.)
- July 1986
- Article
Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment
By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and R. S. Ruback
Baldwin, Carliss Y., and R. S. Ruback. "Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment." Journal of Finance 41, no. 3 (July 1986): 657–668.
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
- December 1999 (Revised November 2010)
- Background Note
Inflation Accounting and Analysis
By: David F. Hawkins
Describes alternative approaches to accounting for business activities during periods of inflation. Presents hints and techniques for analyzing financial statements during inflationary periods. A rewritten version of an earlier note. View Details
Hawkins, David F. "Inflation Accounting and Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 100-063, December 1999. (Revised November 2010.)
- June 2002 (Revised March 2003)
- Case
Bolivia: Globalization, Sovereignty, or Democracy?
By: Rafael M. Di Tella, Huw Pill, Miguel Lopez de Silanes Gomez, Cinthia Fernholz Violand and Ingrid Vogel
Describes the economic stabilization program implemented by the Bolivian government in 1985 to 1986 and its impact on the development process in Bolivia. View Details
Keywords: History; Programs; Development Economics; Inflation and Deflation; Globalization; Government and Politics; Bolivia
Di Tella, Rafael M., Huw Pill, Miguel Lopez de Silanes Gomez, Cinthia Fernholz Violand, and Ingrid Vogel. "Bolivia: Globalization, Sovereignty, or Democracy?" Harvard Business School Case 702-086, June 2002. (Revised March 2003.)
- 2016
- Chapter
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
- February 2004 (Revised March 2010)
- Case
Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics
By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
In October 2002, Brazilians elected a left-wing president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, for the first time in that country's history. As markets faltered in response, Lula sought to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal discipline, a floating exchange rate, and inflation... View Details
Keywords: Economy; Inflation and Deflation; Money; Borrowing and Debt; Policy; Emerging Markets; Brazil
Alfaro, Laura, Rafael M. Di Tella, and Ingrid Vogel. "Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics." Harvard Business School Case 704-028, February 2004. (Revised March 2010.)
- Article
Inflation and Taxes in a Growing Economy with Debt and Equity
By: M. Feldstein, Jerry R. Green and Eytan Sheshinski
Our tax system was designed for an economy with little or no inflation. The current paper shows that inflation causes capricious changes in the effective rate of tax on capital income and therefore in the real net rate of return that savers receive. This is not only a... View Details
Feldstein, M., Jerry R. Green, and Eytan Sheshinski. "Inflation and Taxes in a Growing Economy with Debt and Equity." Special Issue on Research in Taxation. Journal of Political Economy 86, no. 2 pt. 2 (April 1978): S53–S70.
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- August 2010 (Revised February 2012)
- Supplement
Cosmeticos de Espana, S.A. (B)
By: David F. Hawkins
Second case in the Cosmeticos de Espana case series. What should management's accounting response be to a devaluation of the Bolivar? View Details
Keywords: Financial Statements; Decision Choices and Conditions; Inflation and Deflation; Currency Exchange Rate; Beauty and Cosmetics Industry; Spain; Venezuela
Hawkins, David F. "Cosmeticos de Espana, S.A. (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 111-020, August 2010. (Revised February 2012.)
- August 2010 (Revised February 2012)
- Case
Cosmeticos de Espana, S.A. (A)
By: David F. Hawkins
Management must decide which exchange rate to use to consolidate the company's Venezuelan subsidiary. View Details
Keywords: Financial Statements; Business Subsidiaries; Inflation and Deflation; Currency Exchange Rate; Beauty and Cosmetics Industry; Spain; Venezuela
Hawkins, David F. "Cosmeticos de Espana, S.A. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 111-019, August 2010. (Revised February 2012.)
- July 1997
- Case
Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS)
Explores the development of a new product offering based on the first issuance of "real" bonds in the United States. Looks at a specific organization's efforts to position itself to profit from this market development. Follows naturally from a case on nominal bonds. View Details
Das, Sanjiv R., and Jeffrey T. Slovin. "Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS)." Harvard Business School Case 298-017, July 1997.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Fiscal Policy under Convex Supply Curves
By: Shlok Goyal, Avi Lipton and Borui Niklas Zhu
Recent empirical evidence suggests that supply curves are convex. Supply curve convexity is at odds with conventional Phillips curves, which rely on an infinitely elastic underlying supply curve. This paper explores the effect of supply curve convexity on the... View Details
Keywords: Fiscal Stimulus; Fiscal Policy; Inflation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Policy; Mathematical Methods; United States
Goyal, Shlok, Avi Lipton, and Borui Niklas Zhu. "Fiscal Policy under Convex Supply Curves." Working Paper, August 2024.
- February 1990
- Article
Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments
By: J. J. Rotemberg and James Poterba
Rotemberg, J. J., and James Poterba. "Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments." Journal of Money, Credit & Banking 22 (February 1990): 1–19.
- January 2004 (Revised August 2004)
- Supplement
Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (B)
By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton
In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details
Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Financial Instruments; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Financial Institutions; Innovation and Invention; United States
Froot, Kenneth A., Peter A. Hecht, and Christopher Edward James Payton. "Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 204-113, January 2004. (Revised August 2004.)
- June 2003
- Article
Thinking Real: Key to Financial Analysis in Deflationary Periods
By: David Hawkins
Hawkins, David. "Thinking Real: Key to Financial Analysis in Deflationary Periods." Accounting Bulletin, no. 119 (June 2003).
- 2025
- Working Paper
Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain
By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano
We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details
Alvarez-Blaser, Santiago, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay, and Paolo Mengano. "Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-009, August 2024. (Revised February 2025.)