Publications
Publications
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(191)
- Faculty Publications (108)
- 2010
- Working Paper
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
- 2010
- Chapter
The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno
This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,... View Details
- March 2009 (Revised May 2013)
- Supplement
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (B)
By: Laura Alfaro and Akiko Kanno
Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, faced a complex situation in the fall of 2007. An economic recovery had allowed the central bank to abandon its zero interest rate policy, which had been in place for years, and raise rates to 0.5%. The Bank of Japan was... View Details
- 2009
- Other Unpublished Work
Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises
By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
- Article
Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
By: John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller and Luis M. Viceira
- 2009
- Working Paper
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
- March 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Policy Reactions (A)
By: Laura Alfaro and Renee Kim
By March 2008, the U.S. Government and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board had taken various policy measures over the last few months to tackle the subprime mortgage crisis that threatened to drag the economy into a recession. The Bush administration approved a fiscal... View Details
- January 2008 (Revised April 2009)
- Case
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (A)
By: Laura Alfaro and Akiko Kanno
Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, faced a complex situation in the fall of 2007. An economic recovery had allowed the central bank to abandon its zero interest rate policy, which had been in place for years, and raise rates to 0.5%. The Bank of Japan was... View Details
- December 2007 (Revised July 2008)
- Case
General Mills (A)
By: Raymond V. Gilmartin, Marco Iansiti and Bianca Buccitelli
General Mills is an 80-year-old company that specializes in consumer foods such as cereal, snacks, baking, and dinner products. Although General Mills is, on the whole, a very successful company, they have, in the recent past, had to face challenges as a result the... View Details
- November 2005
- Teaching Note
Japan: Deficits, Demography and Deflation (TN)
- July 2005 (Revised December 2006)
- Case
Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation
By 2005, Japan's debt had risen to 163% of GDP. For more than a decade, the government had run huge deficits, trying unsuccessfully to stimulate economic growth. Interest rates, meanwhile, had been zero for years. But with slow growth and banks in crisis, nothing had... View Details
- June 2005
- Article
Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role... View Details
- March 2005 (Revised June 2005)
- Case
Capital Controls in Chile in the 1990s (B)
By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
Supplements the (A) case. View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
- November 2004
- Article
Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be... View Details
- May 2004 (Revised July 2004)
- Case
Clarence Saunders: The Comeback King
By: Nitin Nohria and Bridget Gurtler
Follows the rise and fall of the founder of the modern supermarket, Clarence Saunders. Prior to 1915, all staple shopping took place in the market or general store, where a clerk behind a counter pulled items from shelves for customers , measured them from a barrel, or... View Details
- May 2004 (Revised November 2005)
- Case
Turkey: Securing Stability in a Rough Neighborhood
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Emily Thompson
After suffering years of volatility and crises, Turkey desperately sought macroeconomic and political stability in an ever-worsening region of the world. In the short term, Turkey had to repay its debt, which amounted to more than 80% of GDP. By January 2004, Turkey... View Details
- May 2004 (Revised July 2008)
- Teaching Note
Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics (TN)
By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
Teaching Note to (9-704-028). View Details
- March 2004
- Article
Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption
By: Miguel Braun and Rafael Di Tella
We present a model where agents can inflate the cost of goods needed to start an investment project and inflation variability increases monitoring costs. We show that inflation variability can lead to higher corruption and lower investment. We document a positive... View Details
- February 2004 (Revised March 2010)
- Case
Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics
By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
In October 2002, Brazilians elected a left-wing president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, for the first time in that country's history. As markets faltered in response, Lula sought to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal discipline, a floating exchange rate, and inflation... View Details
Keywords: Economy; Inflation and Deflation; Money; Borrowing and Debt; Policy; Emerging Markets; Brazil