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      • November 2024
      • Teaching Note

      Mercado Bitcoin: M&A, IPO, or Series B?

      By: Raymond Kluender, Emanuele Colonnelli and Sabrina Howell
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 825-047. In April 2021, Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin, had to decide how to scale: go public, M&A with a bank, or take a VC big check. In a highly volatile market, Roberto Dagnoni, chairman of the board, viewed the... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Decision Making; Going Public; Ownership Stake; Strategic Planning; Venture Capital; Problems and Challenges; Business Cycles; Digital Platforms; Emerging Markets; Market Timing; Expansion; Diversification; Valuation; Value Creation; Investment Funds; Initial Public Offering; Price; Price Bubble; Negotiation Offer; Information Technology Industry; Financial Services Industry; Brazil; Latin America
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      Kluender, Raymond, Emanuele Colonnelli, and Sabrina Howell. "Mercado Bitcoin: M&A, IPO, or Series B?" Harvard Business School Teaching Note 825-092, November 2024.
      • November 2024 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      MiDAS: Automating Unemployment Benefits

      By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
      In 2015, the state of Michigan considered whether to nominate its Michigan Integrated Data Automated System (MiDAS) for a prestigious state technology award. Launched in 2013 amid severe budget pressures, the $47 million automated fraud detection system was designed to... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; AI; Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Data; Automation; Benefits; Compensation; Cost Reduction; Government; Fraud; Government Technology; Public Sector; Systems; Systems Integration; Unemployment Insurance; Waste Heat Recovery; AI and Machine Learning; Government Administration; Insurance; Decision Making; Digital Transformation; Employment; Public Administration Industry; United States; Michigan
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      Ghosh, Shikhar, and Shweta Bagai. "MiDAS: Automating Unemployment Benefits." Harvard Business School Case 825-100, November 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
      • November 2024
      • Case

      Innovation at Master Kong Beverages

      By: David E. Bell and Shu Lin
      Hong-Chen Wei (HBS MBA 2014), Chairman of KSF Beverage Holding Co., Ltd. (KSFB), was steering the company toward the premium segment with the launch of “InheriTea,” a premium, sugar-free tea product. Traditionally, KSFB’s flagship brand, Master Kong, catered to the... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Trends; Behavior; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Product Development; Segmentation; Organizational Culture; Product Positioning; Food and Beverage Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Asia; China
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      Bell, David E., and Shu Lin. "Innovation at Master Kong Beverages." Harvard Business School Case 525-037, November 2024.
      • November 2024 (Revised March 2025)
      • Case

      Tim Ferriss: What Might This Look like If It Were Easy?

      By: Reza Satchu and Denise Koller
      In April 2024, writer-podcaster Tim Ferriss—celebrated as the “Oprah of audio” for his billion-download show and known for NYT-bestsellers like The 4-Hour Workweek—found himself at a crossroads. Despite generating a multi-million-dollar annual revenue with just three... View Details
      Keywords: Transition; Personal Development and Career; Business Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Satchu, Reza, and Denise Koller. "Tim Ferriss: What Might This Look like If It Were Easy?" Harvard Business School Case 825-091, November 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Advice and the Bayesian Entrepreneur

      By: Susan Cohen and Rembrand Koning
      Bayesian entrepreneurship starts from the premise that entrepreneurs’ beliefs guide their theorizing, experimentation, and choices (Agrawal et al., n.d.). Since each entrepreneur has unique beliefs based on their own set of past experiences, cognitive ability, and... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Cohen, Susan, and Rembrand Koning. "Advice and the Bayesian Entrepreneur." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-029, November 2024.
      • November–December 2024
      • Article

      Group Size and Its Impact on Diversity-Related Perceptions and Hiring Decisions in Homogeneous Groups

      By: Aneesh Rai, Edward H. Chang, Erika Kirgios and Katherine L. Milkman
      Why do some homogeneous groups face backlash for lacking diversity, whereas others escape censure? We show that a homogeneous group’s size changes how it is perceived and whether decision makers pursue greater diversity in its ranks. We theorize that people make... View Details
      Keywords: Diversity; Perception; Decision Making; Groups and Teams; Selection and Staffing; Size
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      Rai, Aneesh, Edward H. Chang, Erika Kirgios, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Group Size and Its Impact on Diversity-Related Perceptions and Hiring Decisions in Homogeneous Groups." Organization Science 35, no. 6 (November–December 2024): 1990–2015.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

      By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
      Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details
      Keywords: Voting Behavior; Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Theory; Governance Transparency; Government; Democracy; Turnout; Voting; Governance; Government and Politics; Public Sector; Political Elections
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      Kaplow, Louis, and Scott Duke Kominers. "On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout." Journal of Law & Economics 67, no. 4 (November 2024): 879–904.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      Perceptions About Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 4 (November 2024): 2227–2278.
      • 2024
      • Article

      Political Polarization and Finance

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and... View Details
      Keywords: Government and Politics; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Governance
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Political Polarization and Finance." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 413–434.
      • October 2024
      • Teaching Plan

      Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble

      By: Lou Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
      In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
      Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
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      Shipley, Lou, and Stacy Straaberg. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble." Harvard Business School Teaching Plan 825-003, October 2024.
      • October 2024
      • Case

      GLIN Impact Capital

      By: Ethan Rouen and Akiko Saito
      In 2024, the co-founders of the venture capital fund GLIN Impact Capital face a critical inflection point as they consider launching a second, significantly larger impact investment fund in Japan. Founded in 2021 by the three Harvard Business School alumni, GLIN is one... View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Investment Funds; Growth and Development Strategy; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Power and Influence; Japan
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      Rouen, Ethan, and Akiko Saito. "GLIN Impact Capital." Harvard Business School Case 125-053, October 2024.
      • October 2024
      • Background Note

      Outsourcing Primer

      By: Willy C. Shih
      This note provides some background on one of the key resource allocation decisions managers make as they develop and produce products and services: what should they do with the walls of their own firm, and what they should depend upon suppliers or contractors to... View Details
      Keywords: Outsourcing; Offshoring And Outsourcing; Production; Product Development; Resource Allocation; Supply Chain Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C. "Outsourcing Primer." Harvard Business School Background Note 625-069, October 2024.
      • October 2024
      • Supplement

      NOW PT (A)

      By: George A Riedel, Allison J. Wigen and Dave Habeeb
      Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.

      Abstract: In fall 2021, a team of students from the HBS Impact Investing Fund considered Neurologic Optimal Wellness Physical... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Investment; Business Model; Health Industry; United States
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      Riedel, George A., Allison J. Wigen, and Dave Habeeb. "NOW PT (A)." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 325-701, October 2024.
      • October 2024
      • Supplement

      NOW PT (B)

      By: George A Riedel, Allison J. Wigen and Dave Habeeb
      Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.

      Abstract: In fall 2021, a team of students from the HBS Impact Investing Fund considered Neurologic Optimal Wellness Physical... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Business Model; Investment; Health Industry; United States
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      Riedel, George A., Allison J. Wigen, and Dave Habeeb. "NOW PT (B)." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 325-702, October 2024.
      • October 2024
      • Article

      Canary Categories

      By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
      Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
      Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
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      Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
      • October 2024
      • Article

      How to Use Sales Assessments

      By: Frank V. Cespedes
      Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Sales
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      Cespedes, Frank V. "How to Use Sales Assessments." Top Sales Magazine (October 2024), 10–11.
      • October 2024
      • Article

      On Why Women-owned Businesses Take More Time to Secure Microloans

      By: Goran Calic, Moren Lévesque and Anton Shevchenko
      Examining gender differences in business financing reveals important dimensions on which women- and men-owned businesses differ. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding gender differences in mobilizing resources, the role of time in business... View Details
      Keywords: Microfinance; Gender; Financing and Loans; Equality and Inequality; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship
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      Calic, Goran, Moren Lévesque, and Anton Shevchenko. "On Why Women-owned Businesses Take More Time to Secure Microloans." Small Business Economics 63, no. 3 (October 2024): 917–938.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

      By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
      Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
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      Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
      • Fall, 2024
      • Article

      Sixty Years of the Voting Rights Act: Progress and Pitfalls

      By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa
      We review the literature on the effects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA), which removed formal restrictions to Black political participation. After a brief description of racial discrimination suffered by Black Americans since Reconstruction, we introduce the goals... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Equality and Inequality; Race; Political Elections; Voting; Policy; Outcome or Result; Government Legislation
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      Bernini, Andrea, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini, and Cecilia Testa. "Sixty Years of the Voting Rights Act: Progress and Pitfalls." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 40, no. 3 (Fall, 2024): 486–497.
      • October 2024 (Revised May 2025)
      • Case

      Southern California Industrial: Freezer Drive

      By: Arthur I Segel, Dwight Angelini and W. Matt Kelly
      In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Boston based real estate private equity firm was seeking to make their very first West Coast investments in hopes of establishing their presence in the strategic region. An exciting property suddenly became available on the... View Details
      Keywords: Real Estate Development; Acquisition; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Expansion; Cost vs Benefits; Investment Return; Real Estate Industry
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      Segel, Arthur I., Dwight Angelini, and W. Matt Kelly. "Southern California Industrial: Freezer Drive." Harvard Business School Case 225-015, October 2024. (Revised May 2025.)
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