Publications

15 Aug 2016
News

How to Tackle Your Toughest Decisions

Research Summary

Overview

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju

I develop machine learning tools and techniques which enable human decision makers to make better decisions. More specifically, my research addresses the following fundamental questions pertaining to human and algorithmic decision-making:

1. How to build... View Details

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Decision Analysis; Decision Support

March 2006
Module Note

Financing Decisions within the Firm

By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs

Describes a core module in the International Finance course at Harvard Business School. The module focuses on the financial and managerial issues that confront managers who make financial decisions within multinational firms: how subsidiaries should be financed and... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; International Finance; Taxation; Business Subsidiaries; Multinational Firms and Management; Framework; Performance Evaluation; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

May 1979 (Revised August 2013)
Background Note

Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments

By: William J. Poorvu

Develops a conceptual framework for financial analysis of real estate investments, taking into consideration the necessity for baseline data, project trends, and forecast discontinuities. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Trends; Real Estate Industry; Financial Services Industry

June 2020
Article

The Isolated Choice Effect and Its Implications for Gender Diversity in Organizations

By: Edward H. Chang, Erika L. Kirgios, Aneesh Rai and Katherine L. Milkman

We highlight a feature of personnel selection decisions that can influence the gender diversity of groups and teams. Specifically, we show that people are less likely to choose candidates whose gender would increase group diversity when making personnel selections in... View Details

Keywords: Behavior And Behavioral Decision Making; Organizational Studies; Decision Analysis; Economics; Decision Making; Behavior; Analysis; Organizations; Diversity; Gender

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April 1982 (Revised June 1985)
Case

Westinghouse Electric Corp.: Quality of Earnings Analysis

Westinghouse had just issued its annual report to shareholders for the year ending December 31, 1973. The report indicates that sales have increased to a record $5.7 billion but that net income is down almost 20% from its record level of $199 million in the previous... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Financial Reporting; Corporate Finance; Electronics Industry

February 1984 (Revised August 1985)
Background Note

Note on Preference Analysis

By: David E. Bell

Keywords: Voting

February 1991 (Revised November 1993)
Supplement

Investment Analysis and Lockheed Tri Star

A set of five exercises in capital budgeting. Student calculates and compares various decision criteria (including IRR and NPV) for capital investment projects. This is an introductory case, where relevant cash flows are provided, and the focus is on the discounting... View Details

Keywords: Capital Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Air Transportation Industry

Article

How to Tackle Your Toughest Decisions

By: Joseph L. Badaracco

The toughest calls managers have to make come in situations when they have worked hard to gather the facts and have done the best analysis they can, but they still don’t know what to do. Then judgment—a fusion of thinking, feelings, experience, imagination, and... View Details

Keywords: Management; Judgments

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Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

Article

Collection, Exploration and Analysis of Crowdfunding Social Networks

By: Miao Cheng, Anand Sriramulu, Sudarshan Muralidhar, Boon Thau Loo, Laura Huang and Po-Ling Loh

Crowdfunding is a recent financing phenomenon that is gaining wide popularity as a means for startups to raise seed funding for their companies. This paper presents our initial results at understanding this phenomenon using an exploratory data driven approach. We have... View Details

December 2007
Article

Applying Modern Risk Management to Equity and Credit Analysis

By: Robert C. Merton

Traditional conventions of accounting and actuarial science distort the valuation of capital risk in corporations with pension plans because under these conventions, pension assets and liabilities are not included in balance sheet calculations. The modern risk... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Valuation; Financial Reporting; Decision Making; Credit; Financial Statements; Capital; Equity; Compensation and Benefits

September 1997 (Revised February 2000)
Exercise

Exercises in Option Pricing and Real Option Analysis

By: Benjamin C. Esty

Contains five problems, one each on basic option pricing, abandonment value, the value of waiting to invest, contingent claims analysis (equity as a call option), and strategic decision making in an option framework. The goal is for students to recognize option value... View Details

Keywords: Stock Options; Price

March 2015 (Revised December 2016)
Case

American Well: The DTC Decision

By: Elie Ofek and Natalie Kindred

In late 2013, telehealth company American Well, which developed a digital platform that allowed patients to conduct online medical consultations with physicians, is considering pursuing a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy. Founded in 2006, American Well had, to date,... View Details

16 Aug 2010
Lessons from the Classroom

HBS Introduces Marketing Analysis Tools for Managers

outside the classroom? A: The marketing analysis toolkits were designed to provide a quantitative foundation for analyzing marketing decisions and an analytical structure and process for completing a... View Details

Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert

October 2006 (Revised August 2008)
Background Note

Performing Industry Research to Inform Investment Decisions

Conducting thorough research about an industry is often an important component of investment analysis. Written specifically for HBS MBA students, provides guidance on how to perform industry research to inform investment decisions. Provides detailed information about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Investment; Supply and Industry; Research

20 Oct 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Pol Antras, Davin Chor & Paola Conconi

31 Jan 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Behavioral Decision Research, Legislation, and Society: Three Cases

Keywords: by Max H. Bazerman

April 2005
Article

The Geography of Equity Analysis

By: Christopher J. Malloy

I provide evidence that geographically proximate analysts are more accurate than other analysts. Stock returns immediately surrounding forecast revisions suggest that local analysts impact prices more than other analysts. These effects are strongest for firms located... View Details

Keywords: Geographic Location; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Performance; Equity; Information; Prejudice and Bias; Agency Theory