Publications

2017
Working Paper

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the... View Details

Keywords: Small Business; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; System Shocks; Credit; Labor; United States

August 2017 (Revised February 2024)
Teaching Note

Exotic Interest Rate Swaps: Snowballs in Portugal

By: Boris Vallee, Patrick Augustin and Philippe Rich

This case explores a complex swap transaction implemented by Metro do Porto in 2007. It represents an opportunity to study fixed income derivative instruments, such as plain-vanilla swaps and structured swaps, as well as understand the opportunities and challenges of... View Details

Keywords: Swaps; Public Finance; Structured Finance; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Public Sector; Transportation Industry; Rail Industry; Portugal

2010
Working Paper

Banking Market Concentration and Consumer Credit Constraints: Evidence from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances

This paper uses data from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances to test the relationship between the banks' market power and households' self-reported levels of credit constraints. The 1983 Survey was the last to identify households' geographic location, making it... View Details

Keywords: Age Characteristics; Household Characteristics; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Geographic Location; Banking Industry

28 Aug 2014
Op-Ed

Government Can Do More to Unfreeze Small Business Credit

(Editor's note: This is the third in a series of articles based on a Harvard Business School working paper by Karen Mills that analyzes the current state of availability of bank capital for small business.) Access to credit is critical to... View Details

Keywords: by Karen Mills; Banking

November 2017
Article

Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

Can a credit expansion induce a boom and bust in house prices and real economic activity? This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy.... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Credit Supply; Credit Expansion; Household Leverage; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Mortgages; Laws and Statutes; Credit; Household; Borrowing and Debt; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation

April 2023
Article

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu

We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details

Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity

August 2006
Article

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann

In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management

2022
Working Paper

The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans

By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim

Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers... View Details

Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability Management; Credit Products; Loan Contracts; Loans; Corporate Finance; Credit Risk; Environment; ESG; ESG Ratings; Climate Change; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit

September 2021
Article

Did Technology Contribute to the Housing Boom? Evidence from MERS

By: Stefan Lewellen and Emily Williams

We examine the effects of the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, or MERS, on mortgage origination volumes and foreclosure rates prior to the Great Recession. MERS was introduced in the late 1990s and significantly reduced the cost and time associated with... View Details

Keywords: Credit Supply; Housing Boom; Financial Innovation; Nonbank Lenders; Mortgages; Credit; Expansion; Information Technology; Outcome or Result

21 Jul 2014
Research & Ideas

Is a Gap in Small-Business Credit Holding Back the American Economy?

engine for innovation and job creation to drive competitiveness, while also providing a path to a prosperous lifestyle for countless American families. But today, small businesses are not creating these jobs at the rate that we need. The... View Details

Keywords: by Karen Mills; Manufacturing

2020
Working Paper

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu

We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001–2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details

Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity

Research Summary

Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details

February 2018
Case

Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments

By: John Macomber and Pippa Tubman Armerding

The so-called “infrastructure finance gap” was a problem in Nigeria as in many parts of the world. Infrastructure projects like power plants and dams were very large capital investments that could generate long-term consistent cash flows, but their financing and... View Details

Keywords: Pension Fund Investing; Infrastucture; Power/Energy; Credit Enhancement; Infrastructure; Project Finance; Investment Funds; Emerging Markets; Nigeria; Africa

February 2021
Article

A Dynamic Theory of Multiple Borrowing

By: Daniel Green and Ernest Liu

Multiple borrowing—a borrower obtains overlapping loans from multiple lenders—is a common phenomenon in many credit markets. We build a highly tractable, dynamic model of multiple borrowing and show that, because overlapping creditors may impose default externalities... View Details

Keywords: Commitment; Multiple Borrowing; Common Agency; Misallocation; Microfinance; Investment; Mathematical Methods

April 2015
Article

Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers

By: Shawn Cole, Martin Kanz and Leora Klapper

This paper uses a series of experiments with commercial bank loan officers to test the effect of performance incentives on risk assessment and lending decisions. We first show that while high-powered incentives lead to greater screening effort and more profitable... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Management Processes; Credit Products; Experimental Economics; Risk Management; Motivation and Incentives; Management Practices and Processes; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

August 2019
Case

ClearScore, 2018

By: John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock

In October 2017, Experian, one of the “Big Three” consumer credit reporting agencies in the United Kingdom made an offer to acquire ClearScore for a total consideration of £293 million. Founded by Justin Basini, Dan Cobley, and Nigel Morris in 2014, ClearScore was the... View Details

April 2017 (Revised February 2020)
Case

Restructuring Ukraine

By: Kristin Mugford, Seema Amble and Tian Feng

In June 2015, Ukraine found itself struggling with a volatile and devalued currency, dramatically diminished foreign reserves, and a projected financing shortfall of $40 billion. Ukraine’s new government sought to return the nation to stability following political... View Details

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Restructuring; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Banks and Banking; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Bonds; Sovereign Finance; Capital Markets; Credit; Debt Securities; Financial Liquidity; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Ukraine

Research Summary

Overview

Having grown up in a developing country, Professor Sikochi’s research focus is driven by a desire to understand how capital flows to firms and entrepreneurs with the ultimate goal to help build capital markets in the developing economies. To this end, he conducts... View Details

March 2014 (Revised June 2015)
Case

Can Mexico Make Democracy Work?

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Jonathan Schlefer

Enrique Peña Nieto, the presidential candidate of the old Mexican ruling party elected in 2012, passed the most fundamental reforms in at least two decades. They included allowing private competition in the energy sector, including with the state-owned oil company,... View Details

Keywords: Democratization; Economic Development; Competition Policy; Exchange Rates; Comparative Advantage; Growth and Development; Government Legislation; Political Elections; Economic Growth; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Energy Industry; Communications Industry; Banking Industry; Latin America; Mexico