Behavioral Decision Making - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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November–December 2024
Article

Group Size and Its Impact on Diversity-Related Perceptions and Hiring Decisions in Homogeneous Groups

By: Aneesh Rai, Edward H. Chang, Erika Kirgios and Katherine L. Milkman

Why do some homogeneous groups face backlash for lacking diversity, whereas others escape censure? We show that a homogeneous group’s size changes how it is perceived and whether decision makers pursue greater diversity in its ranks. We theorize that people make... View Details

Keywords: Diversity; Perception; Decision Making; Groups and Teams; Selection and Staffing; Size

November 2024
Article

On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers

Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details

Keywords: Voting Behavior; Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Theory; Governance Transparency; Government; Democracy; Turnout; Voting; Governance; Government and Politics; Public Sector; Political Elections

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November 2024
Article

Perceptions About Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction

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2024
Article

Political Polarization and Finance

By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura

We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Governance

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November–December 2024
Article

Retire Without Regrets

By: Teresa M. Amabile, Lotte Bailyn, Marcy Crary, Douglas T. "Tim" Hall and Kathy E. Kram

This article explores the significant transition of retirement and offers insights into creating a satisfying postcareer life. It highlights the contrasting experiences of Irene and Lawrence, two retirees who navigated this change differently. Irene embraced retirement... View Details

Keywords: Retirement; Satisfaction; Transition; Identity

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Fall 2024
Article

The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers

By: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru

Households in the United States often rely on financial advisers for investment and savings decisions, yet there is a widespread perception that many advisers are dishonest. This distrust is not unwarranted: approximately one in fifteen advisers has a history of... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Behavioral Finance; Trust; Financial Services Industry

October 2024
Teaching Plan

Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble

By: Lou Shipley and Stacy Straaberg

In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina

October 2024
Case

GLIN Impact Capital

By: Ethan Rouen and Akiko Saito

In 2024, the co-founders of the venture capital fund GLIN Impact Capital face a critical inflection point as they consider launching a second, significantly larger impact investment fund in Japan. Founded in 2021 by the three Harvard Business School alumni, GLIN is one... View Details

Keywords: Venture Capital; Investment Funds; Growth and Development Strategy; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Power and Influence; Japan

October 2024
Background Note

Outsourcing Primer

By: Willy C. Shih

This note provides some background on one of the key resource allocation decisions managers make as they develop and produce products and services: what should they do with the walls of their own firm, and what they should depend upon suppliers or contractors to... View Details

Keywords: Outsourcing; Offshoring And Outsourcing; Production; Product Development; Resource Allocation; Supply Chain Management; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Asia

October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

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October 2024
Article

How to Use Sales Assessments

By: Frank V. Cespedes

Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Sales

October 2024
Article

On Why Women-owned Businesses Take More Time to Secure Microloans

By: Goran Calic, Moren Lévesque and Anton Shevchenko

Examining gender differences in business financing reveals important dimensions on which women- and men-owned businesses differ. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding gender differences in mobilizing resources, the role of time in business... View Details

Keywords: Microfinance; Gender; Financing and Loans; Equality and Inequality; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship

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2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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Fall, 2024
Article

Sixty Years of the Voting Rights Act: Progress and Pitfalls

By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa

We review the literature on the effects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA), which removed formal restrictions to Black political participation. After a brief description of racial discrimination suffered by Black Americans since Reconstruction, we introduce the goals... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Equality and Inequality; Race; Political Elections; Voting; Policy; Outcome or Result; Government Legislation

October 2024 (Revised May 2025)
Case

Southern California Industrial: Freezer Drive

By: Arthur I Segel, Dwight Angelini and W. Matt Kelly

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Boston based real estate private equity firm was seeking to make their very first West Coast investments in hopes of establishing their presence in the strategic region. An exciting property suddenly became available on the... View Details

Keywords: Real Estate Development; Acquisition; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Expansion; Cost vs Benefits; Investment Return; Real Estate Industry

October 2024
Article

Strategic Decision Making at Platform Transitions: The Case of Nokia (2010-2011).

By: Timo O. Vuori and Michael Tushman

We studied Nokia’s decision to adopt the Windows platform in 2011 to induce new theory on the emotional dynamics of incumbent firms’ strategic decision making at platform transitions. We find that platform companies’ entry into an established industry activates a... View Details

Keywords: Emotions; Technology Adoption; Corporate Strategy; Transition

September 2024
Case

Faena: Magic in Mid-Miami Beach

By: Robin Greenwood, Denise Han, Dave Habeeb and Ruth Page

The link to this multimedia case should be provided to students in advance as preparation for classroom case discussion.

This multimedia case follows real estate developer Alan Faena as he expanded his luxury development business from Argentina to the... View Details

September 2024
Case

Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners: Leading the Energy Transition

By: John Macomber and Maxwell Nii Laryea

A leading global infrastructure fund debates whether and when to become engaged in the electrolysis and distribution of hydrogen, as part of the hydrogen economy and the global transtion to a net zero energy world. The proposed billion dollar project consists of wind... View Details

Keywords: Infrastructure; Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Project Finance; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Energy Industry; Spain

September 2024 (Revised January 2025)
Teaching Note

Leading Culture Change at SEB

By: Amy Edmondson and Cat Huang

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 621-074. The Risk organization at SEB, a leading Nordic financial services group founded in 1856, undertook a culture change program focused on psychological safety, empathic listening, and strategic framing. The program enabled risk... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Leading Change; Organizational Culture; Decision Making; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Sweden

September 2024
Supplement

National Public Broadcasting (B)

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

Pre-abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.
Abstract: This (B) case supplement is designed for use by faculty only to support classroom instruction in conjunction with... View Details

Keywords: Financial Strategy; Financial Management; Media; Ownership; Strategy; Advertising; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Mergers and Acquisitions; Private Equity; Journalism and News Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States

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