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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(754)
- News (78)
- Research (563)
- Events (15)
- Multimedia (3)
- Faculty Publications (311)
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- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- August 2006
- Article
Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
- Article
Om det meningslösa och farliga med monetär heroism [On the Futility and Hazards of Monetary Heroics]
By: Amar Bhide
The decentralized enterprise that sustains the dynamism of economies makes top-down monetary interventions, such as quantitative easing, that target aggregates such as overall inflation, futile. Moreover, economic stability and dynamism also require prudent,... View Details
Bhide, Amar. "Om det meningslösa och farliga med monetär heroism [On the Futility and Hazards of Monetary Heroics]." Ekonomisk Debatt 45, no. 4 (2017).
- 2019
- Article
More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors
By: Alberto Cavallo
I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past... View Details
Keywords: Amazon; Online Prices; Inflation; Uniform Pricing; Price Stickiness; Monetary Economics; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; United States
Cavallo, Alberto. "More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors." Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2019).
- 15 Oct 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Vote Choice Formation and the Minimal Effects of TV Debates: Evidence from 61 Elections in 9 OECD Countries
- 2012
- Working Paper
Average Marginal Income Tax Rates in New Zealand, 1907-2009
By: Debasis Bandyopadhyay, Robert J. Barro, Jeremy Couchman, Norman Gemmell, Gordon Y Liao and Fiona McAlister
Estimates of marginal tax rates (MTRs) faced by individual economic agents, and for various aggregates of taxpayers, are important for economists testing behavioural responses to changes in those tax rates. This paper reports estimates of a number of personal marginal... View Details
Bandyopadhyay, Debasis, Robert J. Barro, Jeremy Couchman, Norman Gemmell, Gordon Y Liao, and Fiona McAlister. "Average Marginal Income Tax Rates in New Zealand, 1907-2009." Working Paper, July 2012.
- Article
Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility
By: Diego Comin and Sunil Mulani
This paper documents the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm level. We establish that the upward trend in micro volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied. We argue that this new fact... View Details
Comin, Diego, and Sunil Mulani. "Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility." Review of Economics and Statistics 88, no. 2 (May 2006).
- 2005
- Article
The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences
By: Diego Comin and Thomas Philippon
We document that the recent decline in aggregate volatility has been accompanied by a large increase in firm level risk. The negative relationship between firm and aggregate risk seems to be present across industries in the US, and across OECD countries. Firm... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Risk Management; Relationships; Research and Development; Financing and Loans; Industry Growth; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economy; Outcome or Result; United States
Comin, Diego, and Thomas Philippon. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 20 (2005). (Read an article about this paper in The Washington Post, Newsweek and The Charlotte Observer.)
- December 1994
- Background Note
Cost System Analysis
By: Robert S. Kaplan
Describes six characteristics of cost systems: standard vs. actual costs; job-order vs. process costing; variable vs. full costs; disaggregate vs. aggregate cost accumulation; and specific vs. average rates for labor and overhead. A rewritten version of an earlier... View Details
Kaplan, Robert S. "Cost System Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 195-181, December 1994.
- January 2011 (Revised November 2014)
- Case
Mochi Media
By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Amit Jain
In late 2009, the management of Mochi Media, a venture-backed startup, must decide how to invest scarce resources to achieve continued growth. Mochi has developed a three-sided platform, connecting Flash game developers, sites that aggregate these games, and... View Details
Keywords: Business Model; Business Startups; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Network Effects; Multi-Sided Platforms; Partners and Partnerships; Competition
Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Amit Jain. "Mochi Media." Harvard Business School Case 811-056, January 2011. (Revised November 2014.)
- August 2024
- Article
The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs
By: Jean-Noël Barrot, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée
We investigate the labor market effects of a loan guarantee program targeting French SMEs during the financial crisis. Exploiting differences in regional treatment intensity in a border discontinuity design, we uncover a central trade-off for such interventions. While... View Details
Barrot, Jean-Noël, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat, and Boris Vallée. "The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs." Review of Financial Studies 37, no. 8 (August 2024): 2315–2354.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom
By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin
This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details
van der Beck, Philippe, and Coralie Jaunin. "The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 21-12, November 2023.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- May 2018
- Article
Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production
By: Laura Alfaro and Maggie X. Chen
Assessing the productivity gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research and policy debate. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized... View Details
Keywords: Productivity Gains; Multinational Production; Selection; Market Reallocation; And Within-firm Productivity; Multinational Firms and Management; Production; Performance Productivity; Competition; Mathematical Methods
Alfaro, Laura, and Maggie X. Chen. "Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 10, no. 2 (May 2018): 1–38. (Also NBER Working Paper 18207. See Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12–111, 2015 for longer version.)
- Research Summary
Selection and Market Reallocation: Productivity Gains from Multinational Production
By: Laura Alfaro
Assessing the productivity gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research and policy debate. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized... View Details
- March 1998 (Revised June 1999)
- Teaching Note
Linking Strategy and Innovation TN
By: Clayton M. Christensen
An overview note to guide instructors in teaching the third module of the Managing Innovation course. Describes how managers can use aggregate project planning to manage the resource allocation process in new product development. View Details
- 28 Feb 2021
- Working Paper Summaries
Measuring Employment Impact: Applications and Cases
Keywords: by Katie Panella and George Serafeim
- Research Summary
Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing and Liquidity (with Ronnie Sadka)
We document a close link between mispricing and liquidity by
investigating stocks with high analyst disagreement. Previous
research finds that these stocks tend to be overpriced, but prices
correct down as uncertainty about earnings is resolved. We
conjecture that one... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
E-commerce During COVID: Stylized Facts from 47 Economies
By: Joel Alcedo, Alberto Cavallo, Bricklin Dwyer, Prachi Mishra and Antonio Spilimbergo
We study e-commerce across 47 economies and 26 industries during the COVID-19 pandemic using aggregated and anonymized transaction-level data from Mastercard, scaled to represent total consumer spending. The share of online transactions in total consumption increased... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Health Pandemics; Spending; Internet and the Web; Global Range; Analysis; E-commerce
Alcedo, Joel, Alberto Cavallo, Bricklin Dwyer, Prachi Mishra, and Antonio Spilimbergo. "E-commerce During COVID: Stylized Facts from 47 Economies." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29729, February 2022.
- April 1995 (Revised March 1996)
- Background Note
Framing and Negotiation
How can framing--alternative description of an object, event, or situation--can be used effectively in negotiation? A real estate dialog is used to illustrate three common varieties of framing: losses versus gains; short and long horizons; and aggregation and... View Details
Keywords: Negotiation Tactics
Wu, George. "Framing and Negotiation." Harvard Business School Background Note 895-023, April 1995. (Revised March 1996.)