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- Faculty Publications (102)
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- All HBS Web (223)
- Faculty Publications (102)
- December 2021
- Article
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Experience; Interdependency; Strategic Foresight; Crowdfunding; Timeline; Delay; Forecasting; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Planning
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-123, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
- July 9, 2019
- Article
Setting Better Sales Goals with Analytics
By: Doug J. Chung, Isabel Huber, Vinay Murthy, Varun Sunku and Marije Weber
Sales compensation is a critical lever in motivating a salesforce and driving growth in the business-to-business sector: Studies show that revising compensation in line with market trends can have a 50% greater impact on sales than advertisements have, for instance. A... View Details
Keywords: Analytics; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits; Motivation and Incentives; Goals and Objectives
Chung, Doug J., Isabel Huber, Vinay Murthy, Varun Sunku, and Marije Weber. "Setting Better Sales Goals with Analytics." Harvard Business Review (website) (July 9, 2019).
- February 2021
- Article
Topic Classification of Electric Vehicle Consumer Experiences with Transformer-Based Deep Learning
By: Sooji Ha, Daniel J Marchetto, Sameer Dharur and Omar Isaac Asensio
The transportation sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is a driver of adverse health effects globally. Increasingly, government policies have promoted the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) as a solution to mitigate GHG emissions.... View Details
Keywords: Natural Language Processing; Analytics and Data Science; Environmental Sustainability; Infrastructure; Transportation; Policy
Ha, Sooji, Daniel J Marchetto, Sameer Dharur, and Omar Isaac Asensio. "Topic Classification of Electric Vehicle Consumer Experiences with Transformer-Based Deep Learning." Art. 100195. Patterns 2, no. 2 (February 2021).
- Article
Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates
By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).
- September 2014
- Article
Advancing Consumer Neuroscience
By: Ale Smidts, Ming Hsu, Alan G. Sanfey, Maarten A. S. Boksem, Richard B. Ebstein, Scott A. Huettel, Joe W. Kable, Uma R. Karmarkar, Shinobu Kitayama, Brian Knutson, Israel Liberzon, Terry Lohrenz, Mirre Stallen and Carolyn Yoon
In the first decade of consumer neuroscience, strong progress has been made in understanding how neuroscience can inform consumer decision making. Here, we sketch the development of this discipline and compare it to that of the adjacent field of neuroeconomics. We... View Details
Keywords: Consumer Neuroscience; Neuroeconomics; Social Neuroscience; Genes; Machine Learning; Meta-analysis; Consumer Behavior; Decision Making; Science
Smidts, Ale, Ming Hsu, Alan G. Sanfey, Maarten A. S. Boksem, Richard B. Ebstein, Scott A. Huettel, Joe W. Kable, Uma R. Karmarkar, Shinobu Kitayama, Brian Knutson, Israel Liberzon, Terry Lohrenz, Mirre Stallen, and Carolyn Yoon. "Advancing Consumer Neuroscience." Marketing Letters 25, no. 3 (September 2014): 257–267.
- June 2009 (Revised April 2019)
- Case
Crosley
By: Tom Nicholas and David Chen
In October 1941, a top secret envoy from the U.S. military was sent to Crosley Corporation in Cincinnati, Ohio to request their assistance to construct a weapon that would drastically strengthen the defenses of U.S. troops: the proximity fuze. Such a fuze would allow... View Details
Keywords: Information Technology; History; Production; National Security; Organizational Structure; Corporate Strategy; Research and Development; Product Development; Business and Government Relations; Creativity; Innovation and Invention; Ohio
Nicholas, Tom, and David Chen. "Crosley." Harvard Business School Case 809-160, June 2009. (Revised April 2019.)
- December 2022
- Article
'Just Letting You Know…': Underestimating Others' Desire for Constructive Feedback
By: Nicole Abi-Esber, Jennifer E. Abel, Juliana Schroeder and Francesca Gino
People often avoid giving feedback to others even when it would help fix a problem immediately. Indeed, in a pilot field study (N=155), only 2.6% of individuals provided feedback to survey administrators that the administrators had food or marker on their faces.... View Details
Keywords: Feedback; Helping; Prosocial Behavior; Misprediction; Relationships; Interpersonal Communication; Perspective
Abi-Esber, Nicole, Jennifer E. Abel, Juliana Schroeder, and Francesca Gino. "'Just Letting You Know…': Underestimating Others' Desire for Constructive Feedback." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 123, no. 6 (December 2022): 1362–1385.
- Research Summary
Markets, Information, and Efficiency
Professor Meulbroeks market efficiency research focuses on the closely related questions of whether markets properly reflect information that affects a firm's value, and in turn how stock prices influence managerial behavior. In this area, she studies why some firms... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Time Dependence and Preference: Implications for Compensation Structure and Shift Scheduling
By: Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim and Byoung G. Park
This study jointly examines agents’ time dependence—period effects within instantaneous utility—and time preference—behavior on discounting future utility. The study considers the start- and end-of-period effects for time dependence and exponential and hyperbolic... View Details
Keywords: Time Preferences; Present Bias; Hyperbolic Discounting; Compensation; Dynamic Structural Models; Identification; Time Management; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Performance; Compensation and Benefits
Chung, Doug J., Byungyeon Kim, and Byoung G. Park. "Time Dependence and Preference: Implications for Compensation Structure and Shift Scheduling." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-121, April 2021.
- 2010
- Working Paper
When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs
By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga
We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Subsidiaries; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Initial Public Offering; Price; Reports; Research
Feldman, Emilie Rose, Stuart Gilson, and Belen Villalonga. "When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-102, May 2010.
- November 2021
- Article
The Comprehensive Effects of Sales Force Management: A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Selection, Compensation, and Training
By: Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim and Byoung G. Park
This study provides a comprehensive model of an agent’s behavior in response to multiple sales management instruments, including compensation, recruiting/termination, and training. The model on agents’ behavior takes into account many of the key elements that... View Details
Keywords: Salesforce Management; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Compensation and Benefits; Resignation and Termination; Training; Behavior; Analysis
Chung, Doug J., Byungyeon Kim, and Byoung G. Park. "The Comprehensive Effects of Sales Force Management: A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Selection, Compensation, and Training." Management Science 67, no. 11 (November 2021): 7046–7074.
- September–October 2023
- Article
Interpretable Matrix Completion: A Discrete Optimization Approach
By: Dimitris Bertsimas and Michael Lingzhi Li
We consider the problem of matrix completion on an n × m matrix. We introduce the problem of interpretable matrix completion that aims to provide meaningful insights for the low-rank matrix using side information. We show that the problem can be... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods
Bertsimas, Dimitris, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Interpretable Matrix Completion: A Discrete Optimization Approach." INFORMS Journal on Computing 35, no. 5 (September–October 2023): 952–965.
- Research Summary
Overview
Dr. Logg studies how people can improve the accuracy of their judgments and decisions. Her main program of work examines when people are most likely to leverage the power of algorithms to improve their accuracy. Research on what she calls “theory of machine” is... View Details
- September 2019
- Article
The Interpersonal Costs of Dishonesty: How Dishonest Behavior Reduces Individuals' Ability to Read Others' Emotions
By: J.J. Lee, H. Hardin, B. Parmar and F. Gino
In this research, we examine the unintended consequences of dishonest behavior for one’s interpersonal abilities and subsequent ethical behavior. Specifically, we unpack how dishonest conduct can reduce one’s generalized empathic accuracy—the ability to accurately read... View Details
Lee, J.J., H. Hardin, B. Parmar, and F. Gino. "The Interpersonal Costs of Dishonesty: How Dishonest Behavior Reduces Individuals' Ability to Read Others' Emotions." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 148, no. 9 (September 2019): 1557–1574.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Remote Work across Jobs, Companies, and Space
By: Stephen Hansen, Peter John Lambert, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Raffaella Sadun and Bledi Taska
The pandemic catalyzed an enduring shift to remote work. To measure and characterize
this shift, we examine more than 250 million job vacancy postings across five
English-speaking countries. Our measurements rely on a state-of-the-art language-processing
framework... View Details
Keywords: Remote Work; Hybrid Work; Work From Home (WFH); Pandemic; Labor Market; Job Search; Job Design and Levels; Trends
Hansen, Stephen, Peter John Lambert, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Raffaella Sadun, and Bledi Taska. "Remote Work across Jobs, Companies, and Space." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31007, March 2023. (Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-059, March 2023.)
- 2021
- Conference Presentation
An Algorithmic Framework for Fairness Elicitation
By: Christopher Jung, Michael J. Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth, Logan Stapleton and Zhiwei Steven Wu
We consider settings in which the right notion of fairness is not captured by simple mathematical definitions (such as equality of error rates across groups), but might be more complex and nuanced and thus require elicitation from individual or collective stakeholders.... View Details
Jung, Christopher, Michael J. Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth, Logan Stapleton, and Zhiwei Steven Wu. "An Algorithmic Framework for Fairness Elicitation." Paper presented at the 2nd Symposium on Foundations of Responsible Computing (FORC), 2021.
- May 2022
- Supplement
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)
By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu
Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. In 2021, it had been three years since Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) and Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) started working on Muneccim, the company’s predictive AI tool.... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Commercialization; Technology Adoption; Industrial Products Industry; Turkey; Middle East
Mojir, Navid, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 522-045, May 2022.
- Article
Human Capital and the Future of Work: Implications for Investors and ESG Integration
By: Sakis Kotsantonis and George Serafeim
Human capital development (HCD) is a key consideration for most companies, but only recently have investors focused on understanding the risks and opportunities related to human capital with the emergence of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment... View Details
Keywords: Future Of Work; ESG; Employee Engagement; Employee Compensation; Human Capital; Human Resources; Employees; Compensation and Benefits; Wages
Kotsantonis, Sakis, and George Serafeim. "Human Capital and the Future of Work: Implications for Investors and ESG Integration." Journal of Financial Transformation 51 (April 2020): 115–130.
- September 2018
- Article
Do Experts or Crowd-Based Models Produce More Bias? Evidence from Encyclopædia Britannica and Wikipedia
By: Shane Greenstein and Feng Zhu
Organizations today can use both crowds and experts to produce knowledge. While prior work compares the accuracy of crowd-produced and expert-produced knowledge, we compare bias in these two models in the context of contested knowledge, which involves subjective,... View Details
Keywords: Online Community; Collective Intelligence; Wisdom Of Crowds; Bias; Wikipedia; Britannica; Knowledge Production; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Dissemination; Prejudice and Bias
Greenstein, Shane, and Feng Zhu. "Do Experts or Crowd-Based Models Produce More Bias? Evidence from Encyclopædia Britannica and Wikipedia." MIS Quarterly 42, no. 3 (September 2018): 945–959.