Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,962)
- Faculty Publications (967)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
- November 2004
- Article
Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be... View Details
- fall 2004
- Article
Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)
By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
- September 2004 (Revised February 2007)
- Case
Hedging Currency Risks at AIFS
By: Mihir A. Desai, Vincent Dessain and Anders Sjoman
The American Institute for Foreign Studies (AIFS) organizes study abroad programs and cultural exchanges for American students. The firm's revenues are mainly in U.S. dollars, but most of its costs are in eurodollars and British pounds. The company's controllers review... View Details
- September 2004
- Article
Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details
- September 2004
- Article
Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows
By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue
- September 2004
- Article
Trust in Agency
Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
- June 2004
- Article
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
- February 2004
- Case
Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC
By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur
An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details
- February 2004 (Revised March 2004)
- Case
Cartwright Lumber Company
By: Thomas R. Piper
The Cartwright Lumber Co. faces a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details
- February 2004
- Article
Leader Behaviors and the Work Environment for Creativity: Perceived Leader Support
By: Teresa M. Amabile, Elizabeth A. Schatzel, Giovanni B. Moneta and Steven J. Kramer
This exploratory study investigated leader behaviors related to perceived leader support, encompassing both instrumental and socioemotional support. The study first established that leader support, proposed to be a key feature of the work environment for creativity,... View Details
- November 2003 (Revised March 2004)
- Case
Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom
By: Mihir A. Desai and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho
The Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, is evaluating the acquisition of an Argentine oil company, the Perez Companc Group (Pecom). The acquisition would increase Petrobras' oil reserves and expand its interests outside Brazil, a significant step for the largest company... View Details
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Non-Renewable Energy; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Corporate Governance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; State Ownership; Performance Evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Energy Industry; Argentina; Brazil
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
- October 2003 (Revised January 2004)
- Case
Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The
By: Ray A. Goldberg and Kevin M. Allison
Three farmers from three different countries are looking at the global soybean system and how to position themselves in the future. View Details
- August 2003 (Revised May 2005)
- Teaching Note
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (TN)
Teaching Note for (5-502-045). View Details
- August 2003
- Article
When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms
By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
- June 2003
- Case
Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads
By: Rajiv Lal, Nitin Nohria and Leslie Freeman
Three managing directors at Peabody Simpson had just returned from a firm-wide recruiting event at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the... View Details
- May 2003
- Case
Liz Claiborne, Inc.
By: Rajiv Lal, Walter J. Salmon and Edie Prescott
Discusses the business portfolio emphasis of a large multibrand manufacturer and the future of department stores as well as how relationships between manufacturers and key customers can be improved. View Details
- March 2003
- Article
Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming
By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman