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      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • December 2008
      • Article

      Style Investing and Institutional Investors

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and Melvyn Teo
      This paper explores institutional investors' trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and Melvyn Teo. "Style Investing and Institutional Investors." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, no. 4 (December 2008): 883–906. (Revised from: Equity Style Returns and Institutional Investor Flows, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 04-048, June 2004.)
      • November 2008
      • Journal Article

      Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui
      Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Yang Gui. "Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations." Journal of Financial Transformation 24 (November 2008): 123–130.
      • September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
      • Case

      Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents

      By: Elie Ofek
      Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Ofek, Elie. "Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents." Harvard Business School Case 509-028, September 2008. (Revised June 2011.)
      • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
      • Exercise

      Exercise on Estimation

      By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
      This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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      Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts

      By: Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal and Suraj Srinivasan
      We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismissal for both CEOs and CFOs during the period 1993-2004. These results... View Details
      Keywords: Earnings Management; Governing and Advisory Boards; Compensation and Benefits; Managerial Roles; Personal Development and Career
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      Mergenthaler, Rick, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan. "CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-014, August 2008. (Revised June 2009.)
      • August 2008
      • Article

      Economic Links and Predictable Returns

      By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
      This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation​.)
      • July – August 2008
      • Article

      Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
      We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
      Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
      • July–August 2008
      • Article

      Interview with a Quality Leader: Regina E. Herzlinger on Consumer-Driven Healthcare

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger
      Regina E. Herzlinger is the Nancy R. McPherson Professor of Business Administration Chair at the Harvard Business School, Cambridge, MA. She received her bachelor's degree from MIT and her doctorate from the Harvard Business School The first woman to be tenured and... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer-driven Health Care; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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      "Interview with a Quality Leader: Regina E. Herzlinger on Consumer-Driven Healthcare." Journal for Healthcare Quality 30, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 17–19.
      • April 2008
      • Case

      Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

      By: John T. Gourville
      An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
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      Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
      • 2008
      • Mimeo

      Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?

      By: Joseph Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong and Jeremy C. Stein
      This paper explores the question of whether hedge funds engage in frontrunning strategies that exploit the predictable trades of others. One potential opportunity for front-running arises when distressed mutual funds—those suffering large outflows of assets under... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Profit; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Opportunities; Asset Management; Sales
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      Chen, Joseph, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong, and Jeremy C. Stein. "Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?" 2008. Mimeo.
      • 2008
      • Book

      Predictable Surprises

      By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins
      Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior
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      Bazerman, Max, and Michael D. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Paperback ed. Harvard Business School Press, 2008.
      • March 2008
      • Case

      Cambrian House

      By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee
      Cambrian House builds internet-based products and services by relying entirely on its user community for all aspects of its innovation and new product development process. Users suggest ideas for new products and services and also participate in a monthly voting... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Voting; Technological Innovation; Knowledge Management; Marketing Strategy; Open Source Distribution; Product Development; Strategic Planning; Business and Community Relations; Internet
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      Coles, Peter A., Karim R. Lakhani, and Andrew P. McAfee. "Cambrian House." Harvard Business School Case 608-016, March 2008.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Exploring the Duality between Product and Organizational Architectures: A Test of the Mirroring Hypothesis

      By: Alan D. MacCormack, John Rusnak and Carliss Y. Baldwin
      A variety of academic studies argue that a relationship exists between the structure of an organization and the design of the products that this organization produces. Specifically, products tend to "mirror" the architectures of the organizations in which they are... View Details
      Keywords: Open Source Distribution; Product Design; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Performance Effectiveness; Information Technology Industry
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      MacCormack, Alan D., John Rusnak, and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "Exploring the Duality between Product and Organizational Architectures: A Test of the Mirroring Hypothesis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-039, March 2008. (Revised October 2008, January 2011.)
      • March 2008 (Revised August 2008)
      • Supplement

      Medtronic Vision 2010 (CW)

      By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Zeitler
      Keywords: Business Plan; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Opportunities; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Applegate, Lynda M., and James Zeitler. "Medtronic Vision 2010 (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 808-703, March 2008. (Revised August 2008.)
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis

      By: P. Tufano, Nick Maynard and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve
      This paper reports on a small-scale survey of the potential American demand for prize-linked savings accounts, an account that awards prizes as part of the saving product's return. In October 2006, Centra Credit Union launched a prize-linked savings pilot. As part of... View Details
      Keywords: Saving; Income; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Banks and Banking; Clarksville
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      Tufano, P., Nick Maynard, and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve. "Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-061, February 2008.
      • January 2008
      • Background Note

      Equity Options

      By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
      The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value
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      Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Equity Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-118, January 2008.
      • January 2008
      • Background Note

      Index Options

      By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
      The goal of this simulation is to understand the patterns in index option prices that are not predicted by the Black-Scholes model. In particular, the simulation focuses on two properties of options prices. First, at-the-money implied volatilities from index options... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Stock Options; Investment; Price; Profit; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods
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      Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Index Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-119, January 2008.
      • January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
      • Case

      Forecasting the Great Depression

      By: Walter A. Friedman
      What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
      Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
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      Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Catering through Nominal Share Prices

      By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices.  The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation
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      Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering through Nominal Share Prices." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w13762, January 2008. (First Draft in 2007.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Component Modularity on Design Evolution: Evidence from the Software Industry

      By: Alan MacCormack, John Rusnak and Carliss Y. Baldwin

      Much academic work asserts a relationship between the design of a complex system and the manner in which this system evolves over time. In particular, designs which are modular in nature are argued to be more "evolvable," in that these designs facilitate making... View Details

      Keywords: Product Design; Adaptation; Software; Information Technology Industry
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      MacCormack, Alan, John Rusnak, and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "The Impact of Component Modularity on Design Evolution: Evidence from the Software Industry." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-038, December 2007.
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