Publications

Article

Big Names or Big Ideas: Do Peer-Review Panels Select the Best Science Proposals?

By: Danielle Li and Leila Agha

This paper examines the success of peer-review panels in predicting the future quality of proposed research. We construct new data to track publication, citation, and patenting outcomes associated with more than 130,000 research project (R01) grants funded by the U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Patents; Research; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Business and Government Relations; United States

September 2011
Article

How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?

The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and S&P, leading to longstanding legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

2008
Mimeo

Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?

By: Joseph Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong and Jeremy C. Stein

This paper explores the question of whether hedge funds engage in frontrunning strategies that exploit the predictable trades of others. One potential opportunity for front-running arises when distressed mutual funds—those suffering large outflows of assets under... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Profit; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Opportunities; Asset Management; Sales

SSRN

October 2010
Article

Preferring Balanced vs. Advantageous Peace Agreements: A Study of Israeli Attitudes Towards a Two-State Solution

By: Deepak Malhotra and Jeremy Ginges

The paper extends research on fixed-pie perceptions by suggesting that disputants may prefer proposals that are perceived to be equally attractive to both parties (i.e., balanced) rather than one-sided, because balanced agreements are seen as more likely to be... View Details

Keywords: Fixed Pie; Balance; Peace; Negotiation; Agreements and Arrangements; Conflict and Resolution; Government and Politics; Balance and Stability; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Israel; Palestinian state

2010
Working Paper

Decoding Inside Information

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski

Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Market Transactions

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Article

State Activism and the Hidden Incentives Behind Bank Acquisitions

By: Christopher Marquis, Doug Guthrie and Juan Almandoz

A number of studies have shown that, as a result of the ambiguity of U.S. legal mandates, organizations have considerable latitude in how they comply with regulations. In this paper, we address how the different agendas of the federal and state governments increase... View Details

Keywords: Organizations; Opportunities; Government Legislation; Acquisition; Forecasting and Prediction; Banks and Banking; Motivation and Incentives; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Management Practices and Processes; Research; United States

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February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
Supplement

Multifactor Models (CW)

By: Malcolm P. Baker

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation

08 Sep 2015
First Look

September 8, 2015

demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk—a forecast of limited future funding—by modifying their focus to finance... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

07 Oct 2013
Research & Ideas

The Case for Combating Climate Change with Nuclear Power and Fracking

Robert Hargraves, an energy policy instructor at Dartmouth College, which forecasts a hypothetical but startling scenario for the world's electricity consumption. [Click the image to see the slide.]"Even if we were capable of cutting US... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Energy; Utilities

2011
Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth

Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness

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July 2002
Case

Introducing ... The XFL!

By: Susan M. Fournier, Stephen A. Greyser and Seth Schulman

When the XFL professional football league debuted on February 3, 2001, it generated a Nielsen rating of 10.1, higher than any nationally televised program in a Saturday evening time slot. The next week, ratings plummeted, and by week nine the XFL game earned the title... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Product Development; Culture; Commercialization

June 2001 (Revised July 2001)
Case

Amazon.com in the Year 2000

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Jeremy Cott

An analyst's critique of Amazon's prospectus from the perspective of its bond holders. View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Accounting Audits; Financial Reporting; Governing and Advisory Boards; Internet and the Web; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

December 1998
Background Note

Cash Management Practices in Small Companies

By: H. Kent Bowen, Andrew R. Jassy, Laurence E. Katz, Kevin E. Kelly and Baltej Kochar

Most small business managers claim that cash management is their leading concern. Often walking a tightrope between growth and illiquidity, small business managers face different cash management challenges than their counterparts in larger companies. Compared to larger... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Working Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Design; Cash; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Business Strategy