Publications

October 1993 (Revised February 1995)
Case

Dendrite International

By: Frank V. Cespedes and Marie Bell

Dendrite International is a $23 million (1992 revenues) supplier of sales automation software to pharmaceuticals companies in Europe, Japan, and the United States. The firm's strategy has depended on being a full-service supplier to multinational firms. Impending... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Audits; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Sales; Competitive Advantage; Information Technology Industry; Japan; Europe; United States

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model

February 2004
Case

Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC

By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur

An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers; Distribution Channels; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

January 2010
Journal Article

A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere

Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition

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06 Sep 2022
Research & Ideas

Curbing an Unlikely Culprit of Rising Drug Prices: Pharmaceutical Donations

Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to constrain price growth of existing drugs, cap seniors’ out-of-pocket drug spending, and eventually enable drug price negotiations, Dafny says. While “it's a little too soon to forecast the impact of... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand; Insurance; Health; Pharmaceutical

19 Feb 2007
Research & Ideas

Inexperienced Investors and Market Bubbles

managers over-invested in technology stocks. Why are the less-experienced managers drawn to technology? A: Our hypothesis is that younger managers, and inexperienced investors more generally, are more likely to extrapolate past price movements when forming their View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services

July 2014
Article

Accounting for Crises

By: Venky Nagar and Gwen Yu

We provide among the first empirical evidence consistent with recent macro global-game crisis models, which show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g., Angeletos and Werning, 2006; Morris and Shin, 2002, 2003). In these models,... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Mathematical Methods; Game Theory; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting; Financial Crisis

SSRN

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17 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 17

impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare post-choice satisfaction from choices made by mind wandering to reason based choices and randomly assigned outcomes. Participants chose a poster by mind wandering or deliberating-or were randomly assigned a... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

07 Sep 2011
First Look

First Look: Sept. 7

pronounced for firms with ex ante lower-quality information environments: firms with lower analyst following, lower market capitalization, higher analyst forecast errors, or higher analyst forecast... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

April 21, 2023
Article

When Scenario Planning Fails

By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen

How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can... View Details

Keywords: Planning; Crisis Management; Organizational Structure; Forecasting and Prediction; System Shocks; Organizational Change and Adaptation

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February 2001
Case

ALWAYSi

By: Paul A. Gompers and Sergio Rattner

Anthony Soohoo, COO at ALWAYSi, an independent film distributor, is preparing projections for the company. Soohoo must decide which revenue streams the company should pursue. The firm is faced with a variety of attractive opportunities. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Business Strategy; Revenue; Film Entertainment; Strategic Planning; Business Startups; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

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April 1993 (Revised June 1994)
Supplement

MathSoft, Inc. (B)

By: V. Kasturi Rangan

Describes the president's decision regarding MathSoft's marketing channels and communications methods, and the company's sales results during the next five quarters. The (A) case market response model is also updated. View Details

Keywords: Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Curriculum and Courses; Learning; Knowledge Sharing; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing Channels; Education Industry

19 Jun 2007
First Look

First Look: June 19, 2007

demand which underpin the link between the three characteristics of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

09 Sep 2008
First Look

First Look: September 9, 2008

contribute to understanding the contingent effects of policy on organizations and the rise of large corporations in the twentieth century. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/09-025.pdf Over-reaction to Demand Changes Due to Subjective and Quantitative... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

24 Jan 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research: January 24, 2017

earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Mar 2013
First Look

First Look: March 5

issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs faced... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

May 1986 (Revised February 1991)
Case

Wilson Lumber Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The Wilson Lumber Co. is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed, and assess the attractiveness of the... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Sales; Financial Strategy

June 2012 (Revised March 2014)
Case

Best Buy in Crisis

By: John R. Wells and Galen Danskin

In June 2012, Best Buy was in crisis. In 1996, Best Buy overtook Circuit City as the world's leader in consumer electronics retailing; however, 18 years later, Best Buy now found this position threatened. With $51 billion in revenues, it was still the biggest CE... View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Competitive Strategy; Ethics; Management Teams; Consumer Products Industry; Electronics Industry; Retail Industry