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  • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
  • Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 1989
  • Book

Future Competition in Telecommunications

By: Stephen P. Bradley and Jerry A. Hausman
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Competition; Telecommunications Industry
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  • 01 Dec 1999
  • News

New Releases

can respond appropriately to demand, lean inventories, and the rapid replenishment of stock. "The old way was to gear planning and production decisions to forecasts and guesses made months in advance of a selling season," write Hammond... View Details
  • Web

Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections

the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to successfully manage risk in... View Details
  • 07 May 2019
  • News

How Sonja Hoel Perkins Saved John McAfee from an Especially Bad Deal

Its forecasted revenue growth rate is more than 90 percent, and its pre-tax margins run between 80 and 90 percent of sales. The problem is that John is seriously considering selling McAfee to Symantec.” That didn’t happen, according to... View Details
  • 01 Sep 2010
  • News

Faculty Books

offerings, and fatter profit margins. Featuring case studies from around the world, this book shows how to mine sales data to identify “home-run” products, reinvent forecasting and pricing strategies, and extract maximum value from... View Details
Keywords: Retail Trade; Water Transportation; Transportation
  • August 2016
  • Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details
Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 27 Mar 2018
  • First Look

First Look at New Research, March 27, 2018

sell-side analysts employed at state-owned brokerages issued relatively optimistic earnings forecasts and stock recommendations during these periods. This relative optimism is particularly pronounced in earnings View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 27 May 2014
  • First Look

First Look: May 27

forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly significant predictive pooled regression slope for future quarterly returns of 0.86, whereas the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
  • Supplement

LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details
Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
  • Supplement

LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Decision Trees; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 2008
  • Book

Predictable Surprises

By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins
Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior
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  • 25 Feb 2015
  • Lessons from the Classroom

Scholars and Students Unpack the Digital Business Revolution

hedge fund, an Amazon employee focused on retail data, and a forecaster at General Electric," says HBS David Sarnoff Professor of Business Administration Marco Iansiti, who serves as faculty chair of the initiative and head of the... View Details
Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Education; Technology
  • 11 Jan 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 11

Publication:Journal of Finance (forthcoming) Abstract We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry.... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Supply Chain Analytics - Course Catalog

managing product availability, especially in a context of rapid product proliferation, short product life cycles, and global networks of suppliers and customers. Hence, topics not examined in RC TOM such as inventory management, distribution economics, and demand View Details
  • 01 Mar 2012
  • News

Social Investing Pioneers

rising to a maximum of 13.3 percent, but only if the reoffending rate is reduced by at least 7.5 percent. Even at the highest rate, the government is forecast to pay out only about a third of its cost savings. Fifteen months into the... View Details
Keywords: Roger Thompson; Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles; Finance; Social Assistance; Health, Social Assistance
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias
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  • July 2005 (Revised June 2006)
  • Case

Ryanair Holdings plc

Examines the valuation of an Irish airline that reported its first decline in net income in 2004 and saw a 30% stock price drop on the news. Ryanair is a low-cost, low-fare airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, operating over 200 routes in 20 countries. The company... View Details
Keywords: Strategy; International Accounting; Analysis; Valuation; Air Transportation; Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Air Transportation Industry; Dublin
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  • 23 Oct 2019
  • News

Exploring Big Issues at the Intersection of Business and Society

Professor Joseph Fuller looked beyond dystopian forecasts to explore how ever-evolving technology has the potential to improve the quality of work lives, the earnings of most workers, and company productivity. Viewpoints exposed students... View Details
Keywords: Educational Innovation
  • 28 May 2019
  • News

Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble

hosted an HBS Club of New York panel discussion on cryptocurrencies earlier this year, and she’s here to help us forecast the future of digital dough. “People who got burned when the price of bitcoin crashed are now starting to do more... View Details
Keywords: Dan Morrell