Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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December 2014
Article

When to Sell Your Idea: Theory and Evidence from the Movie Industry

By: Hong Luo

I study a model of investment and sale of ideas and test its empirical implications using a novel data set from the market for original movie ideas. Consistent with the theoretical results, I find that buyers are reluctant to meet unproven sellers for early-stage... View Details

Keywords: Market For Ideas; Information Asymmetry; Expropriation Risk; Intermediary; Intellectual Property Protection; Strategy; Intellectual Property; Film Entertainment; Sales; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

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January 2, 2008
Editorial

A Better Way to Pay CEOs: Smarter Incentives Could Reduce the Risks They Pursue

Keywords: Compensation and Benefits; Management; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty

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2015
Article

A Machine Learning Framework to Identify Students at Risk of Adverse Academic Outcomes

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Everaldo Aguiar, Carl Shan, David Miller, Nasir Bhanpuri, Rayid Ghani and Kecia Addison

2019
Other Unpublished Work

Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico

By: Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart and Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Keywords: Financial Risk; Finance; Economics; Mexico; Latin America

June 2008 (Revised May 2017)
Case

Cook Composites and Polymers Co.

By: Deishin Lee, Michael W. Toffel and Rachel Gordon

This case describes how a company improves resource efficiency and process quality in its manufacturing process by developing a waste by-product into a new product. The case describes how CCP cleans production equipment between batches using styrene, which becomes a... View Details

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Product Development; Business Processes; Performance Efficiency; Natural Environment; Wastes and Waste Processing; Pollutants; Environmental Sustainability; Chemical Industry; Manufacturing Industry

2013
Working Paper

Internet Appendix for "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds"

By: Adi Sunderam, Luis M. Viceira and John Y. Campbell

March 2025
Article

Novice Risk Work: How Juniors Coaching Seniors on Emerging Technologies Such as Generative AI Can Lead to Learning Failures

By: Katherine C. Kellogg, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Steven Randazzo, Ethan Mollick, Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon and Karim R. Lakhani

The literature on communities of practice demonstrates that a proven way for senior professionals to upskill themselves in the use of new technologies that undermine existing expertise is to learn from junior professionals. It notes that juniors may be better able... View Details

Keywords: Rank and Position; Competency and Skills; Technology Adoption; Experience and Expertise; AI and Machine Learning

2009
Working Paper

An Ounce of Prevention: The Power of Public Risk Management in Stabilizing the Financial System

By: David A. Moss

The magnitude of the current financial crisis reflects the failure of an economic and regulatory philosophy that had proved increasingly influential in policy circles over the past three decades.

This paper suggests (1) that contrary to the prevailing wisdom,... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk Management; Business and Government Relations; Balance and Stability

December 2002
Article

Something Old, Something New: A Longitudinal Study of Search Behavior and New Product Introduction

By: Riitta Katila and Gautam Ahuja

We examine how firms search, or solve problems, to create new products. According to organizational learning research, firms position themselves in a unidimensional search space that spans a spectrum from local to distant search. Our findings in the global robotics... View Details

Keywords: Problem Solving; New Products; Organizational Learning; Uncertainty; Organizational Research; Knowledge Management; Robotics; Organizational Behavior; Organizational Effectiveness; Innovation Adoption; Strategy; Product Design; Business Processes; Product Development

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July 2025
Article

On the Economic Origins of Concerns Over Women’s Chastity

By: Anke Becker

This paper studies the origins and function of customs and norms that intend to keep women from being promiscuous. Using large-scale survey data from more than 100 countries, I test the anthropological theory that a particular form of preindustrial... View Details

Keywords: Infibulation; Female Sexuality; Paternity Uncertainty; Concern About Women's Chastity; Pastoralism; Economic Anthropology; History; Gender; Social Issues; Culture

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January 2014
Other Article

The Answer is 9,142: Understanding the Influence of Disruption Risk on Inventory Decision Making

By: Mark Cotteleer, Maria Ibanez and Geri Gibbons

The question was how many units of inventory a manager should order when faced with a possible disruption in supply. The correct answer is not guesswork, but based on 150 years of theory and practice. We examine individual choices made in this critical situation—and... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral; Behavioral Operations; Inventory; Bias; Operations Management; Operations

2021
Working Paper

rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice

By: Paul Ma, Jee-Eun Shin and Charles C.Y. Wang

We develop a measurement-error framework for assessing the quality of relative-performance metrics designed to filter out the systematic component of performance and analyze relative total shareholder return (rTSR)—the predominant metric market participants use to... View Details

Keywords: Relative TSR; Relative Performance Evaluation; Systematic Risk; Board Of Directors; Compensation Consultants; Style Effects; Executive Compensation; Performance Evaluation; Corporate Governance

June 2014 (Revised February 2017)
Teaching Note

Atlanta Schools: Measures to Improve Performance

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This is the teaching note for Atlanta Schools: Measures to Improve Performance (HBS No. 114-001) View Details

Keywords: Execution; Management Control Systems; Risk; Balancing Innovation And Control; Strategy; Risk Management; Education Industry

1997
Dissertation

Risk-based Multi-Objective Optimization for the Control of Mobile-source Air Pollution: A Framework Methodology for Analyzing Risk Transferral among Exposure, Emissions, and Economic Costs

By: Martha Heitzmann

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10 Sep 2020
Research & Ideas

The COVID Two-Step for Leaders: Protect and Pivot

the core, and pivot to new opportunities. We provide a top-level overview of major topics and ideas relevant to each concept. We hope you are interested in engaging in further research about any topics that... View Details

Keywords: by Boris Groysberg and Katherine Connolly Baden

June 2009 (Revised April 2017)
Teaching Note

Merck: Managing Vioxx (A)-(G)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

Teaching Note for [109080], [109081], [109082], [109083], [109084], [109085], and [109086]. View Details

Keywords: Management Control Systems; Strategy And Execution; Crisis Management; Risk; Core Values; Pharmaceutical Industry

28 Apr 2020
News

“I believe that climate change is potentially a catastrophic risk to our entire economy” Harvard Professor

October 2014
Supplement

Quiet Logistics (B)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This two-part case focuses on how to identify and manage strategic uncertainties in an innovative, entrepreneurial start-up company. In the (A) case, students learn about Quiet Logistics, an e-commerce fulfillment company working with high-end apparel retailers such as... View Details

March 2023 (Revised March 2023)
Case

Roche: Innovation and Access to Healthcare

By: George Serafeim, Susanna Gallani and Benjamin Maletta

In May 2022, Roche Group, one of the largest healthcare companies in the world, hosted its first investor event focused exclusively on its efforts to impact access to healthcare. While Roche had recently set an ambitious goal to double the number of patients that had... View Details

May 2024
Case

Shell's Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition

By: David Collis and Haisley Wert

In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details

Keywords: Portfolio Analysis; Climate; Oil; Oil And Gas; Oil Companies; Renewables; Petroleum; Investor Demand; Investors; Corporate Strategy; Resource Allocation; Climate Change; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Business and Shareholder Relations; Energy Industry; United Kingdom

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