Publications

July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction

May 2017
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product; Product Launch; Marketing

March 2013
Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention

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September 1998
Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth

Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy

April 2005
Case

Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron

Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States

06 May 2015
What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

individuals. All forecasting is a case in point. When the application becomes personal, it raises many questions that will have to be addressed. In this case, should we be careful what we wish for? What do you think? Original Article In... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

12 Jul 2010
Research & Ideas

Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide

Demand With total revenue likely to fluctuate much more than in the past, managers must be ready to take anticipatory action. Consequently, they should improve their ability to forecast aggregate demand. Supply chains during the last few... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Retail; Auto

11 Dec 2007
First Look

First Look: December 11, 2007

Working PapersThe Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

June 1998 (Revised June 1999)
Case

Dixon Corporation: The Collinsville Plant

By: W. Carl Kester

Dixon Corp.faces the task of valuing a plant and an associated project that it is considering buying. The revisions are designed to enable the application of adjusted present value technique for valuation. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Valuation; Projects; Forecasting and Prediction; Acquisition; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Technology Industry

October 2003 (Revised January 2004)
Case

Global Farmer and the Future of Soybean Production, The

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Kevin M. Allison

Three farmers from three different countries are looking at the global soybean system and how to position themselves in the future. View Details

Keywords: Animal-Based Agribusiness; Trade; Globalized Markets and Industries; Food; Strategic Planning; Forecasting and Prediction; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

Web

HBS - Financials | From the Chief Financial Officer

$224 FY 22 174 FY 21 81 FY 20 146 FY 19 222 Total revenues for fiscal 2023 increased 11 percent year over year to more than $1 billion. This growth exceeded our forecast by 2 percent, primarily driven by Executive Education, the endowment... View Details

Web

HBS - Financials | From the CFO

and building strategic partnerships that enhance the group's capabilities and broaden its reach. HBS Online revenue increased approximately 31 percent in fiscal 2021, significantly exceeding our forecast and generating an operating... View Details

10 May 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

Article

Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data

By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend

This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

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19 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

18 May 2010
First Look

First Look: May 18

forecast characteristic-related stock returns. For example, we show that large firms underperform following years when issuing firms are large relative to repurchasing firms. Our approach is useful for View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

07 Jul 2009
First Look

First Look: July 7

Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts (revised) Authors:Richard Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan Abstract We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

April 2023
Article

Performance on Patient Experience Measures of Former Chief Medical Residents as Physician Exemplars Chosen by the Profession

By: Lucy Chen and J. Michael McWilliams

OBJECTIVE To compare care for patients of primary care physicians (PCPs) who were former chiefs with care for patients of nonchief PCPs.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using 2010 to 2018 Medicare Fee-For-Service Consumer Assessment of Healthcare... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Competency and Skills; Surveys; Health Industry