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  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
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  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (802)
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  • Web

Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections

the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to successfully manage risk in... View Details
  • June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
  • Case

Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

By: Thomas R. Piper
Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details
Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting
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Piper, Thomas R. "Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 290-064, June 1990. (Revised January 1993.)
  • July 2019
  • Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis
When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details
Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction
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Gray, Kurt, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett, and Kevin Lewis. "'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity." American Psychologist 74, no. 5 (July 2019): 539–554.
  • May 2017
  • Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)

By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product; Product Launch; Marketing
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Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)." Harvard Business School Case 517-121, May 2017.
  • March 2013
  • Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R&D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention
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Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
  • September 1998
  • Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth
Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy
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Erev, Ido, and A. E. Roth. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria." American Economic Review 88, no. 4 (September 1998): 848–881.
  • April 2005
  • Case

Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron
Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details
Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States
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Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and David Kiron. "Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?" Harvard Business School Case 105-067, April 2005.
  • 01 Dec 2014
  • News

Making Big Data Fashionable

styles are resonating with consumers. By monitoring data such as social media chatter, shared images, and Google searches, Trendalytics can identify specific trends that a brand can then use to guide everything from the product mix to regional campaigns or to View Details
Keywords: Christine Lejeune; fashion; Market Research, Photo, Translation, Veterinary and Other Services; Professional Services
  • August 2015 (Revised January 2017)
  • Technical Note

From Correlation to Causation

By: Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani
To make sound business decisions, managers must be comfortable with the concepts of correlation and causation. This background note provides an overview of correlation and causation using examples and explains why the former does not imply the latter. It also describes... View Details
Keywords: Statistics; Regression; Data Analytics; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Judgments
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Zhu, Feng, and Karim R. Lakhani. "From Correlation to Causation." Harvard Business School Technical Note 616-009, August 2015. (Revised January 2017.)
  • January 2011
  • Article

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

By: Derek Koehler, Rebecca White and Leslie K. John
Self-predictions are highly sensitive to current intentions but often largely insensitive to factors influencing the readiness with which those intentions are translated into future behavior. When such factors are under a person's control, they could be used to... View Details
Keywords: Planning; Saving; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
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Koehler, Derek, Rebecca White, and Leslie K. John. "Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities." Social Psychological & Personality Science 2, no. 1 (January 2011): 90–96.
  • February 2004 (Revised April 2004)
  • Case

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The

By: David F. Hawkins and Jacob Cohen
Analysts believe bankruptcy is a distinct possibility for A&P in the future. The company believes otherwise. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
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Hawkins, David F., and Jacob Cohen. "Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The." Harvard Business School Case 104-070, February 2004. (Revised April 2004.)
  • 19 Oct 2010
  • First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 18 May 2010
  • First Look

First Look: May 18

forecast characteristic-related stock returns. For example, we show that large firms underperform following years when issuing firms are large relative to repurchasing firms. Our approach is useful for View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry
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Frankel, Alexander P., Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-074, May 2023. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31290, May 2023.)
  • October–December 2022
  • Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
  • April 2011
  • Teaching Note

Prediction Markets at Google (TN)

Teaching Note for 607088. View Details
Keywords: Interests; Forecasting and Prediction; Market Participation; Information Technology Industry
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Coles, Peter A. "Prediction Markets at Google (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 911-070, April 2011.
  • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
  • Exercise

Exercise on Estimation

By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
  • winter 1996
  • Article

The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback
Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
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Kaplan, S. N., and R. S. Ruback. "The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables." Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 8, no. 4 (winter 1996): 45–60.
  • 27 Mar 2018
  • First Look

First Look at New Research, March 27, 2018

sell-side analysts employed at state-owned brokerages issued relatively optimistic earnings forecasts and stock recommendations during these periods. This relative optimism is particularly pronounced in earnings View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 27 May 2014
  • First Look

First Look: May 27

forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly significant predictive pooled regression slope for future quarterly returns of 0.86, whereas the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
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