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      • Faculty Publications  (1,057)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • October 2009
      • Article

      Making Time Off Predictable—and Required

      By: Leslie Perlow and Jessica L. Porter
      People in professional services believe a 24/7 work ethic is essential for getting ahead—and so they work 60-plus hours a week and stay tethered to their BlackBerrys. This perpetuates a vicious cycle: Responsiveness breeds the need for more responsiveness. When people... View Details
      Keywords: Management Practices and Processes; Performance Expectations; Performance Productivity; Work-Life Balance; Service Industry
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      Perlow, Leslie, and Jessica L. Porter. "Making Time Off Predictable—and Required." Harvard Business Review 87, no. 10 (October 2009).
      • October 2009
      • Article

      Managing Risk in the New World

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Anette Mikes, Robert Simons, Peter Tufano and Michael Hofmann Jr.
      Five experts gathered recently to discuss the future of enterprise risk management: Kaplan, the Baker Foundation Professor at Harvard Business School, who with his colleague David Norton developed the balanced scorecard; Mikes, an assistant professor at HBS who studies... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Capital Structure; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Risk Management
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Anette Mikes, Robert Simons, Peter Tufano, and Michael Hofmann Jr. "Managing Risk in the New World." Harvard Business Review 87, no. 10 (October 2009): 68–75.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Clusters of Entrepreneurship

      By: Edward L. Glaeser, William R. Kerr and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto
      Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Cost; Employment; Market Entry and Exit
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      Glaeser, Edward L., William R. Kerr, and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto. "Clusters of Entrepreneurship." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-019, September 2009.
      • Article

      Local Industrial Conditions and Entrepreneurship: How Much of the Spatial Distribution Can We Explain?

      By: Edward L. Glaeser and William R. Kerr
      Why are some places more entrepreneurial than others? We use Census Bureau data to study local determinants of manufacturing startups across cities and industries. Demographics have limited explanatory power. Overall levels of local customers and suppliers are only... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Geographic Location; Employment; Market Entry and Exit; Supply Chain; Manufacturing Industry
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      Glaeser, Edward L., and William R. Kerr. "Local Industrial Conditions and Entrepreneurship: How Much of the Spatial Distribution Can We Explain?" Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 18, no. 3 (Fall 2009): 623–663.
      • September 2009 (Revised November 2010)
      • Case

      Marquee: The Business of Nightlife

      By: Anita Elberse, Ryan Barlow and Sheldon Wong
      In December 2008, nightlife impresario Noah Tepperberg celebrated the fifth anniversary of his New York City nightclub Marquee. While most clubs are over within their first one-and-a-half years, Tepperberg has succeeded in keeping Marquee one of NYC's hottest clubs for... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost Management; Marketing Strategy; Competitive Strategy
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      Elberse, Anita, Ryan Barlow, and Sheldon Wong. "Marquee: The Business of Nightlife." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 510-702, September 2009. (Revised November 2010.)
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Input Constraints and the Efficiency of Entry: Lessons from Cardiac Surgery

      By: David M. Cutler, Robert S. Huckman and Jonathan T. Kolstad
      Prior studies suggest that, with elastically supplied inputs, free entry may lead to an inefficiently high number of firms in equilibrium. Under input scarcity, however, the welfare loss from free entry is reduced. Further, free entry may increase use of high-quality... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Market Entry and Exit; Duopoly and Oligopoly; Government Legislation; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry; Pennsylvania
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      Cutler, David M., Robert S. Huckman, and Jonathan T. Kolstad. "Input Constraints and the Efficiency of Entry: Lessons from Cardiac Surgery." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15214, August 2009.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Input Constraints and the Efficiency of Entry: Lessons from Cardiac Surgery

      By: David M. Cutler, Robert S. Huckman and Jonathan T. Kolstad
      Prior studies suggest that, with elastically supplied inputs, free entry may lead to an inefficiently high number of firms in equilibrium. Under input scarcity, however, the welfare loss from free entry is reduced. Further, free entry may increase use of high-quality... View Details
      Keywords: Government Legislation; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Market Entry and Exit; Welfare; Health Industry; Pennsylvania
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      Cutler, David M., Robert S. Huckman, and Jonathan T. Kolstad. "Input Constraints and the Efficiency of Entry: Lessons from Cardiac Surgery." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-011, August 2009.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture—in the sense of shared beliefs and values—in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Cost vs Benefits; Values and Beliefs; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Motivation and Incentives; Theory
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-003, July 2009.
      • June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
      • Supplement

      Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

      By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin
      Keywords: Present Value; Forecasting; Expansion; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting
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      Stafford, Erik, and Joel L. Heilprin. "Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 094-025, June 2009. (Revised March 2010.)
      • June 2009
      • Article

      Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Film Entertainment; Demand and Consumers; Renting or Rental; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Management Science 55, no. 6 (June 2009): 1047–1059.
      • 2009
      • Article

      Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric

      By: Jolie M. Martin, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman and Lisa Sutherland

      Research over the last several decades indicates the failure of existing nutritional labels to substantially improve the healthiness of consumers' food and beverage choices. The difficulty for policy-makers is to encapsulate a wide body of scientific knowledge in a... View Details

      Keywords: Judgments; Food; Nutrition; Labels; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods
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      Martin, Jolie M., John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman, and Lisa Sutherland. "Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric." Journal of the American Dietetic Association 109, no. 6 (June 2009): 1088–1091.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

      By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley
      This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Globalized Economies and Regions; Multinational Firms and Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Agreements and Arrangements; Southeast Asia; United States
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      Antras, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14891, April 2009.
      • Article

      How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?

      By: Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      Ratings of corporations' environmental activities and capabilities influence billions of dollars of "socially responsible" investments as well as some consumers, activists, and potential employees. In one of the first studies to assess these ratings, we examine how... View Details
      Keywords: Governance Compliance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Performance Effectiveness; Natural Environment; Pollutants
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      Chatterji, Aaron K., David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel. "How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?" Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 18, no. 1 (Spring 2009): 125–169.
      • 2009
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises

      By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
      In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Central Banking; Interest Rates; International Finance; Policy; Crisis Management; Europe
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      Moss, David, and Cole Bolton. "Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises." 2009. (Draft case.)
      • March 2009
      • Article

      Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices

      By: Robin Greenwood
      Firms can manipulate their stock price by limiting the ability of their investors to sell. I examine a series of corporate events in Japan in which firms actively reduced their float—the fraction of shares available to trade—for periods of one to three months, locking... View Details
      Keywords: Equity; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 3 (March 2009): 509–539.
      • May 2009
      • Article

      Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads

      By: Victoria Ivashina
      The paper estimates the cost arising from information asymmetry between the lead bank and members of the lending syndicate. In a lending syndicate, the lead bank retains only a fraction of the loan but acts as the intermediary between the borrower and the syndicate... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Capital; Investment Portfolio; Credit; Diversification; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Ivashina, Victoria. "Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads." Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 2 (May 2009): 300–319.
      • Article

      From Wealth to Well-Being? Money Matters, but Less than People Think

      By: Lara B. Aknin, Michael I. Norton and Elizabeth W. Dunn
      While numerous studies have documented the modest (though reliable) link between household income and well-being, we examined the accuracy of laypeople's intuitions about this relationship by asking people from across the income spectrum to report their own... View Details
      Keywords: Happiness; Work-Life Balance; Satisfaction; Income; Household
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      Aknin, Lara B., Michael I. Norton, and Elizabeth W. Dunn. "From Wealth to Well-Being? Money Matters, but Less than People Think." Journal of Positive Psychology 4, no. 6 (2009): 523–527.
      • January 2009
      • Article

      Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

      By: Malcolm Baker, C. Fritz Foley and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capital markets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals. Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flows increase... View Details
      Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Valuation; Capital Markets; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Stocks; Integration
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      Baker, Malcolm, C. Fritz Foley, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 1 (January 2009): 337–369.
      • Article

      Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns." Journal of Investment Management 7, no. 1 (First Quarter 2009): 36–52.
      • 2009
      • Article

      The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

      By: Walter Friedman
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Problems and Challenges; Economics
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      Friedman, Walter. "The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting." History of Political Economy 41, no. 1 (2009).
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