probability - Publications - Faculty & Research

08 Jun 2011
Lessons from the Classroom

Twenty-first Century Skill: Trading Carbon Credits

European Union's carbon market as a means of testing what happens when markets are linked. There will probably never be a simulation that captures and accurately predicts the intricacies of geopolitics—but it's a start. View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Energy; Utilities

06 Sep 2022
Research & Ideas

Curbing an Unlikely Culprit of Rising Drug Prices: Pharmaceutical Donations

stakeholders, including the patients these charities are ostensibly designed to help,” the paper says. You Might Also Like: Can Amazon Remake Health Care? Why COVID-19 Probably Killed More People Than We Realize Lessons from COVID-19: The... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand; Insurance; Health; Pharmaceutical

01 Aug 2012
What Do You Think?

Should CEOs Worry About ‘Too Big to Succeed?’

it is in the United States." This is just the latest of several studies that all point roughly in the same direction. How then, do we explain the predominant view that we must avoid fostering financial institutions that are too big to fail? Is there a high View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Manufacturing; Financial Services

06 Jul 2009
What Do You Think?

Are You Ready to Manage in an Irrational World?

James Surowiecki) he may have influenced. In his book, Jacobs begins by asserting that, because each of us harbors our own perceptions of reality, "It turns out that most of what we thought we knew about management is probably... View Details

Keywords: by Jim Heskett

29 May 2007
First Look

First Look: May 29, 2007

Dilip Soman Abstract Decision researchers have long been interested in behaviors that deviate from rational choice. Of these, the compromise effect has received considerable attention, with it repeatedly shown that the probability of... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

10 Jul 2000
Research & Ideas

Entrepreneurship in Europe

entrepreneurship, a field they hadn't considered academic for a long time. The emergence of global start-ups, said Kuemmerle, has occurred very quickly. "An early global presence is very important, because business models are migrating so fast. Amazon, if they... View Details

Keywords: by Kenneth Liss

12 Jan 2018
Cold Call Podcast

Leadership Lessons from a Young Martin Luther King, Jr.

Kenny: They also encouraged him to continue his education, which was highly unusual at that time, right? George: Well, certainly for a minister as well. I mean, if an African American was fortunate enough to get into medical school or law school, View Details

13 Oct 2015
Research & Ideas

Does Business Get Done the Same Way in Emerging and Developed Countries?

destruction is an old idea, going back at least to Schumpeter. We typically associate it with entrepreneurship. Someone has a brilliant new idea, everyone is excited and the entrepreneur and his customers are much better off. But, in the meantime, someone else’s... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

12 Jul 2010
Research & Ideas

Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide

aligned in their thinking. Analysts are often in frequent and close contact with management, even though they're not privy to inside information. Examining analysts' sales forecasts in 2008 reveals that analysts—and probably managers... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Retail; Auto

10 Jun 2002
Research & Ideas

How to Look at Globalization Now

probably the single most remarkable thing about the historical narrative is the length of time for which firms' international economic activities were apparently motivated entirely by considerations of arbitrage, with no replication in... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

02 Mar 2020
What Do You Think?

Are Candor, Humility, and Trust Making a Comeback?

rarely will one end up on the wrong side of right with these values.” Rod R. said, “Comeback? These have always been essential and valued if you are strolling through life as a not trustworthy person that is arrogant and doesn’t listen to others, you’re View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

09 Oct 2019
Research & Ideas

For Better Ideas, Bring the Right People to the Brainstorm

conversation with an extroverted person, they not only generated more ideas, but the ideas they came up with scored roughly 15 percent to 20 percent higher. “What we think happens is an extroverted person is going to say a lot of relevant and irrelevant things, a lot... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

16 May 2018
Research & Ideas

How Companies Managed Risk (and Even Benefitted) in World War Internment Camps

or chemistry in the camp library. In the family camp, some women were even allowed to keep servants. “They had a good time relative to what was happening in other geographies,” says Giacomin. “Eventually, their major problem was boredom. In that sense it created a... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Manufacturing

07 Aug 2017
Research & Ideas

'Be Yourself (Within Reason)' and Other Job Search Survival Tips

that thinking about a job as a relationship could serve job seekers in other fields. If you are reading this, you probably have the good fortune to have made some choices about the jobs you took or are going to take. Prestige and money... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Accounting; Education

30 May 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, May 30

approach for analyzing decision problems. A running example illustrates problem structuring (decision trees), probability assessment, endpoint evaluation, “folding back the tree” as a method of analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Purchase... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

03 Nov 2014
Research & Ideas

Brand Lessons From the Nobel Prize

in the first sentence of the obit, "BLANK, who won a Nobel Prize for his work in BLANK ." Greyser says. "I've been watching the obits of laureates ever since we started this work. And to a person, that is in the first sentence." The Nobel Prize, they say, "is View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

06 Aug 2014
What Do You Think?

What Is Warren Bennis’s Legacy?

optimistic, looking forward, and learning. They exhibited what is described by the word, "neoteny," the retention of youthful qualities by adults. (It helps explain why Bennis included himself in the sample of persons studied as "geezers.") Many of... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Education

11 Nov 2013
Research & Ideas

A Smarter Way to Reduce Customer Defections

should consider not only the churn probability of customers, but also how much they spend, the likelihood that they will respond to a retention offer, and the cost of the offer itself. Gupta's predictive model takes all these factors into... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman; Retail; Service

15 Apr 2013
Research & Ideas

Solving the Search vs. Display Advertising Quandary

advertising agency on how much money was spent and how the funds were allocated. In addition, he received data on how many consumers "converted" after clicking on search and display ads. Because a decision to open a bank account is View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Advertising

04 Jan 2012
What Do You Think?

Income Inequality: What’s the Right Amount?

"Over longer horizons, reduced inequality and sustained growth may thus be two sides of the same coin." If we were to graph economic growth vs. the Gini Coefficient, it would probably show some kind of parabola in which the... View Details