predictions - Publications - Faculty & Research

June 2021
Technical Note

Introduction to Linear Regression

This technical note introduces (from an applied point of view) the theory and application of simple and multiple linear regression. The motivation for the model is introduced, as well as how to interpret the summary output with regard to prediction and statistical... View Details

Keywords: Linear Regression; Regression; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk and Uncertainty; Theory; Compensation and Benefits; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science

Citation

Educators

25 Feb 2019
Research & Ideas

How Gender Stereotypes Kill a Woman’s Self-Confidence

predicting their own abilities, women had much less confidence in their scores on the tests they believed men had an advantage in. “Gender stereotypes determine people’s beliefs about themselves and others,” Coffman says. “If I take a... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

29 Aug 2013
Working Paper Summaries

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

Keywords: by Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin & Andrei Shleifer

09 Nov 2017
HBS Seminar

Alfonso Gambardella, Bocconi University

26 Mar 2007
Research & Ideas

Learning from Failed Political Leadership

people's minds. This book takes a long look ahead—yes, the future can and must be envisaged, and it can be done well—and devises a strategy based on what is to come, not what is past. Business leaders must be able to predict the changing... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

2018
Article

Knowledge about Tuberculosis and Infection Prevention Behavior: A Nine City Longitudinal Study from India

By: Sophie Huddart, Thomas Bossuroy, Vincent Pons, Siddhartha Baral, Madhukar Pai and Clara Delavallade

Background
Improving patients’ tuberculosis (TB) knowledge is a salient component of TB control strategies. Patient knowledge of TB may encourage infection prevention behaviors and improve treatment adherence. The purpose of this study is to examine how... View Details

Keywords: Health Disorders; Knowledge Dissemination; Behavior; India

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2012
Working Paper

The First Deal: The Division of Founder Equity in New Ventures

By: Thomas F. Hellmann and Noam Wasserman

This paper examines the division of founder shares in entrepreneurial ventures, focusing on the decision of whether or not to divide the shares equally among all founders. To motivate the empirical analysis we develop a simple theory of costly bargaining, where... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Equity

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2010
Working Paper

Substitution Patterns of the Random Coefficients Logit

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Andrew Ainslie

Previous research suggests that the random coefficients logit is a highly flexible model that overcomes the problems of the homogeneous logit by allowing for differences in tastes across individuals. The purpose of this paper is to show that this is not true. We prove... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Mathematical Methods; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias

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Research Summary

Biological Basis of Economic Behavior

Terry Burnham's research focuses on understanding human behavior, and economic behavior in particular, in the context of humans as evolved animals. This research aims to reconcile two competing views within economics. The mainstream economic view is that economic... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Property Rights and Urban Form

By: Simeon Djankov, Edward L. Glaeser, Valeria Perotti and Andrei Shleifer

How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights, including those of possession and transfer, influence the shape of cities? This paper incorporates insecure property rights into a standard model of urban land prices and density, and makes... View Details

Keywords: Property; Rights; City; Development Economics; Global Range

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2012
Article

Behavioral Economics and the Psychology of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption

By: Joe Price and Jason Riis

Behavioral economics is an emerging paradigm that challenges the assumptions and predictions of classical economics. This new paradigm emphasizes that consumers do not always make optimal use of available information nor do they always make choices and tradeoffs in a... View Details

Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Food; Social Marketing; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Nutrition

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2010
Working Paper

Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes

By: William R. Kerr and Scott Duke Kominers

We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Geographic Location; Patents; Labor; Industry Clusters; Industry Structures; Relationships; Competitive Advantage; Technology Industry; California

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29 May 2018
News

A Study of NASA Scientists Shows How to Overcome Barriers to Open Innovation

November, 2021
Article

Self Control and Smartphone Use: An Experimental Study of Soft Commitment Devices

By: Ruru Hoong

Public discussion and discourse amongst researchers suggest that smartphone use is excessive from an individual welfare standpoint, but evidence for this remains limited. I implement a randomized intervention encouraging a subset of 629 participants to adopt soft... View Details

Keywords: Social Media; Commitment; Randomized Controlled Trial; Smartphones; Addiction; Technological Change: Choices And Consequences; Behavior; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Well-being

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2022
Working Paper

Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets

By: Jonathan Wallen

On average from 2013 to 2020, foreign asset managers in net sold forward 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars. This forward sale of dollars hedges the currency mismatch of foreign investment in U.S. dollar assets. By accommodating this demand, U.S. and European banks earn an... View Details

Keywords: Foreign Exchange; Financial Intermediation; Arbitrage; Market Power; Regulations; Currency; Assets; Interest Rates; Banking Industry

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July–August 2021
Article

Why You Aren't Getting More from Your Marketing AI

By: Eva Ascarza, Michael Ross and Bruce G.S. Hardie

Fewer than 40% of companies that invest in AI see gains from it, usually because of one or more of these errors: (1) They don’t ask the right question, and end up directing AI to solve the wrong problem. (2) They don’t recognize the differences between the value of... View Details

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Decision Making; Communication; Framework; AI and Machine Learning

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2016
Working Paper

Innovation Network

By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and William Kerr

Technological progress builds upon itself, with the expansion of invention in one domain propelling future work in linked fields. Our analysis uses 1.8 million U.S. patents and their citation properties to map the innovation network and its strength. Past innovation... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Growth; Networks; Patents; Industry Growth; Technology Industry

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December 2007
Article

The Malleability of Environmentalism

By: Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, Min Li, Leigh L. Thompson and Max Bazerman

In this paper, we predict and find that self-perceptions of environmentalism are changed by subtle manipulations of context and, in turn, affect environmental behavior. In Study 1, we found that people exhibit greater positive assessments of their environmental... View Details

Keywords: Research; Environmental Sustainability; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Identity; Perception; Personal Characteristics

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March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
Case

Satellite Radio

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown

In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted... View Details

Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Problems and Challenges; Network Effects; Partners and Partnerships; Information Technology; Business Model; Investment Return; Auto Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States

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Educators

Purchase

March 2009
Article

Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices

By: Robin Greenwood

Firms can manipulate their stock price by limiting the ability of their investors to sell. I examine a series of corporate events in Japan in which firms actively reduced their float—the fraction of shares available to trade—for periods of one to three months, locking... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Japan