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      • fall 2007
      • Article

      The Design of Patent Pools: The Determinants of Licensing Rules

      By: Josh Lerner, Marcin Strojwas and Jean Tirole
      Patent pools are an important but little-studied economic institution. In this paper, we first make a set of predictions about the licensing terms associated with patent pools. The theoretical framework predicts that (a) pools consisting of complementary patents are... View Details
      Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Rights
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      Lerner, Josh, Marcin Strojwas, and Jean Tirole. "The Design of Patent Pools: The Determinants of Licensing Rules." RAND Journal of Economics 38, no. 3 (fall 2007): 610–625. (Earlier version distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 9680.)
      • September – October 2007
      • Article

      Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Nathan Sosner
      n April 2000, 30 stocks were replaced in the Nikkei 225 Index. The unusually broad index redefinition allowed for a study of the effects of index-linked trading on the excess comovement of stock returns. A large increase occurred in the correlation of trading volume of... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Nathan Sosner. "Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 63, no. 5 (September–October 2007): 69–81.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are

      By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman
      This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias
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      Tenbrunsel, Ann E., Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, and Max H. Bazerman. "The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-012, August 2007. (revised January 2009, previously titled "Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are: A Temporal Explanation.")
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns

      By: Glenn Ellison, Edward Glaeser and William R. Kerr
      Many industries are geographically concentrated. Many mechanisms that could account for such agglomeration have been proposed. We note that these theories make different predictions about which pairs of industries should be coagglomerated. We discuss the measurement of... View Details
      Keywords: Geographic Location; Labor; Industry Clusters; Transportation; Manufacturing Industry; United States
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      Ellison, Glenn, Edward Glaeser, and William R. Kerr. "What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-064, July 2007. (NBER WP 13068; published in American Economic Review.)
      • June 2007 (Revised August 2007)
      • Case

      Dressen (Abridged) (A)

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      John Lynch, CEO of the Dressen Division of Westinghouse, was elated by the proposed leveraged buyout by the private equity firm, Warburg Pincus Ventures. The buyout would rid the division of a 'bad' parent and place the division's destiny in its own hands. A recently... View Details
      Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Private Equity; Bids and Bidding; Valuation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Dressen (Abridged) (A)." Harvard Business School Case 207-125, June 2007. (Revised August 2007.)
      • June 2007
      • Article

      Does Employment Protection Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States

      By: David H Autor, William R. Kerr and Adriana D. Kugler
      Theory predicts that mandated employment protections may reduce productivity by distorting production choices. Firms facing (non-Coasean) worker dismissal costs will curtail hiring below efficient levels and retain unproductive workers, both of which should affect... View Details
      Keywords: Theory; Production; Selection and Staffing; Cost; Employment; Capital; Performance Productivity; United States
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      Autor, David H., William R. Kerr, and Adriana D. Kugler. "Does Employment Protection Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States." Economic Journal 117, no. 521 (June 2007): 189–217.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Attitudes; Conflict and Resolution; Emotions; Film Entertainment; Cognition and Thinking; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-099, June 2007. (Revised July 2007, December 2007, April 2008, September 2008, January 2009.)
      • May 2007 (Revised August 2007)
      • Case

      Prediction Markets at Google

      By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee
      In its eight quarters of operation, Google's internally developed prediction market has delivered accurate and decisive predictions about future events of interest to the company. Google must now determine how to increase participation in the market, and how to best... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Market Participation; Information Technology
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      Coles, Peter A., Karim R. Lakhani, and Andrew P. McAfee. "Prediction Markets at Google." Harvard Business School Case 607-088, May 2007. (Revised August 2007.)
      • May 2007 (Revised April 2008)
      • Case

      Tiger-Tread

      By: Rohit Deshpande and Richard Cardozo
      Describes an innovative product launch for which a marketing plan and a breakeven analysis are needed. To introduce students to breakeven analysis and the essentials of developing a marketing plan. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Planning
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      Deshpande, Rohit, and Richard Cardozo. "Tiger-Tread." Harvard Business School Case 507-077, May 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
      • February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
      • Supplement

      Multifactor Models (CW)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation
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      Baker, Malcolm P. "Multifactor Models (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 207-710, February 2007. (Revised January 2008.)
      • January 2007 (Revised April 2008)
      • Case

      The Case of the Unidentified Industries - 2006

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Helps students to understand how the characteristics of a business are reflected in its financial statements. View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Business Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Management
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "The Case of the Unidentified Industries - 2006." Harvard Business School Case 207-096, January 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
      • Article

      The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

      By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Investment Return; Economics; Stocks; Capital; Business Earnings; Investment Portfolio; Investment Funds; Cost; Saving
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      Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2007): 277–291.
      • August 2006
      • Case

      Dreyer's Slow Churned(TM) Ice Cream

      By: Noel H. Watson, Steven C. Wheelwright and Brian DeLacey
      Examines capacity forecasting and planning in a complex new product introduction scenario. The introduction at Dreyer's, a large dairy snack manufacturer, involves not only a new product but a new manufacturing process and product package, thus implying a significant... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Forecasting and Prediction; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Product Development; Planning; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
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      Watson, Noel H., Steven C. Wheelwright, and Brian DeLacey. "Dreyer's Slow Churned(TM) Ice Cream." Harvard Business School Case 607-018, August 2006.
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?

      By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return
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      Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
      • July 2006
      • Article

      Climate Change As a Predictable Surprise

      By: M. H. Bazerman
      Keywords: Change
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      Bazerman, M. H. "Climate Change As a Predictable Surprise." Climatic Change (July 2006): 1–15.
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

      By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
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      Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-004, July 2006.
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

      By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock... View Details
      Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Household
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      Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
      • May 2006
      • Case

      Nokia in 2003

      By: Paul M. Healy
      Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations.... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Evaluation; Problems and Challenges; Electronics Industry
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      Healy, Paul M. "Nokia in 2003." Harvard Business School Case 106-067, May 2006.
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