Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research

July 2006
Article

Do a Firm's Equity Returns Reflect the Risk of Its Pension Plan?

By: Li Jin, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

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05 Dec 2013
News

Are U.S. Companies Risking Their Own Future By Not Investing At Home?

Article

Who, When, and Why: A Machine Learning Approach to Prioritizing Students at Risk of Not Graduating High School on Time

By: Everaldo Aguiar, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Nasir Bhanpuri, David Miller, Ben Yuhas, Kecia Addison and Rayid Ghani

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2022
Working Paper

Capitalism and Global Governance in Business History: A Roundtable Discussion

By: Sabine Pitteloud, Grace Ballor, Patricia Clavin, Nicolás M. Perrone, Neil Rollings and Quinn Slobodian

This working paper brings together a diverse group of scholars to discuss the historiography of capitalism, business history and global governance and lay the foundations for further research in this area. Grace Ballor and Sabine Pitteloud open the discussion with a... View Details

Keywords: Capitalism; Business History; Multinational Corporation; Business And Government Relations; Business And Society; Business And The Environment; International Relations; Regulation; Business Interest Association; Lobbying; Private Governance; State-business Relations; Political Risk; Neo-Liberalism; Governance; Globalized Firms and Management; Government and Politics

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2005
Book

Make Your Own Luck: 12 Practical Steps to Taking Smarter Risks in Business

By: H. Stevenson and Eileen C. Shapiro

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Business Ventures

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June 2009
Supplement

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital, Instructors Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Risk Management; Valuation; Capital Structure; Cash Flow

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14 Dec 2016
Working Paper Summaries

The State of Small Business Lending: Innovation and Technology and the Implications for Regulation

Keywords: by Karen Gordon Mills and Brayden McCarthy; Financial Services

July 2022
Article

Countercyclical Prudential Buffers and Bank Risk-taking

By: Manuel Illueca, Lars Norden, Joseph Pacelli and Gregory F. Udell

We investigate the effects of countercyclical prudential buffers on bank risk-taking. We exploit the introduction of dynamic loan loss provisioning in Spain, mandating that banks use historical average loss rates in their estimation of loan loss provisions. We find... View Details

Keywords: Banks; Bank Regulation; Macroprudential Policies; Bank Lending; Loan Loss Provisioning; Risk Taking; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty

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February 2018
Article

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection

By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane

During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details

Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis

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December 2021
Case

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape

By: Eugene F. Soltes, Grace Liu and Muneeb Ahmed

In 2018, automotive tycoon Carlos Ghosn was arrested in Japan on financial misreporting charges, followed later by charges of improper payments and misappropriation of funds. Over a year later, still awaiting trial, Ghosn organized his escape from house arrest in Tokyo... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Law; Courts and Trials; Rights; Risk and Uncertainty; Auto Industry; Japan

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June 2009
Teaching Note

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

Teaching Note for 4129 View Details

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Capital Structure; Cash Flow

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September 2012
Article

The Relationship Between Economic Preferences and Psychological Personality Measures

By: Anke Becker, Thomas Deckers, Thomas Dohmen, Armin Falk and Fabian Kosse

Although both economists and psychologists seek to identify determinants of heterogeneity in behavior, they use different concepts to capture them. In this review, we first analyze the extent to which economic preferences and psychological concepts of personality, such... View Details

Keywords: Risk Preference; Time Preference; Social Preferences; Locus Of Control; Big Five; Economics; Behavior; Personal Characteristics

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03 Dec 2020
Research & Ideas

Cut Payroll Costs with Transparency, Fairness, and Compassion

laid off 3,000 part-time and seasonal employees, primarily those with “short tenure” and those who “worked limited hours.” Elaborating on why they chose to do layoffs rather than furloughs, the company... View Details

Keywords: by Boris Groysberg and Sarah Abbott

08 Oct 2020
Research & Ideas

Keep Your Weary Workers Engaged and Motivated

example by giving rewards for both individual and team performance. Without direct oversight, “Relationships can all too readily slide into cutthroat competition or totally collusive bonding. Either extreme will harm the firm's... View Details

Keywords: by Boris Groysberg and Robin Abrahams

2022
Article

Missing Novelty in Drug Development

By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou

We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to... View Details

Keywords: Drug Development; Risk Aversion; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Investment; Pharmaceutical Industry

2023
Working Paper

Complexity and Time

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives

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January 2021
Case

Cinépolis

By: Joshua D. Margolis and Fernanda Miguel

Two weeks after Cinepolis released a documentary film about corruption, a judge ordered its provisional suspension, claiming it had to be edited before it continued to be shown, against Mexican cinematography laws. Cinépolis, Latin America’s largest movie theater chain... View Details

Keywords: Movies; Entertainment; Corruption; Risk Assessment; Communication Strategy; Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Film Entertainment; Ethics; Leadership; Risk Management; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Mexico; Latin America; North and Central America

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November 2012 (Revised April 2013)
Case

Konys, Inc.

By: Deishin Lee and Tunay I. Tunca

This case describes the sourcing policy for a consumer electronics company. The company must decide how to structure contracts with their supplier—using a purchase contract, an option contract, or combination of the two. The company can also buy from the spot market.... View Details

Keywords: Option Contract; Uncertainty; Sourcing; Supplier Relationship; Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Supply Chain; Consumer Products Industry; Electronics Industry

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2019
Other Unpublished Work

Mexico's Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico

By: Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Benjamin Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen Reinhart and Liliana Rojas-Suarez

Keywords: Financial Risk; Finance; Economics; Mexico; Latin America

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