Forecasts - Publications - Faculty & Research

27 Mar 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research, March 27, 2018

sell-side analysts employed at state-owned brokerages issued relatively optimistic earnings forecasts and stock recommendations during these periods. This relative optimism is particularly pronounced in earnings View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

27 May 2014
First Look

First Look: May 27

forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly significant predictive pooled regression slope for future quarterly returns of 0.86, whereas the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

December 1990 (Revised December 1993)
Supplement

Australian Paper Manufacturers (B)

By: David M. Upton and Joshua D. Margolis

Describes events that occur after the decision point in Australian Paper Manufacturers (A). With these facts and more detailed market projections, this case intensifies the long-term financial, strategic, and ethical decisions confronting the invader. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Strategy; Ethics; Pulp and Paper Industry; Australia

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Forthcoming
Article

An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces

By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton

It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing

01 Dec 2014
News

These Walls Can Talk

that is forecasted to grow to almost $39 billion in the next five years. Shortly after Liang joined SmartThings, Samsung purchased the two-year-old company for a rumored $200 million. SmartThings sells a hardware hub to network your... View Details

Keywords: April White

07 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin

28 Sep 2010
First Look

First Look: September 28, 2010

information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast errors of other firms. We also find... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

August 2016
Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John

Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details

Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction

18 Jan 2012
News

Charter Supporter

headquartered in Waterloo, Wisconsin. While there, she set up Trek’s sales and distribution companies across Europe and worked in forecasting and planning. Since 2007, she has devoted her energy and skills full time to the nonprofit... View Details

Keywords: Arts, Sports, Language, Driving, and Other Schools; Educational Services

August 2018
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch

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2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

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2010
Working Paper

A New Model of Leadership (PDF File of Keynote Slides)

By: Michael C. Jensen and Allan L. Scherr

In this paper we provide a new definition of leadership that gives organizations and individuals access to new power, performance and accomplishment. In our model leadership consists of four critical elements The creation of a vision for the future that represents a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Dissemination; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; System

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1995
Chapter

Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability

By: S. B. White, M. H. Bazerman and M. A. Neale

Keywords: Negotiation; Outcome or Result; Forecasting and Prediction

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February 2013
Article

Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews

By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino

Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction; Research

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November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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June 1999
Article

Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

By: F. Frei and P. Harker

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

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May 1990
Background Note

Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide

By: Robert J. Dolan

Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

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15 Sep 2016
Research & Ideas

Political Dysfunction Makes America Less Competitive

system, transportation infrastructure, and healthcare. Business leaders have grown increasingly pessimistic and aren’t expecting much of an uptick in the near future. Fifty percent of those surveyed expect US competitiveness to decline in the next three years, while... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

2023
Working Paper

'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence

By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger

Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

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