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      • Faculty Publications  (1,057)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • February 2010
      • Article

      Input Constraints and the Efficiency of Entry: Lessons from Cardiac Surgery

      By: David M. Cutler, Robert S. Huckman and Jonathan T. Kolstad
      Prior studies suggest that, with elastically supplied inputs, free entry may lead to an inefficiently high number of firms in equilibrium. Under input scarcity, however, the welfare loss from free entry is reduced. Further, free entry may increase use of high-quality... View Details
      Keywords: Government Legislation; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Market Entry and Exit; Welfare; Health Industry; Pennsylvania
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      Cutler, David M., Robert S. Huckman, and Jonathan T. Kolstad. "Input Constraints and the Efficiency of Entry: Lessons from Cardiac Surgery." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2, no. 1 (February 2010): 51–76.
      • January 2010 (Revised March 2013)
      • Case

      HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

      By: F. Asis Martinez Jerez, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery and Lisa Brem
      HubSpot, a web marketing startup is under pressure from VCs to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. In the case, students explore the drivers of customer churn and uncover opportunities to increase customer retention across the... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Happiness; Consulting Industry
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      Martinez Jerez, F. Asis, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery, and Lisa Brem. "HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI." Harvard Business School Case 110-052, January 2010. (Revised March 2013.)
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
      A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
      • January 2010
      • Journal Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
      Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West, and Christian Lebiere. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
      • Article

      Are Self-service Customers Satisfied or Stuck?

      By: Ryan W. Buell, Dennis Campbell and Frances X. Frei
      This paper investigates the impact of self-service technology (SST) usage on customer satisfaction and retention. Specifically, we disentangle the distinct effects of satisfaction and switching costs as drivers of retention among self-service customers. Our empirical... View Details
      Keywords: Service Delivery; Information Technology; Customer Satisfaction; Competition; Cost; Banks and Banking; Behavior; Market Transactions; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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      Buell, Ryan W., Dennis Campbell, and Frances X. Frei. "Are Self-service Customers Satisfied or Stuck?" Production and Operations Management 19, no. 6 (November–December 2010). (Awarded the Decision Sciences Institute Stan Hardy Award for Outstanding Paper Published during 2010 in the Field of Operations Management.)
      • Article

      Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements

      By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details
      Keywords: Competency and Skills; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Funds; Earnings Management
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      Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 45, no. 5 (October 2010): 1111 –1131.
      • January 2010
      • Article

      Clusters of Entrepreneurship

      By: Edward L. Glaeser, William R. Kerr and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto
      Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Cost; Employment; Market Entry and Exit
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      Glaeser, Edward L., William R. Kerr, and Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto. "Clusters of Entrepreneurship." Journal of Urban Economics 67, no. 1 (January 2010): 150–168.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth

      By: Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych
      The key in the investigation of "where" and "why" capital flows, relative to the neoclassical benchmark, is how we measure these flows. The macro literature has been using three main yardsticks: the current account balance, returns to capital, and the volume of net... View Details
      Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Performance Productivity; Capital; Economics
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      Alfaro, Laura, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Vadym Volosovych. "International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w17396.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      The Architecture of Complex Systems: Do Core-periphery Structures Dominate?

      By: Alan MacCormack, Carliss Y. Baldwin and John Rusnak

      Any complex technological system can be decomposed into a number of subsystems and associated components, some of which are core to system function while others are only peripheral. The dynamics of how such "core-periphery" structures evolve and become embedded in a... View Details

      Keywords: Innovation and Management; Product Design; Practice; Core Relationships; Software; Information Technology Industry
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      MacCormack, Alan, Carliss Y. Baldwin, and John Rusnak. "The Architecture of Complex Systems: Do Core-periphery Structures Dominate?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-059, January 2010.
      • Article

      The Counterfeit Self: The Deceptive Costs of Faking It

      By: Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton and Dan Ariely
      Although people buy counterfeit products to signal positive traits, we show that wearing counterfeit products makes individuals feel less authentic and increases their likelihood of both behaving dishonestly and judging others as unethical. In four experiments,... View Details
      Keywords: Judgments; Ethics; Brands and Branding; Product; Behavior; Personal Characteristics
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      Gino, Francesca, Michael I. Norton, and Dan Ariely. "The Counterfeit Self: The Deceptive Costs of Faking It." Psychological Science 21, no. 5 (May 2010): 712–720.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence and Exceptions

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
      The mirroring hypothesis predicts that the organizational patterns of a development project (e.g. communication links, geographic collocation, team and firm co-membership) will correspond to the technical patterns of dependency in the system under development. Scholars... View Details
      Keywords: Infrastructure; Product Design; Organizational Design; Practice; Groups and Teams; Social and Collaborative Networks; Information Technology
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y. "The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence and Exceptions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-058, January 2010. (Revised June 2010.)
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents

      By: Dutch Leonard and Arnold M. Howitt
      The world has seen a number of recent events in which major systems came to a standstill, not from one cause alone but from the interaction of a combination of causes. System-level accidents occur when anomalies or errors in different parts of an interconnected system... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Globalization; Risk Management; Boundaries; System Shocks
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      Leonard, Dutch, and Arnold M. Howitt. "Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents." In Integrative Risk Management: Advanced Disaster Recovery, edited by Simon Woodward. Zurich, Switzerland: Swiss Re, Centre for Global Dialogue, 2010.
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      When Does Leadership Matter? A Contingent Opportunities View of CEO Leadership

      By: Noam Wasserman, Nitin Nohria and Bharat Anand
      There is by now a long-standing debate on the impact that CEOs have on company performance. Studies of leadership describe how CEOs can significantly impact company performance, while the "constraints" perspective argues that leaders are sufficiently constrained by... View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Leadership; Performance Improvement; Research; Opportunities
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      Wasserman, Noam, Nitin Nohria, and Bharat Anand. "When Does Leadership Matter? A Contingent Opportunities View of CEO Leadership." Chap. 2 in Handbook of Leadership Theory and Practice, edited by Nitin Nohria and Rakesh Khurana. Harvard Business Press, 2010.
      • December 2009
      • Case

      TruEarth Healthy Foods: Market Research for a New Product Introduction

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Sunru Yong
      Topics covered include: consumer marketing, market research, new product introduction, and quantitative analysis. TruEarth Healthy Foods, a maker of gourmet pastas, sauces, and meals, wants to build on its successful introduction of fresh whole grain pasta by... View Details
      Keywords: Market Research; Consumer Marketing; Brands; Food; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Brands and Branding; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Sunru Yong. "TruEarth Healthy Foods: Market Research for a New Product Introduction." Harvard Business School Brief Case 094-065, December 2009.
      • December 2009
      • Article

      Catering Through Nominal Share Prices

      By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering incentives... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation
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      Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering Through Nominal Share Prices." Journal of Finance 64, no. 6 (December 2009): 2559–2590. (Internet Appendix.)
      • 2009
      • Other Paper

      Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries

      By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Andrew F. Newman and Harald Fadinger
      We examine how trade policy affects firms' organizational choices. We embed a model of firms' vertical integration decisions into a standard perfectly-competitive international trade framework. In the model, integration decisions are driven by a trade-off... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Policy; Ownership; Business and Government Relations; Vertical Integration; Boundaries
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      Alfaro, Laura, Paola Conconi, Andrew F. Newman, and Harald Fadinger. "Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries."
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation

      By: Kathleen L. McGinn, Katherine L Milkman and Markus Noth
      We study the framing effects of communication in multiparty bargaining. Communication has been shown to be more truthful and revealing than predicted in equilibrium. Because talk is preference-revealing, it may effectively frame bargaining around a logic of fairness or... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Competition; Negotiation Process; Negotiation Types; Fairness; Interpersonal Communication; Game Theory; Cooperation
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      McGinn, Kathleen L., Katherine L Milkman, and Markus Noth. "Walking the Talk in Multiparty Bargaining: An Experimental Investigation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-039, November 2009.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Stock Price Fragility

      By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
      We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. An asset is fragile if its owners collectively have to buy or sell. Such assets are susceptible to non-fundamental price movements. An asset can be fragile because... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Price; Market Transactions; Ownership; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
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      Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-031, October 2009.
      • October 2009 (Revised July 2012)
      • Case

      Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count

      By: Elie Ofek, Jason Riis and Paul Hamilton
      Emotiv is getting ready to launch its innovative brain-computer interfacing (BCI) technology. The company has developed a special headset, called EPOC, and highly sophisticated software that can translate a person's emotions, cognitive thoughts, and facial expressions... View Details
      Keywords: Technology Adoption; Sales; Technological Innovation; Demand and Consumers; Marketing Strategy; Partners and Partnerships; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Business Startups; Technology Industry
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      Ofek, Elie, Jason Riis, and Paul Hamilton. "Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count." Harvard Business School Case 510-050, October 2009. (Revised July 2012.)
      • October 2009 (Revised January 2010)
      • Case

      The University of Notre Dame Endowment

      By: Andre F. Perold and Paul Michael Buser
      The Endowment Model of Investing, which was based on creating high risk-adjusted performance through diversification, a long time horizon, top-notch outside managers, and illiquid investments, had served Notre Dame and other large universities well over the past... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Higher Education; Asset Management; Private Equity; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Risk Management; Performance Evaluation; Education Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Perold, Andre F., and Paul Michael Buser. "The University of Notre Dame Endowment." Harvard Business School Case 210-007, October 2009. (Revised January 2010.)
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