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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,287)
- News (115)
- Research (1,047)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (799)
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- 12 Jul 2010
- Research & Ideas
Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide
Demand With total revenue likely to fluctuate much more than in the past, managers must be ready to take anticipatory action. Consequently, they should improve their ability to forecast aggregate demand. Supply chains during the last few... View Details
- 2023
- Article
On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation
By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details
Gao, Ruijiang, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 40th (2023): 10727–10743.
- 2010
- Working Paper
A New Model of Leadership (PDF File of Keynote Slides)
By: Michael C. Jensen and Allan L. Scherr
In this paper we provide a new definition of leadership that gives organizations and individuals access to new power, performance and accomplishment. In our model leadership consists of four critical elements The creation of a vision for the future that represents a... View Details
- 28 Sep 2010
- First Look
First Look: September 28, 2010
information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast errors of other firms. We also find... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 1995
- Chapter
Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability
By: S. B. White, M. H. Bazerman and M. A. Neale
White, S. B., M. H. Bazerman, and M. A. Neale. "Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability." In Research on Negotiation in Organizations, edited by R. J. Bies, R. Lewicki, and B. Sheppard. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1995.
- February 2013
- Article
Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews
By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino
Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such... View Details
Simonsohn, U., and F. Gino. "Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews." Psychological Science 24, no. 2 (February 2013): 219–224.
- November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
- Background Note
Sampling and Statistical Inference
An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Sampling and Statistical Inference." Harvard Business School Background Note 191-092, November 1990. (Revised August 1996.)
- June 1999
- Article
Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA
By: F. Frei and P. Harker
Frei, F., and P. Harker. "Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA." Journal of Productivity Analysis 11, no. 3 (June 1999): 275–300.
- May 1990
- Background Note
Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide
By: Robert J. Dolan
Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details
Dolan, Robert J. "Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-059, May 1990.
- September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
- Case
Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents
By: Elie Ofek
Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
Ofek, Elie. "Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents." Harvard Business School Case 509-028, September 2008. (Revised June 2011.)
- 12 Feb 2008
- First Look
First Look: February 12, 2007
but all share a belief in the importance of understanding change over time. Publisher's site: http://www.oup.com/us/catalog/general/subject/Business/History/ The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- May 2024
- Article
Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others
By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles
Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details
Ruttan, Rachel, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli, and Katherine DeCelles. "Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 126, no. 5 (May 2024): 818–840.
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
- January 2021
- Article
Using Models to Persuade
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model... View Details
Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework
Schwartzstein, Joshua, and Adi Sunderam. "Using Models to Persuade." American Economic Review 111, no. 1 (January 2021): 276–323.
- August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
- Technical Note
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
- February 2018
- Supplement
People Analytics at Teach For America (B)
By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to extend his team’s predictive analytics work using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. View Details
- February 1984 (Revised February 1986)
- Case
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide
By: W. Carl Kester, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr. and Stacy S. Dick
Disequilibrium in the $350 million TiO2 market has prompted Du Pont's Pigments Department to develop two strategies for competing in this market in the future. The growth strategy has a smaller internal rate of return than the alternative strategy due to large capital... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Growth and Development Strategy; Strategic Planning; Projects; Chemical Industry
Kester, W. Carl, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr., and Stacy S. Dick. "E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide." Harvard Business School Case 284-066, February 1984. (Revised February 1986.)
- Article
Traveling Agents: Political Change and Bureaucratic Turnover in India
By: Lakshmi Iyer and Anandi Mani
We develop a framework to empirically examine how politicians with electoral pressures control bureaucrats with career concerns as well as the consequences for bureaucrats' career investments. Unique micro-level data on Indian bureaucrats support our key predictions.... View Details
Keywords: Framework; Government and Politics; Investment; Competency and Skills; Personal Development and Career; Rank and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; India
Iyer, Lakshmi, and Anandi Mani. "Traveling Agents: Political Change and Bureaucratic Turnover in India." Review of Economics and Statistics 94, no. 3 (August 2012): 723–739.
- January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
- Background Note
Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process
By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner
Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details
Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
Abdelal, Rawi E., and Christopher Bruner. "Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process." Harvard Business School Background Note 705-027, January 2005. (Revised October 2005.)
- 2007
- Working Paper
The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are
By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman
This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias
Tenbrunsel, Ann E., Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, and Max H. Bazerman. "The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-012, August 2007. (revised January 2009, previously titled "Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are: A Temporal Explanation.")