Publications

October 2017 (Revised April 2018)
Case

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)

By: Michael W. Toffel, Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Matthew S. Johnson

Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How much inventory do I need? How intensively should I monitor my suppliers? Which potential customers will be most responsive to a particular marketing campaign? Which job candidates should I... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Policy Implementation; Empirical Research; Inspection; Occupational Safety; Occupational Health; Regulation; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Safety; Manufacturing Industry; Construction Industry; United States

October 2012
Case

Dispensers of California, Inc.

By: David A. Wilson and David Hawkins

An investor seeking capital must prepare projected financial statements for a new business. View Details

Keywords: Financial Statement Preparation; Accounting Process; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Financial Statements; Business Startups; Capital; California

January 2000 (Revised February 2007)
Case

Asia Renal Care

Presents a business plan for a start-up company focused on building a network of high-quality dialysis centers in the Asia-Pacific region. Includes a detailed financial forecast. An executable spreadsheet is available by contacting HBSP Customer Service at... View Details

Keywords: Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Startups; Financial Strategy; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Asia

05 Dec 2012
What Do You Think?

Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?

identify fairly reliable predictions from the guesses." Others identified people as the weak point in the process. Adam Hartung commented that " everyone should be evaluating trends and making forecasts they use to guide... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

24 Sep 2014
Op-Ed

We Need a Miracle. New Nuclear Might Provide it.

installed in volume there in five to ten years. The EIA/IEA forecasts tell us, however, that the Chinese do not see miracles that can beat coal or capture coal's CO2 emissions in their energy future. We need an energy miracle before the... View Details

Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy; Utilities

11 Dec 2007
First Look

First Look: December 11, 2007

Working PapersThe Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

08 Jul 2013
Research & Ideas

Everything Must Go: A Strategy for Store Liquidation

generally seen at the start of a liquidation event. With the length of a store liquidation event constrained by law and various lease agreements, making the most of the time a store is open and accurately forecasting demand is another... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Retail

06 Feb 2006
What Do You Think?

Should CEOs of Public Companies Offer Earnings Guidance?

forecast dispersion increases and forecast accuracy decreases." For those wishing the full story, read "Is Silence Golden? An Empirical Analysis of Firms that Stop Giving Quarterly Earnings... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Financial Services

18 May 2010
First Look

First Look: May 18

forecast characteristic-related stock returns. For example, we show that large firms underperform following years when issuing firms are large relative to repurchasing firms. Our approach is useful for View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

19 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

October 2007
Journal Article

Psychosocial Development and Leader Performance of Military Officer Cadets

By: Scott Snook and Paul T. Bartone

Efforts to educate and develop future military officers aim to produce highly competent, ethical and effective leaders to serve the nation. But while there is general agreement about desired outcomes, the underlying developmental processes associated with these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership Development; Performance Evaluation; Personal Development and Career; Social Psychology

August 2016
Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John

Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details

Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction

June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
Case

Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

By: Thomas R. Piper

Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details

Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting

July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction

May 2017
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product; Product Launch; Marketing

March 2013
Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention

Read Now

September 1998
Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth

Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy

April 2005
Case

Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron

Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States