Publications
Publications
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- Faculty Publications (967)
- 2008
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins
Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details
- March 2008
- Case
Cambrian House
By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee
Cambrian House builds internet-based products and services by relying entirely on its user community for all aspects of its innovation and new product development process. Users suggest ideas for new products and services and also participate in a monthly voting... View Details
- 2008
- Working Paper
Exploring the Duality between Product and Organizational Architectures: A Test of the Mirroring Hypothesis
By: Alan D. MacCormack, John Rusnak and Carliss Y. Baldwin
A variety of academic studies argue that a relationship exists between the structure of an organization and the design of the products that this organization produces. Specifically, products tend to "mirror" the architectures of the organizations in which they are... View Details
- March 2008 (Revised August 2008)
- Supplement
Medtronic Vision 2010 (CW)
By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Zeitler
- 2008
- Working Paper
Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis
By: P. Tufano, Nick Maynard and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve
This paper reports on a small-scale survey of the potential American demand for prize-linked savings accounts, an account that awards prizes as part of the saving product's return. In October 2006, Centra Credit Union launched a prize-linked savings pilot. As part of... View Details
- January 2008
- Background Note
Equity Options
By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details
- January 2008
- Background Note
Index Options
By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
The goal of this simulation is to understand the patterns in index option prices that are not predicted by the Black-Scholes model. In particular, the simulation focuses on two properties of options prices. First, at-the-money implied volatilities from index options... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Stock Options; Investment; Price; Profit; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
- 2008
- Working Paper
Catering through Nominal Share Prices
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering... View Details
- 2007
- Working Paper
The Impact of Component Modularity on Design Evolution: Evidence from the Software Industry
By: Alan MacCormack, John Rusnak and Carliss Y. Baldwin
Much academic work asserts a relationship between the design of a complex system and the manner in which this system evolves over time. In particular, designs which are modular in nature are argued to be more "evolvable," in that these designs facilitate making... View Details
- December 2007
- Article
The Malleability of Environmentalism
By: Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni, Min Li, Leigh L. Thompson and Max Bazerman
In this paper, we predict and find that self-perceptions of environmentalism are changed by subtle manipulations of context and, in turn, affect environmental behavior. In Study 1, we found that people exhibit greater positive assessments of their environmental... View Details
- 2007
- Working Paper
Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
- 2007
- Working Paper
The Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization
Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the largest private economic forecasting agency in the period and published a great range of economic statistics in his weekly newsletters. As... View Details
- October 2007 (Revised January 2009)
- Background Note
Analyzing Relative Costs
By: Hanna Halaburda and Jan W. Rivkin
Introduces students to the technique of relative cost analysis, a core technique of strategists. Among the intricate quantitative analyses that strategists undertake, relative cost analysis may be the most common. The goal of a relative cost analysis is simply to... View Details
- October 2007 (Revised February 2008)
- Module Note
Evaluating M&A Deals: Introduction to the Deal NPV
Introduces a framework for evaluating mergers and acquisitions. Assumes that the criterion of a good deal is that it creates value for shareholders; i.e., has a positive deal NPV. Looks at the deal NPV from both the buyer's and seller's point of view. Explains how a... View Details
- Article
Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games
By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron
- October 2007
- Article
Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details
- September 2007
- Case
Dice-K: The Hundred (Plus) Million Dollar Man
Describes the efforts made by the Boston Red Sox to sign superstar Japanese pitcher Daisuke (Dice-K) Matsuzaka within the context of the team's attempts to keep pace with longtime rival, the New York Yankees. In late 2006, Dice-K is viewed as the prize of the free... View Details
- fall 2007
- Article
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
- Article
Gross National Happiness As an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
The Easterlin Paradox refers to the fact that happiness data are typically stationary in spite of considerable increases in income. This amounts to a rejection of the hypothesis that current income is the only argument in the utility function. We find that the... View Details