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  • All HBS Web  (1,278)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (803)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (1,278)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (803)
← Page 36 of 1,278 Results →
  • August 1999
  • Article

Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman
Keywords: Investment; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction
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Moore, D. A., T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox, and M. H. Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 2 (August 1999): 95–114.
  • November 1989 (Revised March 1992)
  • Background Note

Concept Testing

By: Robert J. Dolan
Describes concept testing products. Presents guidelines for effective design, execution, and interpretation of test procedures. Discusses limitations of these techniques and sets out the situations for which they are appropriate. View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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Dolan, Robert J. "Concept Testing." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-063, November 1989. (Revised March 1992.)
  • 28 Oct 2024
  • Op-Ed

Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.

asked, if each group voted like they did in the last election, who would win the next one? “Our analysis of data combining voters’ opinions with party platforms showed that where voters lead, parties tend to follow.” It turns out that this kind of View Details
Keywords: by Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro
  • 01 Apr 1998
  • News

Short Takes

Be Flexible In today's competitive and volatile business environment, depending on forecasting as the basis for planning and strategy has become a particularly risky way to operate. Especially vulnerable are manufacturing projects that... View Details
Keywords: Garry Emmons and Caroline Chauncey
  • May 2006
  • Article

Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models

By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Customers
Citation
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Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
  • 01 Mar 2004
  • News

The Weather Channel Forecast: Challenges Ahead

avoided asking cable operators for higher subscriber fees, currently about nine cents per household per month. Instead, it is looking to boost advertising revenue. Early this year, it began rolling out new computerized ad targeting technology that displays products... View Details
Keywords: Broadcasting (except Internet); Information
  • 24 Jan 2012
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections

the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to successfully manage risk in... View Details
  • 07 May 2019
  • News

How Sonja Hoel Perkins Saved John McAfee from an Especially Bad Deal

Its forecasted revenue growth rate is more than 90 percent, and its pre-tax margins run between 80 and 90 percent of sales. The problem is that John is seriously considering selling McAfee to Symantec.” That didn’t happen, according to... View Details
  • 01 Sep 2010
  • News

Faculty Books

offerings, and fatter profit margins. Featuring case studies from around the world, this book shows how to mine sales data to identify “home-run” products, reinvent forecasting and pricing strategies, and extract maximum value from... View Details
Keywords: Retail Trade; Water Transportation; Transportation
  • April 2010
  • Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers
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Gourville, John T. "Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 510-113, April 2010.
  • 28 May 2013
  • Research & Ideas

Can LEGO Snap Together a Future in Asia?

Both the managers and the students had to consider areas of potential risk for LEGO in Asia, including: Uncertainty of market growth forecasts. LEGO senior director John Kelley argues in the case that to supply the most optimistic sales View Details
Keywords: by Kim Girard; Entertainment & Recreation
  • 07 Jun 2019
  • Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin
  • 25 Feb 2015
  • Lessons from the Classroom

Scholars and Students Unpack the Digital Business Revolution

hedge fund, an Amazon employee focused on retail data, and a forecaster at General Electric," says HBS David Sarnoff Professor of Business Administration Marco Iansiti, who serves as faculty chair of the initiative and head of the... View Details
Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Education; Technology
  • 06 May 2015
  • What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

individuals. All forecasting is a case in point. When the application becomes personal, it raises many questions that will have to be addressed. In this case, should we be careful what we wish for? What do you think? Original Article In... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 12 Jul 2010
  • Research & Ideas

Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide

Demand With total revenue likely to fluctuate much more than in the past, managers must be ready to take anticipatory action. Consequently, they should improve their ability to forecast aggregate demand. Supply chains during the last few... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Retail; Auto
  • 01 Dec 2014
  • News

These Walls Can Talk

that is forecasted to grow to almost $39 billion in the next five years. Shortly after Liang joined SmartThings, Samsung purchased the two-year-old company for a rumored $200 million. SmartThings sells a hardware hub to network your... View Details
Keywords: April White
  • 23 Oct 2019
  • News

Exploring Big Issues at the Intersection of Business and Society

Professor Joseph Fuller looked beyond dystopian forecasts to explore how ever-evolving technology has the potential to improve the quality of work lives, the earnings of most workers, and company productivity. Viewpoints exposed students... View Details
Keywords: Educational Innovation
  • 28 May 2019
  • News

Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble

hosted an HBS Club of New York panel discussion on cryptocurrencies earlier this year, and she’s here to help us forecast the future of digital dough. “People who got burned when the price of bitcoin crashed are now starting to do more... View Details
Keywords: Dan Morrell
  • February 2021
  • Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details
Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning
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Toffel, Michael, and Natalie Epstein. Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models. Harvard Business School Tutorial 621-706, February 2021. (Click here to access this tutorial.)
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