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  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
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    • Research  (1,050)
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  • Faculty Publications  (802)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (802)
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  • Fast Answer

Economic reports

Forecasting Service (Economist Intelligence Unit) U.S. Economy at a Glance (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)) See also Survey of Current... View Details
  • May 2006
  • Article

Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models

By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Customers
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Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
  • 08 Jun 2009
  • Research & Ideas

The Return of the Salesman

in an economy like this, such as car dealerships, for instance, which have closed across the country. And, of course, customers are likely to negotiate for better terms. Q: What are you working on now? A: I'm writing a history of the beginnings of the economic View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Retail
  • Web

Fabrizio Serafini | MBA

efficiency and improve output through technological advancements was a revelation. Later, as an analyst in the energy commodities industry, I delved into the world of predictive modeling. This experience taught me the importance of utilizing technological tools to... View Details
  • 07 Jun 2019
  • Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin
  • 1995
  • Chapter

Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability

By: S. B. White, M. H. Bazerman and M. A. Neale
Keywords: Negotiation; Outcome or Result; Forecasting and Prediction
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White, S. B., M. H. Bazerman, and M. A. Neale. "Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability." In Research on Negotiation in Organizations, edited by R. J. Bies, R. Lewicki, and B. Sheppard. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1995.
  • February 2013
  • Article

Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews

By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino
Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such... View Details
Keywords: Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction; Research
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Simonsohn, U., and F. Gino. "Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews." Psychological Science 24, no. 2 (February 2013): 219–224.
  • November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
  • Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
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Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Sampling and Statistical Inference." Harvard Business School Background Note 191-092, November 1990. (Revised August 1996.)
  • June 1999
  • Article

Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

By: F. Frei and P. Harker
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory
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Frei, F., and P. Harker. "Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA." Journal of Productivity Analysis 11, no. 3 (June 1999): 275–300.
  • May 1990
  • Background Note

Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide

By: Robert J. Dolan
Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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Dolan, Robert J. "Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-059, May 1990.
  • Article

Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Special Issue on Behavioral Game Theory. Economic Theory 33, no. 1 (October 2007): 29–51.
  • 17 Apr 2020
  • News

Decreasing the Wealth Gap

Ray Dalio Ray Dalio As founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio (MBA 1973) is well known for his ability to forecast the future. Dalio—whose foundation has committed millions of dollars to improving... View Details
  • 28 Oct 2024
  • Op-Ed

Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.

asked, if each group voted like they did in the last election, who would win the next one? “Our analysis of data combining voters’ opinions with party platforms showed that where voters lead, parties tend to follow.” It turns out that this kind of View Details
Keywords: by Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro
  • 12 Jul 2010
  • Research & Ideas

Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide

Demand With total revenue likely to fluctuate much more than in the past, managers must be ready to take anticipatory action. Consequently, they should improve their ability to forecast aggregate demand. Supply chains during the last few... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Retail; Auto
  • 06 May 2015
  • What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

individuals. All forecasting is a case in point. When the application becomes personal, it raises many questions that will have to be addressed. In this case, should we be careful what we wish for? What do you think? Original Article In... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 01 Dec 2014
  • News

These Walls Can Talk

that is forecasted to grow to almost $39 billion in the next five years. Shortly after Liang joined SmartThings, Samsung purchased the two-year-old company for a rumored $200 million. SmartThings sells a hardware hub to network your... View Details
Keywords: April White
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence

By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details
Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction
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Graeber, Thomas, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-046, January 2024.
  • Editorial

The Power of Precise Predictions

By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic
Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics
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Tetlock, Philip E., and J. Peter Scoblic. "The Power of Precise Predictions." New York Times (October 4, 2015), SR10.
  • 2011
  • Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser
One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details
Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking
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Wheatley, Thalia, and Christine E. Looser. "Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will." Chap. 13 in Conscious Will and Responsibility: A Tribute to Benjamin Libet, edited by Walter Sinnott-Armstrong and Lynn Nadel, 146–158. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011.
  • March 1996
  • Case

African Communications Group

Describes the opportunities that confront the African Communications Group, an entrepreneurial organization that plans to introduce a wireless pay-phone system in Tanzania. Provides a foundation for the analysis of value creation and of value capture. The possibility... View Details
Keywords: Value Creation; Competition; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry; Tanzania
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McGahan, Anita M., and Dale Coxe. "African Communications Group." Harvard Business School Case 796-128, March 1996.
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