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  • 01 Jan 1977
  • Conference Presentation

Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data

By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Research; Business and Government Relations; Energy Industry
Related
  • 1989
  • Chapter

The Future Evolution of the Central Office Switching Industry

By: Jerry A. Hausman and Elon Kohlberg
Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Telecommunications Industry
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  • 01 Dec 1999
  • News

Water, Water Everywhere

course, weather patterns. How those factors played out, she recalled, "determined whether we got to buy our clothes or make our clothes that year." Mark noted that she never expected to find herself again in a business where the bottom line can rise and fall with the... View Details
  • 12 Feb 2008
  • First Look

First Look: February 12, 2007

but all share a belief in the importance of understanding change over time. Publisher's site: http://www.oup.com/us/catalog/general/subject/Business/History/ The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
  • Case

Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

By: Thomas R. Piper
Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details
Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting
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  • July 2019
  • Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis
When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details
Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • May 2017
  • Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)

By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product; Product Launch; Marketing
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  • March 2013
  • Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention
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  • September 1998
  • Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth
Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy
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  • April 2005
  • Case

Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron
Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details
Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States
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  • December 1990 (Revised December 1993)
  • Supplement

Australian Paper Manufacturers (B)

By: David M. Upton and Joshua D. Margolis
Describes events that occur after the decision point in Australian Paper Manufacturers (A). With these facts and more detailed market projections, this case intensifies the long-term financial, strategic, and ethical decisions confronting the invader. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Strategy; Ethics; Pulp and Paper Industry; Australia
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  • 28 May 2013
  • Research & Ideas

Can LEGO Snap Together a Future in Asia?

Both the managers and the students had to consider areas of potential risk for LEGO in Asia, including: Uncertainty of market growth forecasts. LEGO senior director John Kelley argues in the case that to supply the most optimistic sales View Details
Keywords: by Kim Girard; Entertainment & Recreation
  • 22 Aug 2006
  • First Look

First Look: August 22, 2006

countries I study, French civil law countries had, on average, stronger creditor rights that common law countries. Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Periodical:Foresight:... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 11 Dec 2007
  • First Look

First Look: December 11, 2007

  Working PapersThe Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 2014
  • Working Paper

Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis

By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and David Dreyfus
In this paper, we test a method for visualizing and measuring software portfolio architectures and use our measures to predict the costs of architectural change. Our data is drawn from a biopharmaceutical company, comprising 407 architectural components with 1,157... View Details
Keywords: Design Structure Matrices; Software Architecture; Flexibility; Software Application Portfolio; Complexity; Applications and Software; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 18 May 2010
  • First Look

First Look: May 18

forecast characteristic-related stock returns. For example, we show that large firms underperform following years when issuing firms are large relative to repurchasing firms. Our approach is useful for View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 19 Oct 2010
  • First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • June 1998
  • Supplement

MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998

By: Carin-Isabel Knoop
Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details
Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia
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  • 13 Apr 2010
  • First Look

First Look: April 13

Interest Rates Author:Luis M. Viceira Publication:International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming) Abstract This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace