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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,278)
- News (115)
- Research (1,050)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (803)
- August 1999
- Article
Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions
By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman
Moore, D. A., T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox, and M. H. Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 2 (August 1999): 95–114.
- November 1989 (Revised March 1992)
- Background Note
Concept Testing
By: Robert J. Dolan
Describes concept testing products. Presents guidelines for effective design, execution, and interpretation of test procedures. Discusses limitations of these techniques and sets out the situations for which they are appropriate. View Details
Dolan, Robert J. "Concept Testing." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-063, November 1989. (Revised March 1992.)
- 28 Oct 2024
- Op-Ed
Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.
asked, if each group voted like they did in the last election, who would win the next one? “Our analysis of data combining voters’ opinions with party platforms showed that where voters lead, parties tend to follow.” It turns out that this kind of View Details
- 01 Apr 1998
- News
Short Takes
Be Flexible In today's competitive and volatile business environment, depending on forecasting as the basis for planning and strategy has become a particularly risky way to operate. Especially vulnerable are manufacturing projects that... View Details
Keywords: Garry Emmons and Caroline Chauncey
- May 2006
- Article
Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models
By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
- 01 Mar 2004
- News
The Weather Channel Forecast: Challenges Ahead
avoided asking cable operators for higher subscriber fees, currently about nine cents per household per month. Instead, it is looking to boost advertising revenue. Early this year, it began rolling out new computerized ad targeting technology that displays products... View Details
- 24 Jan 2012
- First Look
First Look: Jan. 24
Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- Web
Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections
the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to successfully manage risk in... View Details
- 07 May 2019
- News
How Sonja Hoel Perkins Saved John McAfee from an Especially Bad Deal
Its forecasted revenue growth rate is more than 90 percent, and its pre-tax margins run between 80 and 90 percent of sales. The problem is that John is seriously considering selling McAfee to Symantec.” That didn’t happen, according to... View Details
- 01 Sep 2010
- News
Faculty Books
offerings, and fatter profit margins. Featuring case studies from around the world, this book shows how to mine sales data to identify “home-run” products, reinvent forecasting and pricing strategies, and extract maximum value from... View Details
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
- 28 May 2013
- Research & Ideas
Can LEGO Snap Together a Future in Asia?
Both the managers and the students had to consider areas of potential risk for LEGO in Asia, including: Uncertainty of market growth forecasts. LEGO senior director John Kelley argues in the case that to supply the most optimistic sales View Details
- 07 Jun 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
- 25 Feb 2015
- Lessons from the Classroom
Scholars and Students Unpack the Digital Business Revolution
hedge fund, an Amazon employee focused on retail data, and a forecaster at General Electric," says HBS David Sarnoff Professor of Business Administration Marco Iansiti, who serves as faculty chair of the initiative and head of the... View Details
- 06 May 2015
- What Do You Think?
Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?
individuals. All forecasting is a case in point. When the application becomes personal, it raises many questions that will have to be addressed. In this case, should we be careful what we wish for? What do you think? Original Article In... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 12 Jul 2010
- Research & Ideas
Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide
Demand With total revenue likely to fluctuate much more than in the past, managers must be ready to take anticipatory action. Consequently, they should improve their ability to forecast aggregate demand. Supply chains during the last few... View Details
- 01 Dec 2014
- News
These Walls Can Talk
that is forecasted to grow to almost $39 billion in the next five years. Shortly after Liang joined SmartThings, Samsung purchased the two-year-old company for a rumored $200 million. SmartThings sells a hardware hub to network your... View Details
Keywords: April White
- 23 Oct 2019
- News
Exploring Big Issues at the Intersection of Business and Society
Professor Joseph Fuller looked beyond dystopian forecasts to explore how ever-evolving technology has the potential to improve the quality of work lives, the earnings of most workers, and company productivity. Viewpoints exposed students... View Details
Keywords: Educational Innovation
- 28 May 2019
- News
Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble
hosted an HBS Club of New York panel discussion on cryptocurrencies earlier this year, and she’s here to help us forecast the future of digital dough. “People who got burned when the price of bitcoin crashed are now starting to do more... View Details
Keywords: Dan Morrell
- February 2021
- Tutorial
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details