Publications

winter 1996
Article

The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

2023
Working Paper

'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence

By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger

Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

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Editorial

The Power of Precise Predictions

By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic

Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics

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2011
Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser

One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details

Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking

March 1996
Case

African Communications Group

Describes the opportunities that confront the African Communications Group, an entrepreneurial organization that plans to introduce a wireless pay-phone system in Tanzania. Provides a foundation for the analysis of value creation and of value capture. The possibility... View Details

Keywords: Value Creation; Competition; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry; Tanzania

December 1970 (Revised September 2006)
Case

Harmon Foods, Inc.

Prediction and shipment has been a scheduling and budgetary problem. Multiple regression is suggested as a solution. Evaluation of regression coefficients leads to better understanding of trend, seasonality, and promotion effectiveness. View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

28 May 2013
Research & Ideas

Can LEGO Snap Together a Future in Asia?

Both the managers and the students had to consider areas of potential risk for LEGO in Asia, including: Uncertainty of market growth forecasts. LEGO senior director John Kelley argues in the case that to supply the most optimistic sales View Details

Keywords: by Kim Girard; Entertainment & Recreation

2017
Working Paper

Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers

By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt

Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and... View Details

Keywords: Fund Managers; Experience and Expertise; Performance; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

Forthcoming
Article

An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces

By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton

It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing

04 May 2020
Research & Ideas

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

“Predictions are risky, especially about the future,” according to a popular expression. Still, business is inescapably about the future—that’s what managers’ decisions are about. In the current crisis, we have daily grand predictions about “new normals,” and managers... View Details

Keywords: by Frank V. Cespedes

1983
Chapter

Analyzing Competitors: Predicting Competitor Behavior and Formulating Offensive and Defensive Strategy

By: M. E. Porter

Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior

24 Jan 2012
First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

07 Jul 2009
First Look

First Look: July 7

Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts (revised) Authors:Richard Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan Abstract We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

10 May 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

Article

Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data

By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend

This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

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August 2018
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch

June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
Case

Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

By: Thomas R. Piper

Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details

Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting

July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction