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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,275)
- News (115)
- Research (1,049)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (800)
- March 2013
- Article
Misvaluing Innovation
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R&D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
- September 1998
- Article
Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria
By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth
Erev, Ido, and A. E. Roth. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria." American Economic Review 88, no. 4 (September 1998): 848–881.
- April 2005
- Case
Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron
Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details
Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and David Kiron. "Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?" Harvard Business School Case 105-067, April 2005.
- 12 Feb 2008
- First Look
First Look: February 12, 2007
but all share a belief in the importance of understanding change over time. Publisher's site: http://www.oup.com/us/catalog/general/subject/Business/History/ The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 18 May 2010
- First Look
First Look: May 18
forecast characteristic-related stock returns. For example, we show that large firms underperform following years when issuing firms are large relative to repurchasing firms. Our approach is useful for View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 19 Oct 2010
- First Look
First Look: October 19, 2010
Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 22 Aug 2006
- First Look
First Look: August 22, 2006
countries I study, French civil law countries had, on average, stronger creditor rights that common law countries. Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Periodical:Foresight:... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- Article
The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential
By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton
Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details
Kupor, Daniella, Zakary L. Tormala, and Michael I. Norton. "The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 55 (November 2014): 210–216.
- 01 Jan 1977
- Conference Presentation
Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data
By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman
- 1989
- Chapter
The Future Evolution of the Central Office Switching Industry
By: Jerry A. Hausman and Elon Kohlberg
Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Telecommunications Industry
Hausman, Jerry A., and Elon Kohlberg. "The Future Evolution of the Central Office Switching Industry." In Future Competition in Telecommunications, edited by Stephen P. Bradley and Jerry A. Hausman. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1989.
- December 1990 (Revised December 1993)
- Supplement
Australian Paper Manufacturers (B)
By: David M. Upton and Joshua D. Margolis
Describes events that occur after the decision point in Australian Paper Manufacturers (A). With these facts and more detailed market projections, this case intensifies the long-term financial, strategic, and ethical decisions confronting the invader. View Details
Upton, David M., and Joshua D. Margolis. "Australian Paper Manufacturers (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 691-043, December 1990. (Revised December 1993.)
- 2010
- Working Paper
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
- June 1998
- Supplement
MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998
By: Carin-Isabel Knoop
Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details
Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia
Knoop, Carin-Isabel. "MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998." Harvard Business School Video Supplement 898-503, June 1998.
- Web
Fabrizio Serafini | MBA
efficiency and improve output through technological advancements was a revelation. Later, as an analyst in the energy commodities industry, I delved into the world of predictive modeling. This experience taught me the importance of utilizing technological tools to... View Details
- 01 Dec 2014
- News
Making Big Data Fashionable
styles are resonating with consumers. By monitoring data such as social media chatter, shared images, and Google searches, Trendalytics can identify specific trends that a brand can then use to guide everything from the product mix to regional campaigns or to View Details
- 24 Sep 2014
- Op-Ed
We Need a Miracle. New Nuclear Might Provide it.
On September 4, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) published its 2014 International Energy Outlook. Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest World Energy Investment Outlook. Both watchdogs tell us the same story. Energy... View Details
- 13 Apr 2010
- First Look
First Look: April 13
Interest Rates Author:Luis M. Viceira Publication:International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming) Abstract This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
- Supplement
Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)
By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction
Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-026, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
- Fast Answer
Commodities Research: data and reports
color="#333333" face="Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">World Bank Publishes the Quarterly Commodity Market Outlook providing analysis and forecasts for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture,... View Details
- 2014
- Working Paper
Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis
By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and David Dreyfus
In this paper, we test a method for visualizing and measuring software portfolio architectures and use our measures to predict the costs of architectural change. Our data is drawn from a biopharmaceutical company, comprising 407 architectural components with 1,157... View Details
Keywords: Design Structure Matrices; Software Architecture; Flexibility; Software Application Portfolio; Complexity; Applications and Software; Forecasting and Prediction
Lagerstrom, Robert, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, and David Dreyfus. "Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-083, March 2014.