Publications

Find at Harvard

September 1998
Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth

Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy

Find at Harvard

April 2005
Case

Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron

Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States

Educators

12 Feb 2008
First Look

First Look: February 12, 2007

but all share a belief in the importance of understanding change over time. Publisher's site: http://www.oup.com/us/catalog/general/subject/Business/History/ The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

18 May 2010
First Look

First Look: May 18

forecast characteristic-related stock returns. For example, we show that large firms underperform following years when issuing firms are large relative to repurchasing firms. Our approach is useful for View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

19 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

22 Aug 2006
First Look

First Look: August 22, 2006

countries I study, French civil law countries had, on average, stronger creditor rights that common law countries. Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Periodical:Foresight:... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Article

The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential

By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton

Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

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01 Jan 1977
Conference Presentation

Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data

By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Research; Business and Government Relations; Energy Industry

1989
Chapter

The Future Evolution of the Central Office Switching Industry

By: Jerry A. Hausman and Elon Kohlberg

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Telecommunications Industry

December 1990 (Revised December 1993)
Supplement

Australian Paper Manufacturers (B)

By: David M. Upton and Joshua D. Margolis

Describes events that occur after the decision point in Australian Paper Manufacturers (A). With these facts and more detailed market projections, this case intensifies the long-term financial, strategic, and ethical decisions confronting the invader. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Strategy; Ethics; Pulp and Paper Industry; Australia

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

June 1998
Supplement

MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998

By: Carin-Isabel Knoop

Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details

Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia

Web

Fabrizio Serafini | MBA

efficiency and improve output through technological advancements was a revelation. Later, as an analyst in the energy commodities industry, I delved into the world of predictive modeling. This experience taught me the importance of utilizing technological tools to... View Details

01 Dec 2014
News

Making Big Data Fashionable

styles are resonating with consumers. By monitoring data such as social media chatter, shared images, and Google searches, Trendalytics can identify specific trends that a brand can then use to guide everything from the product mix to regional campaigns or to View Details

Keywords: Christine Lejeune; fashion; Market Research, Photo, Translation, Veterinary and Other Services; Professional Services

24 Sep 2014
Op-Ed

We Need a Miracle. New Nuclear Might Provide it.

On September 4, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) published its 2014 International Energy Outlook. Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest World Energy Investment Outlook. Both watchdogs tell us the same story. Energy... View Details

Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy; Utilities

13 Apr 2010
First Look

First Look: April 13

Interest Rates Author:Luis M. Viceira Publication:International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming) Abstract This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction

Fast Answer

Commodities Research: data and reports

color="#333333" face="Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif">World Bank Publishes the Quarterly Commodity Market Outlook providing analysis and forecasts for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture,... View Details

2014
Working Paper

Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis

By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and David Dreyfus

In this paper, we test a method for visualizing and measuring software portfolio architectures and use our measures to predict the costs of architectural change. Our data is drawn from a biopharmaceutical company, comprising 407 architectural components with 1,157... View Details

Keywords: Design Structure Matrices; Software Architecture; Flexibility; Software Application Portfolio; Complexity; Applications and Software; Forecasting and Prediction