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      • June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
      • Supplement

      Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

      By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin
      Keywords: Present Value; Forecasting; Expansion; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting
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      Stafford, Erik, and Joel L. Heilprin. "Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 094-025, June 2009. (Revised March 2010.)
      • June 2009
      • Article

      Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Film Entertainment; Demand and Consumers; Renting or Rental; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Management Science 55, no. 6 (June 2009): 1047–1059.
      • 2009
      • Article

      Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric

      By: Jolie M. Martin, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman and Lisa Sutherland

      Research over the last several decades indicates the failure of existing nutritional labels to substantially improve the healthiness of consumers' food and beverage choices. The difficulty for policy-makers is to encapsulate a wide body of scientific knowledge in a... View Details

      Keywords: Judgments; Food; Nutrition; Labels; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods
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      Martin, Jolie M., John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman, and Lisa Sutherland. "Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric." Journal of the American Dietetic Association 109, no. 6 (June 2009): 1088–1091.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

      By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley
      This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Globalized Economies and Regions; Multinational Firms and Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Agreements and Arrangements; Southeast Asia; United States
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      Antras, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14891, April 2009.
      • Article

      How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?

      By: Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      Ratings of corporations' environmental activities and capabilities influence billions of dollars of "socially responsible" investments as well as some consumers, activists, and potential employees. In one of the first studies to assess these ratings, we examine how... View Details
      Keywords: Governance Compliance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Performance Effectiveness; Natural Environment; Pollutants
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      Chatterji, Aaron K., David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel. "How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?" Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 18, no. 1 (Spring 2009): 125–169.
      • March 2009
      • Article

      Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices

      By: Robin Greenwood
      Firms can manipulate their stock price by limiting the ability of their investors to sell. I examine a series of corporate events in Japan in which firms actively reduced their float—the fraction of shares available to trade—for periods of one to three months, locking... View Details
      Keywords: Equity; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Trading Restrictions and Stock Prices." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 3 (March 2009): 509–539.
      • May 2009
      • Article

      Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads

      By: Victoria Ivashina
      The paper estimates the cost arising from information asymmetry between the lead bank and members of the lending syndicate. In a lending syndicate, the lead bank retains only a fraction of the loan but acts as the intermediary between the borrower and the syndicate... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Capital; Investment Portfolio; Credit; Diversification; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Ivashina, Victoria. "Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads." Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 2 (May 2009): 300–319.
      • Article

      From Wealth to Well-Being? Money Matters, but Less than People Think

      By: Lara B. Aknin, Michael I. Norton and Elizabeth W. Dunn
      While numerous studies have documented the modest (though reliable) link between household income and well-being, we examined the accuracy of laypeople's intuitions about this relationship by asking people from across the income spectrum to report their own... View Details
      Keywords: Happiness; Work-Life Balance; Satisfaction; Income; Household
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      Aknin, Lara B., Michael I. Norton, and Elizabeth W. Dunn. "From Wealth to Well-Being? Money Matters, but Less than People Think." Journal of Positive Psychology 4, no. 6 (2009): 523–527.
      • January 2009
      • Article

      Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

      By: Malcolm Baker, C. Fritz Foley and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capital markets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals. Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flows increase... View Details
      Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Valuation; Capital Markets; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Stocks; Integration
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      Baker, Malcolm, C. Fritz Foley, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 1 (January 2009): 337–369.
      • Article

      Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns." Journal of Investment Management 7, no. 1 (First Quarter 2009): 36–52.
      • 2009
      • Article

      The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

      By: Walter Friedman
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Problems and Challenges; Economics
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      Friedman, Walter. "The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting." History of Political Economy 41, no. 1 (2009).
      • December 2008
      • Article

      Style Investing and Institutional Investors

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and Melvyn Teo
      This paper explores institutional investors' trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and Melvyn Teo. "Style Investing and Institutional Investors." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, no. 4 (December 2008): 883–906. (Revised from: Equity Style Returns and Institutional Investor Flows, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 04-048, June 2004.)
      • November 2008
      • Journal Article

      Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui
      Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Yang Gui. "Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations." Journal of Financial Transformation 24 (November 2008): 123–130.
      • September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
      • Case

      Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents

      By: Elie Ofek
      Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Ofek, Elie. "Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents." Harvard Business School Case 509-028, September 2008. (Revised June 2011.)
      • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
      • Exercise

      Exercise on Estimation

      By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
      This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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      Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
      • August 2008
      • Article

      Economic Links and Predictable Returns

      By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
      This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation​.)
      • July – August 2008
      • Article

      Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
      We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
      Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
      • July–August 2008
      • Article

      Interview with a Quality Leader: Regina E. Herzlinger on Consumer-Driven Healthcare

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger
      Regina E. Herzlinger is the Nancy R. McPherson Professor of Business Administration Chair at the Harvard Business School, Cambridge, MA. She received her bachelor's degree from MIT and her doctorate from the Harvard Business School The first woman to be tenured and... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer-driven Health Care; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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      "Interview with a Quality Leader: Regina E. Herzlinger on Consumer-Driven Healthcare." Journal for Healthcare Quality 30, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 17–19.
      • April 2008
      • Case

      Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

      By: John T. Gourville
      An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
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      Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
      • 2008
      • Mimeo

      Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?

      By: Joseph Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong and Jeremy C. Stein
      This paper explores the question of whether hedge funds engage in frontrunning strategies that exploit the predictable trades of others. One potential opportunity for front-running arises when distressed mutual funds—those suffering large outflows of assets under... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Profit; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Opportunities; Asset Management; Sales
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      Chen, Joseph, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong, and Jeremy C. Stein. "Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?" 2008. Mimeo.
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