Judgment And Decision Making - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Article

Surgeons and Administrators Co-Creating Value

By: Michael Nurok, Thoralf Sundt, Robert S. Kaplan and Bruce Gewertz

Most hospitals have arms-length relationships with physicians, viewing them as people they must ‘‘manage,’’ not as potentially valuable strategic partners. But surgeons make clinical decisions every day that have great influence on both patient outcomes and hospital... View Details

Keywords: Value-based Health Care; Collaboration; Healthcare Administration; Health Care and Treatment; Management; Strategy; Value Creation

June 2013 (Revised June 2014)
Case

Valero Energy Corporation and Tight Oil

By: Richard H.K. Vietor, Eric Adamson, Aaron Byrd, Ned Chiverton, Mariko Meier and Rob Rain

Valero Energy, an incredibly successful US refiner, needs to make some decisions about tight oil. As production of light tight oil increases—from Eagle Ford, Bakken and elsewhere—Valero considers whether to add topping capacity to handle it, on top of its recent... View Details

Keywords: Petroleum; Oil ＆ Gas; Energy; Environment; Refining; Globalization; Tight Oil; Strategy; Natural Environment; Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Policy; Energy Sources; Energy Industry; United States

28 Jun 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Film Rentals and Procrastination: A Study of Intertemporal Reversals in Preferences and Intrapersonal Conflict

Keywords: by Katy Milkman, Todd Rogers & Max H. Bazerman; Entertainment & Recreation

2008
Working Paper

Embracing Commitment and Performance: CEOs and Practices Used to Manage Paradox

By: Tobias Fredberg, Michael Beer, Russell Eisenstat, Nathaniel Foote and Flemming Norrgren

We tend to assume that great leaders must make difficult choices between two or more conflicting outcomes. In an interview study with 26 CEOs of top American and European companies (incl. IKEA, Campbell Soups, Nokia, H&M), we find that instead of choosing between... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Managerial Roles; Performance; Strategy; Management Practices and Processes; Decision Choices and Conditions

01 Dec 2023
News

Alumni and Faculty Books and Podcasts

Media Publishing In The Startup Lottery, veteran entrepreneur and Inc. 500 CEO Gus Bessalel provides an insider’s view of venture-capital-backed companies. You will learn how to navigate your startup career through stories, examples,... View Details

Keywords: podcasts

2024
Article

Political Polarization and Finance

By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura

We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Governance

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2013
Chapter

Multinational Enterprises and Incomplete Institutions: The Demandingness of Minimum Moral Standards

By: Nien-he Hsieh

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) operate across countries that vary widely in their legal, political, and regulatory institutions. One question that arises is whether there are certain minimum standards that ought to guide managers in their decision making... View Details

Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Decision Making; Standards

September 2002 (Revised October 2002)
Case

Managing Knowledge and Learning at NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)

By: Dorothy A. Leonard and David Kiron

Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) faces a serious loss of knowledge--both because of the "faster, better, cheaper" mandate for Mars missions and from the retirement of key personnel. An extensive knowledge management system for NASA/JPL includes formal knowledge-capture... View Details

Keywords: Knowledge Management; Knowledge Dissemination; Leadership Development; Internet and the Web; Risk and Uncertainty; Organizational Culture; Retirement; Human Resources; Human Capital

2008
Working Paper

Opening Platforms: How, When and Why?

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann, Geoffrey Parker and Marshall Van Alstyne

Platform-mediated networks encompass several distinct types of participants, including end users, complementors, platform providers who facilitate users' access to complements, and sponsors who develop platform technologies. Each of these roles can be opened-that... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Governance Controls; Market Participation; Digital Platforms

2009
Chapter

Opening Platforms: When, How and Why?

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann, Geoffrey Parker and Marshall Van Alstyne

Platform-mediated networks encompass several distinct types of participants, including end users, complementors, platform providers who facilitate users' access to complements, and sponsors who develop platform technologies. Each of these roles can be opened-that... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Governance Controls; Market Participation; Digital Platforms

January 2014 (Revised November 2015)
Background Note

Rational Choice and Managerial Decision-Making

This note discusses Herbert Simon's notion of bounded rationality: how managers may sometimes make suboptimal choices because of their limited ability to access or process information. View Details

Keywords: Rational Choice; Bounded Rationality; Satisficing; Herbert Simon; Agenda-setting; Choice; Alternatives; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Judgments

Article

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

By: Frank V. Cespedes

The first task of crisis management is a reasonably accurate view of the current situation and how it might evolve. There are many predictions about so-called “new normal” as a result of the semi-enforced social distancing necessitated by the coronavirus. But most are... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Strategic Planning

February 2024
Article

Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation

By: Laura Alfaro, Nick Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew F. Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen

We develop an incomplete-contracts model to jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them. Integration has an option value: it gives firm owners authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve... View Details

Keywords: Boundaries; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

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2017
Working Paper

Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang

In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details

Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets

Research Summary

Sell-Side Analysts and Legacy Spinoffs

This paper investigates how well analysts do at evaluating spinoffs of legacy businesses vis-à-vis other spinoffs. Analysts appear to be far more conservative in the earnings forecasts they make for legacy businesses and their parents than they are for... View Details

June 2014
Case

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn, Kelly McNamara, Nora N. Khan and Elizabeth Legris

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal analyzes the turnaround and reconstruction of Starbucks Coffee Company from 2008 to 2014 as led by CEO and co-founder Howard Schultz. The case offers executives and students an opportunity to examine in depth how... View Details

November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

October 2004 (Revised February 2005)
Case

John Moran and the Orthopedics Industry

By: Richard G. Hamermesh

Reviews John Moran's 25-year career in the orthopedic industry and his current decision whether to start a hand and foot surgery company. View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Choices and Conditions; Personal Development and Career; Health Industry

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2011
Working Paper

Naiveté and Cynicism in Negotiations and Other Competitive Contexts

By: Chia-Jung Tsay, Lisa L. Shu and Max Bazerman

A wealth of literature documents how the common failure to think about the self-interests of others contributes to suboptimal outcomes. Yet sometimes, an excess of cynicism appears to lead us to over-think the actions of others and make negative attributions about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Negotiation; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perspective; Trust; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage

September 2017
Article

The Belief in a Favorable Future

By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton

People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others... View Details

Keywords: Social Cognition; Judgment; Prediction; Forecasting; False Consensus; Donation; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Forecasting and Prediction; Perception; Values and Beliefs; Behavior

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