Publications

February 2001
Article

The Portfolio Flows of International Investors

By: K. A. Froot, P. O'Connell and M. Seasholes

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry

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24 Sep 2014
Op-Ed

The Climate Needs Aggressive CEO Leadership

invest to reduce pipeline leaks of natural gas, given how the cost of those emissions could rise substantially if carbon were priced? From a financial perspective, answering these big and expensive questions requires knowing how to price carbon in View Details

Keywords: by Michael Toffel & Auden Schendler; Energy; Utilities

15 Sep 2016
Research & Ideas

Political Dysfunction Makes America Less Competitive

system, transportation infrastructure, and healthcare. Business leaders have grown increasingly pessimistic and aren’t expecting much of an uptick in the near future. Fifty percent of those surveyed expect US competitiveness to decline in the next three years, while... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

2010
Article

The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Are Not as Ethical as We Think We Are

By: A. E. Tenbrunsel, K. Diekmann, K A. Wade-Benzoni and Max Bazerman

This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and recollection is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Framework; Research; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias

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2011
Working Paper

The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments

By: Qiang Liu, Thomas J. Steenburgh and Sachin Gupta

Different instruments are relevant for different marketing objectives (category demand expansion or market share stealing). To help brand managers make informed marketing mix decisions, it is essential that marketing mix models appropriately measure the different... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods

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October 2002 (Revised January 2013)
Case

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts

By: Paul M. Healy

Krispy Kreme is a rapidly growing firm with a business model that has excited Wall Street. View Details

Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Reporting; Performance Evaluation; Business Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)

January 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Case

Ford Motor Company's Value Enhancement Plan

By: Andre F. Perold

In April 2000, Ford Motor Co. announced a shareholder Value Enhancement Plan (VEP) to significantly recapitalize the firm's ownership structure. Ford had accumulated $23 billion in cash reserves and under the VEP would return as much as $10 billion of this cash to... View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Structure; Cash; Financial Liquidity; Policy; Business and Shareholder Relations; Value; Auto Industry

2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

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2010
Working Paper

A New Model of Leadership (PDF File of Keynote Slides)

By: Michael C. Jensen and Allan L. Scherr

In this paper we provide a new definition of leadership that gives organizations and individuals access to new power, performance and accomplishment. In our model leadership consists of four critical elements The creation of a vision for the future that represents a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Dissemination; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; System

24 Jan 2012
First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Feb 2008
First Look

First Look: February 5, 2008

No abstract is available at this time. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-057.pdf Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

12 Feb 2013
First Look

First Look: Feb. 12

strategy-i.e., declare plans to pursue the new product opportunity even when it may have no development intentions-when its market forecasting capabilities are weak and the demand-side benefits from preannouncing are small. By contrast,... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

25 Nov 2008
First Look

First Look: November 25, 2008

introducing retail inventory management, including cost optimization, service-level criteria, and forecasting in single and multiproduct settings. The owner of a single-location paper and paper products store considers the implications of... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Forthcoming
Article

An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces

By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton

It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing

06 Sep 2022
Research & Ideas

Curbing an Unlikely Culprit of Rising Drug Prices: Pharmaceutical Donations

Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to constrain price growth of existing drugs, cap seniors’ out-of-pocket drug spending, and eventually enable drug price negotiations, Dafny says. While “it's a little too soon to forecast the impact of... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand; Insurance; Health; Pharmaceutical

19 Feb 2007
Research & Ideas

Inexperienced Investors and Market Bubbles

managers over-invested in technology stocks. Why are the less-experienced managers drawn to technology? A: Our hypothesis is that younger managers, and inexperienced investors more generally, are more likely to extrapolate past price movements when forming their View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

December 1998 (Revised March 1999)
Case

Guangdong Nowada Group, The

By: Ray A. Goldberg, Carin-Isabel Knoop and Anthony St. George

In late 1998, 38-year-old He Boquan, CEO of the Guangdong Nowada Group, a health beverage producer, needs to decide how to fund his company's growth and ambition to become China's number one domestic health beverage producer by 2002. A consultants study revealed that... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Foreign Direct Investment; Growth and Development; Leadership Style; Management Skills; Negotiation Offer; Competitive Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; China