Publications

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November 1989 (Revised March 1992)
Background Note

Concept Testing

By: Robert J. Dolan

Describes concept testing products. Presents guidelines for effective design, execution, and interpretation of test procedures. Discusses limitations of these techniques and sets out the situations for which they are appropriate. View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

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October 2023
Article

Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA

By: Matthew S. Johnson, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel

We study how a regulator can best target inspections. Our case study is a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) program that randomly allocated some inspections. On average, each inspection averted 2.4 serious injuries (9%) over the next five years.... View Details

Keywords: Safety Regulations; Regulations; Regulatory Enforcement; Machine Learning Models; Safety; Operations; Service Operations; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Decisions; United States

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June 2016 (Revised May 2017)
Case

Searching for a New CEO: TiVo 2016

By: David B. Yoffie

In 2015, TiVo initiated a search for a new CEO. This case provides a profile of the CEO search and background on the company. View Details

Keywords: Technological Change; Succession Planning; Information Technology; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Management Succession; Forecasting and Prediction; Change; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry

July 2006 (Revised May 2007)
Case

Dubailand: Destination Dubai

Under the leadership of the al-Maktoum family, Dubai, a member of the United Arab Emirates, invested heavily in its infrastructure to reduce national dependence on oil and gas reserves. As an established international destination for shipping, business initiatives, and... View Details

Keywords: Geographic Location; Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Projects; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Dubai

October 1998 (Revised August 2001)
Teaching Note

Intel Corporation: 1968-1997 TN

By: Gary P. Pisano

Teaching Note for (9-797-137). View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Competitive Advantage; Forecasting and Prediction; Semiconductor Industry

November 2010 (Revised January 2011)
Teaching Note

Assessing a Company's Future Financial Health (TN)

By: Thomas R. Piper

Teaching Note for 911412. View Details

Keywords: Financial Condition; Forecasting and Prediction

05 Dec 2012
What Do You Think?

Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?

identify fairly reliable predictions from the guesses." Others identified people as the weak point in the process. Adam Hartung commented that " everyone should be evaluating trends and making forecasts they use to guide... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

24 Sep 2014
Op-Ed

We Need a Miracle. New Nuclear Might Provide it.

installed in volume there in five to ten years. The EIA/IEA forecasts tell us, however, that the Chinese do not see miracles that can beat coal or capture coal's CO2 emissions in their energy future. We need an energy miracle before the... View Details

Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy; Utilities

24 Jan 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research: January 24, 2017

earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Mar 2013
First Look

First Look: March 5

issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs faced... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

October 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Background Note

Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior

By: Gerald Zaltman, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun and Fred W Mast PHD

An important distinction is drawn in psychology between explicit and implicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge refers to consciously held beliefs about an individual or object that often draws on the remembering of experiences in the past. In contrast, implicit knowledge... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Knowledge Sharing; Consumer Behavior; Opportunities; Cognition and Thinking

September 2004
Article

Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Voting; Conflict of Interests; Capital; Government and Politics; Wages; Saving; Forecasting and Prediction

April 1991 (Revised October 1993)
Case

Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)

By: David J. Collis

Describes the pet food industry in the mid-eighties prior to the breakout of a major competitive battle as manufacturers fight for share. Illustrates how when there are benefits to play in multiple markets, competitors will take action in one market to preserve their... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Markets; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership Stake; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry

October 2017 (Revised April 2018)
Case

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)

By: Michael W. Toffel, Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Matthew S. Johnson

Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How much inventory do I need? How intensively should I monitor my suppliers? Which potential customers will be most responsive to a particular marketing campaign? Which job candidates should I... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Policy Implementation; Empirical Research; Inspection; Occupational Safety; Occupational Health; Regulation; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Safety; Manufacturing Industry; Construction Industry; United States

October 2012
Case

Dispensers of California, Inc.

By: David A. Wilson and David Hawkins

An investor seeking capital must prepare projected financial statements for a new business. View Details

Keywords: Financial Statement Preparation; Accounting Process; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Financial Statements; Business Startups; Capital; California

January 2000 (Revised February 2007)
Case

Asia Renal Care

Presents a business plan for a start-up company focused on building a network of high-quality dialysis centers in the Asia-Pacific region. Includes a detailed financial forecast. An executable spreadsheet is available by contacting HBSP Customer Service at... View Details

Keywords: Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Startups; Financial Strategy; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Asia