Decisions - Publications - Faculty & Research

27 Feb 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

Keywords: by Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen; Motion Pictures & Video

February 1996 (Revised November 1996)
Case

Viacom, Inc.: Carpe Diem

By: Joseph L. Bower and Thomas R. Eisenmann

Viacom has reached a powerful position in the global entertainment industry through skillful and very bold acquisitions. Now its further expansion is challenged by the moves of Rupert Murdock's News Corp. Different businesses within Viacom have contradictory positions... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Entertainment; Global Strategy; Management; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Expansion; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

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February 2004 (Revised April 2005)
Exercise

Necessary Evils: A Diagnostic Exercise

By: Joshua D. Margolis and Andrew Molinsky

Central to the work of leaders and professionals are tasks that entail harming one party to deliver benefits or advance valued and worthy goals. Sometimes a person must, as part of his or her job, perform an act that causes emotional, material, or physical harm to... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; Problems and Challenges; Ethics; Management Skills

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15 Feb 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Learning from My Success and From Others’ Failure: Evidence from Minimally Invasive Cardiac Surgery

Keywords: by KC Diwas, Bradley R. Staats & Francesca Gino; Health

02 Jun 2003
Research & Ideas

Stuck in Gear: Why Managers Don’t Act

For want of a better idea, many companies often rely on a tried-and-true success formula. And why not? What worked before to pull their organization into profitability will surely work again, right? Not so, according to Donald Sull, assistant professor at Harvard... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

1999
Chapter

How Financial Firms Decide on Technology

By: Lorin M. Hitt, Frances X. Frei and Patrick T. Harker

Keywords: Financial Institutions; Decision Making; Technology; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry

Citation

2018
Working Paper

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

By: Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck

Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile forecasts of transfer passengers’ connection times. Sampling from the distribution of individual passengers’ connection times, the system also produces... View Details

Keywords: Quantile Forecasts; Regression Tree; Copula; Passenger Flow Management; Data-driven Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

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Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler

We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details

Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction

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Article

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer

When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully.... View Details

Keywords: Forecast; Forecasting and Prediction

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2012
Chapter

Citizens' Perceptions and the Disconnect Between Economics and Regulatory Policy

By: Jonathan Baron, William T. McEnroe and Christopher Poliquin

Economic theory is clear about the advantages and disadvantages of various ways of regulating negative externalities, such as command and control, cap and trade, taxation, subsidies, and tort law. Yet public policy rarely follows the recommendations that follow from... View Details

Keywords: Regulation; Decision Making; Government and Politics; United States

Citation

July–August 1995
Article

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and M. C. Moldoveanu

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

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October 2006 (Revised May 2007)
Background Note

Ethics: A Basic Framework

By: Lynn S. Paine

Provides a basic framework for ethical analysis of management decisions, policies, and plans of action. View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Planning; Decision Making; Framework

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September 2003 (Revised September 2004)
Case

Grafica, Inc.: Winning the New Jersey Lottery (A)

Debra Taeschler, CEO of Grafica, is considering how to structure her agency's bid for the New Jersey Lottery account. The Lottery is facing declining sales in all major categories and plans to slash its 1999 marketing budget by 32%. Taeschler is debating whether to... View Details

Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Decision Making; Public Administration Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; New Jersey

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