Forecasting And Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

Filter Results: (3,297)

Filter Results: (3,297)

Show Results For

← Page 33 of 3,297 Results →

June 2005
Article

Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Developing Countries and Economies; Inflation and Deflation

Find at Harvard

2001
Working Paper

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

September 2024
Case

Nvidia, Inc. in 2024 and the Future of AI

By: David B. Yoffie and Sarah von Bargen

Nvidia was one of the most successful companies in the world, reaching $3.4 trillion in valuation on June 18th, 2024. While Microsoft and Apple quickly recaptured the value crown, some analysts forecasted that Nvidia was so strongly positioned that it might become the... View Details

Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Price; Technological Innovation; Competition; Vertical Integration; Valuation; Technology Industry

11 May 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field

Keywords: by Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth

March 2021
Article

Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment

By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details

Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments

Find at Harvard

Register to Read

February 2017 (Revised February 2018)
Case

Frank Baker: Siris Capital Group and Titan Systems

By: Steven Rogers and Derrick Collins

Private equity firm, Siris Capital Group, must decide if they should raise their offer to take Titan Telecom private by acquiring its publicly traded stock. Siris’ decision to pay a premium for Titan must be made in the context of their unique (and somewhat complex)... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Leveraged Buyouts; Mergers and Acquisitions; Private Equity; Mobile Technology; Financial Services Industry; Communications Industry; Telecommunications Industry; United States

Article

Productivity Orientation and the Consumption of Collectable Experiences

By: Anat Keinan and Ran Kivetz

This research examines why consumers desire unusual and novel consumption experiences and voluntarily choose leisure activities, vacations, and celebrations that are predicted to be less pleasurable. For example, consumers sometimes choose to stay at freezing ice... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Innovation and Invention; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Performance Productivity

Find at Harvard

2016
Book

Competing Against Luck: The Story of Innovation and Customer Choice

By: Clayton M. Christensen, Taddy Hall, Karen Dillon and David S. Duncan

The foremost authority on innovation and growth presents a path-breaking book every company needs to transform innovation from a game of chance to one in which they develop products and services that customers want to buy and are willing to purchase at a premium price.... View Details

Keywords: Disruptive Innovation; Consumer Behavior

Find at Harvard

2009
Article

Compelled to Help: Effects of Direct and Indirect Exchange on Perceived Obligation in Professional Networks

By: Roy Y.J. Chua, Billian Sullivan and Michael W. Morris

This research examines felt obligation to help others in employees' and managers' professional networks using a social exchange perspective. We hypothesize that obligation toward others would follow the norms of both direct and indirect reciprocity. Direct reciprocity... View Details

Keywords: Perspective; Conflict of Interests; Research; Surveys; Networks; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Issues

Find at Harvard

2025
Working Paper

Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science

By: Fabio Bertolotti, Kyle R. Myers and Wei Yang Tham

We develop a method to estimate producers’ productivity beliefs in settings where output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate allocative efficiency in the market for science. Our model of researchers’ labor supply shows that their... View Details

Keywords: Performance Productivity; Perception; Research

March 2011
Module Note

Quantitative Analysis of Competitive Position: Customer Demand and Willingness to Pay

By: David J. Collis

This note is designed to provide strategists with tools to perform two critical customer-related analyses: determining willingness to pay — the estimation of how much a given customer would be willing to pay for a particular product or service; and demand estimation —... View Details

Keywords: Price; Demand and Consumers; Competitive Advantage; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Market Participation; Segmentation

November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

June 2025
Article

Gender Diversity Performance and Voluntary Disclosure: Mind the (Gender Pay) Gap

By: June Huang and Shirley Lu

We study whether voluntary gender diversity disclosure is predictive of gender diversity performance. Exploiting a mandate in the United Kingdom that requires firms to disclose 2017 gender pay gap ("GPG") data for the first time, we find that providing voluntary gender... View Details

Keywords: Pay Gap; Diversity; Gender; Wages; Reputation; Corporate Disclosure; United Kingdom

Register to Read

"Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment"

We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details

Fortune Tellers

The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who... View Details

2010
Working Paper

The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence and Exceptions

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

The mirroring hypothesis predicts that the organizational patterns of a development project (e.g. communication links, geographic collocation, team and firm co-membership) will correspond to the technical patterns of dependency in the system under development. Scholars... View Details

Keywords: Infrastructure; Product Design; Organizational Design; Practice; Groups and Teams; Social and Collaborative Networks; Information Technology

Research Summary

How and When Does Hierarchy Emerge in Firms?

Despite understanding that formal structure within firms is crucial for maintaining coordination and control as young firms grow, relatively little is systematically known about the initial formation of hierarchy in firms. By exploiting access to a dataset of all... View Details

Keywords: Organization Design; Start-up Growth; Startup Management; Organizational Design; Entrepreneurship; Brazil

December 2014
Article

Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments

By: Jennifer Brown and Dylan B. Minor

We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future... View Details

Keywords: Elimination Tournament; Dynamic Contest; Contest Design; Effort Choice; Betting Markets; Competitive Advantage; Game Theory

Find at Harvard

A Neurocomputational Model of Altruism and Its Implications

In this paper, we propose a neurocomputational model of altruistic choice and test it using behavioral and fMRI data from a task in which subjects make choices between real monetary prizes for themselves and another. Our model captures key patterns of choice,... View Details

October 2017 (Revised November 2017)
Case

NYC311

By: Constantine E. Kontokosta, Mitchell Weiss, Christine Snively and Sarah Gulick

Joe Morrisroe, executive director for NYC311, had some gut instincts but no definitive answer to the question he was just asked by one of the mayor’s deputies: “Are some communities being underserved by 311? How do we know we are hearing from the right people?” Founded... View Details

←
33
34
…
164
165
→