Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,935)
- Faculty Publications (978)
- 2010
- Working Paper
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
- October 2010
- Article
Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity
This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture-in the sense of shared beliefs and values in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared... View Details
- 2010
- Working Paper
Decoding Inside Information
By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details
- October 2010
- Article
Preferring Balanced vs. Advantageous Peace Agreements: A Study of Israeli Attitudes Towards a Two-State Solution
By: Deepak Malhotra and Jeremy Ginges
The paper extends research on fixed-pie perceptions by suggesting that disputants may prefer proposals that are perceived to be equally attractive to both parties (i.e., balanced) rather than one-sided, because balanced agreements are seen as more likely to be... View Details
- 2010
- Working Paper
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
- September 2010
- Case
Quanta Research Institute: Rainforest or Hothouse?
By: Willy C. Shih, Jyun-Cheng Wang and Ho Howard Yu
Barry Lam, the CEO and founder of Quanta Computer (the largest notebook computer manufacturer worldwide), has recognized for many years that he had to transform the company to decrease its dependence on producing commodity hardware for other global brands and move the... View Details
- September 2010
- Article
Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details
- 2010
- Other Unpublished Work
International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth
By: Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych
The key in the investigation of "where" and "why" capital flows, relative to the neoclassical benchmark, is how we measure these flows. The macro literature has been using three main yardsticks: the current account balance, returns to capital, and the volume of net... View Details
- 2010
- Working Paper
Reversing the Queue: Performance, Legitimacy, and Minority Hiring
By: Andrew Hill and David A. Thomas
Studies of minority hiring have found that poor-performing firms or firms in highly competitive contexts are more likely to hire minority candidates. However, most work has examined hiring for entry and mid-level positions, not senior management. Management positions... View Details
- 2016
- Working Paper
The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand
By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman
To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details
- August 2010
- Case
Flash Memory, Inc.
By: William E. Fruhan and Craig Stephenson
The CFO of Flash Memory, Inc. prepares the company's investing and financing plans for the next three years. Flash Memory is a small firm that specializes in the design and manufacture of solid state drives (SSDs) and memory modules for the computer and electronics... View Details
- August 2010
- Teaching Note
Flash Memory, Inc. (Brief Case)
By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson
Teaching Note for 4230. View Details
- August 2010
- Supplement
Flash Memory, Inc., Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson
- 2010
- Working Paper
Employee Selection as a Control System
By: Dennis Campbell
Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study... View Details
- July 2010
- Case
Monmouth, Inc.
By: Thomas R. Piper and Heide Abelli
The management of Monmouth Inc. is considering whether to acquire the Robertson Tool Company and the value and form that the acquisition should take. Value can be assessed using a variety of approaches including a DCF with WACC analysis, impact on EPS and market... View Details
- July 2010
- Teaching Note
Monmouth, Inc. (Brief Case)
By: Thomas R. Piper and Heide Abelli
Teaching Note for 4226. View Details
- July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
- Background Note
Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis
By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details
- June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
- Case
Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit?
By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi
Classic Knitwear manufactures and distributes casual apparel, either unbranded or under a private-label brand name. Partly because Classic has no brand recognition with consumers, gross margins are low. To improve margins, the company considers partnering via a... View Details
Keywords: Market Research; Forecasting; Consumer Marketing; New Product Marketing; Product Lines; Merchandising; Branding; Demand and Consumers; Partners and Partnerships; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Manufacturing Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry
- June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
- Teaching Note
Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit? (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi
Teaching Note for 4217. View Details
- 2011
- Working Paper
Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details