Forecasting And Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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January 2018
Article

Big Data and Big Cities: The Promises and Limitations of Improved Measures of Urban Life

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Scott Duke Kominers, Michael Luca and Nikhil Naik

New, "big" data sources allow measurement of city characteristics and outcome variables at higher frequencies and finer geographic scales than ever before. However, big data will not solve large urban social science questions on its own. Big data has the most value for... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Urban Scope; City

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August 2003
Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets

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02 Aug 2010
News

Four Things Groups Want that Leaders Can't Give — and One They Can

2021
Working Paper

Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang

We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details

Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making

2018
Working Paper

Black Out-Migration and Southern Political Realignment

By: Leah Boustan and Marco Tabellini

Can emigration from less democratic and economically less developed areas induce political and economic change? We study this question in the context of the second Great Migration of African Americans (1940–1970), when more than 4 million blacks left the U.S. South and... View Details

Keywords: Great Migration; Immigration; Race; Government and Politics; Economics; United States

July 2015
Article

Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk

By: Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey and Abbie Smith

We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Crime and Corruption; Governance Compliance; Financial Reporting; Organizational Culture

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December 1989
Article

On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito

This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing

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June 2013
Teaching Note

Bonne Chance

By: Jim Sharpe and Ian Cornell

This is a teaching note related to HBS Case 813049. View Details

Keywords: Turnaround; Turnarounds; Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Reorganization; Cash Flow; Cash; Forecasting; Bank Debt; Distressed Debt; Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Retail Industry; United States

2021
Working Paper

An Empirical Study of Time Allotment and Delays in E-commerce Delivery

By: M. Balakrishnan, MoonSoo Choi and Natalie Epstein

Problem definition: We study how having more time allotted to deliver an order affects the speed of the delivery process. Furthermore, we seek to predict orders that are likely to be delayed early in the delivery process so that actions can be taken to avoid delays.... View Details

Keywords: Logistics; E-commerce; Mathematical Methods; AI and Machine Learning; Performance Productivity

07 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin

June 2009
Article

Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman

We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Film Entertainment; Demand and Consumers; Renting or Rental; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

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April 2015
Article

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System

By: Adi Sunderam

Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Banks and Banking

Article

Big Other: Surveillance Capitalism and the Prospects of an Information Civilization

By: Shoshana Zuboff

This article describes an emergent logic of accumulation in the networked sphere, 'surveillance capitalism,' and considers its implications for 'information civilization.' The institutionalizing practices and operational assumptions of Google Inc. are the... View Details

Keywords: Surveillance Capitalism; Big Data; Google; Information Society; Privacy; Internet Of Everything; Rights; Economic Systems; Analytics and Data Science; Internet and the Web; Ethics

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Article

Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment

By: Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein

We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details

Keywords: Perception; Behavior; Learning

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Winter 2013
Article

Mandatory IFRS Adoption and Financial Statement Comparability

By: Francois Brochet, Alan Jagolinzer and Edward J. Riedl

This study examines whether mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) leads to capital market benefits through enhanced financial statement comparability. UK domestic standards are considered very similar to IFRS (Bae et al., 2008),... View Details

Keywords: IFRS; Comparability; Private Information; Insider Trading; Ethics; Standards; Financial Statements

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29 Aug 2011
Research & Ideas

Decoding Insider Information and Other Secrets of Old School Chums

An old adage says that it's not what you know, it's whom you know. But outsiders can take heart: even for those who don't belong to a high-power social network, there's power in simply keeping track of who went to school with whom. Associate Professors Lauren H. Cohen... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Financial Services

June 2005
Article

Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Developing Countries and Economies; Inflation and Deflation

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2001
Working Paper

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

2023
Working Paper

Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship

By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton

We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Executive Compensation

October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing

By: George Serafeim, Siko Sikochi and Namrata Arora

The problem was massive: two million hectares of African forests were lost annually to charcoal production for cooking, an area equivalent to 13 times Greater London, resulting in one billion tons of carbon emissions yearly. At the same time, an estimated 700,000... View Details

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