Forecasting And Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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April 2008
Case

Campbell and Bailyn's Boston Office: Managing the Reorganization

By: Anne Donnellon and Dun Gifford Jr

Ken Winston, the regional sales manager at a securities brokerage firm, has reorganized his generalist salespeople into Key Account Teams (KAT) to increase sales of specialized, higher-margin fixed income products. Winston is also implementing a new corporate... View Details

2012
Working Paper

Payout Taxes and the Allocation of Investment

When corporate payout is taxed, internal equity (retained earnings) is cheaper than external equity (share issues). If there are no perfect substitutes for equity finance, payout taxes may therefore have an effect on the investment of firms. High taxes will favor... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Equity; Financing and Loans; Investment; Taxation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Motivation and Incentives

2023
Working Paper

Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship

By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton

We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Executive Compensation

April 2024
Article

Speaking up and Taking Action: Psychological Safety and Joint Problem-solving Orientation in Safety Improvement

By: Hassina Bahadurzada, Michaela J. Kerrissey and Amy C. Edmondson

Healthcare organizations face stubborn challenges in ensuring patient safety and mitigating clinician turnover. This paper aims to advance theory and research on patient safety by elucidating how the role of psychological safety in patient safety can be enhanced with... View Details

Keywords: Healthcare Operations; Psychological Safety; Teams; Retention; Safety; Customer Satisfaction; Organizational Culture; Performance Evaluation; Health Industry

2021
Working Paper

Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang

We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details

Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making

October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing

By: George Serafeim, Siko Sikochi and Namrata Arora

The problem was massive: two million hectares of African forests were lost annually to charcoal production for cooking, an area equivalent to 13 times Greater London, resulting in one billion tons of carbon emissions yearly. At the same time, an estimated 700,000... View Details

07 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin

2024
Working Paper

Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises

By: Victoria Ivashina, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven and Karsten Müller

Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Borrowing and Debt; Credit

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2023
Working Paper

Advances in Power-to-Gas Technologies: Cost and Conversion Efficiency

By: Gunther Glenk, Philip Holler and Stefan Reichelstein

Widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy carrier is widely believed to require continued advances in Power-to-Gas (PtG) technologies. Here we provide a comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of system prices and conversion efficiency for three currently prevalent... View Details

Keywords: Clean Tech; Decarbonization; Carbon Emissions; Learning By Doing; Environment; Energy; Environmental Management; Sustainable Cities; Price; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Industrial Products Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Transportation Industry; Europe; North America; South America; Africa; Asia

July 2015
Article

Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk

By: Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey and Abbie Smith

We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Crime and Corruption; Governance Compliance; Financial Reporting; Organizational Culture

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January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
Case

THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

By: Jill Avery, Ayelet Israeli and Emma von Maur

THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on... View Details

Keywords: Data; Data Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Fashion; Retail; Retail Analytics; E-Commerce Strategy; Platform; Platforms; Big Data; Preference Elicitation; Preference Prediction; Predictive Analytics; App Development; ＂Marketing Analytics＂; Advertising; Mobile App; Mobile Marketing; Apparel; Online Advertising; Referral Rewards; Referrals; Female Ceo; Female Entrepreneur; Female Protagonist; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Creativity; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Digital Platforms; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States

Article

CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics

By: Jung Koo Kang, Christopher Williams and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman

We investigate how credit default swaps (CDSs) affect lenders’ incentives to initiate new lending relationships. We predict that CDSs reduce adverse selection that nonrelationship lead arrangers face when competing for loans. Consistently, we find that a loan is... View Details

Keywords: Credit Default Swaps; CDS Market; Non-relationship Lending; Debt Contracts; Adverse Selection; Lending Monitoring; Cross-selling

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Article

Big Other: Surveillance Capitalism and the Prospects of an Information Civilization

By: Shoshana Zuboff

This article describes an emergent logic of accumulation in the networked sphere, 'surveillance capitalism,' and considers its implications for 'information civilization.' The institutionalizing practices and operational assumptions of Google Inc. are the... View Details

Keywords: Surveillance Capitalism; Big Data; Google; Information Society; Privacy; Internet Of Everything; Rights; Economic Systems; Analytics and Data Science; Internet and the Web; Ethics

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Article

Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment

By: Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein

We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details

Keywords: Perception; Behavior; Learning

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Winter 2013
Article

Mandatory IFRS Adoption and Financial Statement Comparability

By: Francois Brochet, Alan Jagolinzer and Edward J. Riedl

This study examines whether mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) leads to capital market benefits through enhanced financial statement comparability. UK domestic standards are considered very similar to IFRS (Bae et al., 2008),... View Details

Keywords: IFRS; Comparability; Private Information; Insider Trading; Ethics; Standards; Financial Statements

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2013
Working Paper

NBC and the 2012 London Olympics: Unexpected Success

By: Stephen A. Greyser and Vadim Kogan

"The 2010 Vancouver Winter Games lost $223 million, astonishing for a 17-day event. Next year's London Summer Games, which cost a record Olympic rights fee of $1.18 billion, are expected to lose at least as much..." wrote Richard Sandomir in The New York Times. "NBC... View Details

Keywords: Success; Profit; Sports; Failure; Television Entertainment; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Vancouver; Beijing; London; Brazil; Russia

August 2003
Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets

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April 2015
Article

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System

By: Adi Sunderam

Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Banks and Banking

Article

Productivity Orientation and the Consumption of Collectable Experiences

By: Anat Keinan and Ran Kivetz

This research examines why consumers desire unusual and novel consumption experiences and voluntarily choose leisure activities, vacations, and celebrations that are predicted to be less pleasurable. For example, consumers sometimes choose to stay at freezing ice... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Innovation and Invention; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Performance Productivity

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February 2017 (Revised February 2018)
Case

Frank Baker: Siris Capital Group and Titan Systems

By: Steven Rogers and Derrick Collins

Private equity firm, Siris Capital Group, must decide if they should raise their offer to take Titan Telecom private by acquiring its publicly traded stock. Siris’ decision to pay a premium for Titan must be made in the context of their unique (and somewhat complex)... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Leveraged Buyouts; Mergers and Acquisitions; Private Equity; Mobile Technology; Financial Services Industry; Communications Industry; Telecommunications Industry; United States

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