Publications

December 1995 (Revised March 1996)
Case

Nestle and the Twenty-First Century

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Elizabeth Ashcroft

A leading food company rethinks its future in the global food system by major geographical areas. View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Geographic Location; Globalization; Strategy; System; Food and Beverage Industry

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February 2021
Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein

This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

May 2007 (Revised April 2008)
Case

Tiger-Tread

By: Rohit Deshpande and Richard Cardozo

Describes an innovative product launch for which a marketing plan and a breakeven analysis are needed. To introduce students to breakeven analysis and the essentials of developing a marketing plan. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Planning

July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
Background Note

Note on Comparative Advantage

By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman

Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory

12 Jul 2011
First Look

First Look: July 12

debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

April 2025 (Revised May 2025)
Background Note

Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap

By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller

Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Business or Company Management

July 2019
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch

19 Aug 2008
First Look

First Look: August 19, 2008

demand to underpin the link across three features of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

December 1970 (Revised September 2006)
Case

Harmon Foods, Inc.

Prediction and shipment has been a scheduling and budgetary problem. Multiple regression is suggested as a solution. Evaluation of regression coefficients leads to better understanding of trend, seasonality, and promotion effectiveness. View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

05 Feb 2008
First Look

First Look: February 5, 2008

No abstract is available at this time. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-057.pdf Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

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October 2023
Article

Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA

By: Matthew S. Johnson, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel

We study how a regulator can best target inspections. Our case study is a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) program that randomly allocated some inspections. On average, each inspection averted 2.4 serious injuries (9%) over the next five years.... View Details

Keywords: Safety Regulations; Regulations; Regulatory Enforcement; Machine Learning Models; Safety; Operations; Service Operations; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Decisions; United States

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June 2016 (Revised May 2017)
Case

Searching for a New CEO: TiVo 2016

By: David B. Yoffie

In 2015, TiVo initiated a search for a new CEO. This case provides a profile of the CEO search and background on the company. View Details

Keywords: Technological Change; Succession Planning; Information Technology; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Management Succession; Forecasting and Prediction; Change; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry

July 2006 (Revised May 2007)
Case

Dubailand: Destination Dubai

Under the leadership of the al-Maktoum family, Dubai, a member of the United Arab Emirates, invested heavily in its infrastructure to reduce national dependence on oil and gas reserves. As an established international destination for shipping, business initiatives, and... View Details

Keywords: Geographic Location; Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Projects; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Dubai

October 1998 (Revised August 2001)
Teaching Note

Intel Corporation: 1968-1997 TN

By: Gary P. Pisano

Teaching Note for (9-797-137). View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Competitive Advantage; Forecasting and Prediction; Semiconductor Industry

2002
Other Unpublished Work

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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Forthcoming
Article

Human-Algorithm Collaboration with Private Information: Naïve Advice Weighting Behavior and Mitigation

By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong

Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have private information which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use and adjust recommendations made by... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Digital Marketing

May 2003
Case

Liz Claiborne, Inc.

By: Rajiv Lal, Walter J. Salmon and Edie Prescott

Discusses the business portfolio emphasis of a large multibrand manufacturer and the future of department stores as well as how relationships between manufacturers and key customers can be improved. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Brands and Branding; Production; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Apparel and Accessories Industry

July 2005
Case

Freemark Abbey Winery (Abridged)

Freemark Abbey must decide whether to harvest in view of the possibility of rain. Rain could damage the crop but delaying the harvest would be risky. On the other hand, rain could be beneficial and greatly increase the value of the resulting wine. This decision is... View Details

Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Forecasting and Prediction; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry