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August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction

17 Apr 2007
First Look

First Look: April 17, 2007

of inventory policies, including optimal inventory policies, that can be employed in a single-stage supply chain. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series models... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

08 May 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, May 8, 2018

1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think it comes from an algorithm than from a person. People showed this sort of algorithm appreciation when making numeric estimates about a visual stimulus... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

11 Jan 2011
First Look

First Look: Jan. 11

Publication:Journal of Finance (forthcoming) Abstract We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry.... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

Foreseeing Marketing

By: R. Deshpande

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing

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February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
Case

People Analytics at Teach For America (A)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley

As of mid-2016, national nonprofit Teach For America (TFA) had struggled with three consecutive years of declining application totals, and senior management was re-examining the organization's strategy, including recruitment and selection. A few months earlier, former... View Details

Keywords: Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

2023
Working Paper

Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill

In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias

July 2005 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Ryanair Holdings plc

Examines the valuation of an Irish airline that reported its first decline in net income in 2004 and saw a 30% stock price drop on the news. Ryanair is a low-cost, low-fare airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, operating over 200 routes in 20 countries. The company... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; International Accounting; Analysis; Valuation; Air Transportation; Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Air Transportation Industry; Dublin

01 Jul 2014
First Look

First Look: July 1

firm-level expected returns and expected profitability are time-varying but highly persistent; 2) forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

1995
Chapter

Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability

By: S. B. White, M. H. Bazerman and M. A. Neale

Keywords: Negotiation; Outcome or Result; Forecasting and Prediction

February 2013
Article

Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews

By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino

Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction; Research

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November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

June 1999
Article

Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

By: F. Frei and P. Harker

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

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May 1990
Background Note

Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide

By: Robert J. Dolan

Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

February 1997
Case

Arch Communications Group, Inc.

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Sarayu Srinivasan

The market values Arch differently from analysts' values. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Framework; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Stocks

April 1998
Case

X-IT Products, LLC

By: Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart and Barbara Feinberg

Two entrepreneurs, Andrew Ive and Aldo DiBerlardino, are poised to launch their first product. The decisions they make will have a crucial impact on the future of their company. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Product Launch; Outcome or Result

December 1995 (Revised March 1996)
Case

Nestle and the Twenty-First Century

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Elizabeth Ashcroft

A leading food company rethinks its future in the global food system by major geographical areas. View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Geographic Location; Globalization; Strategy; System; Food and Beverage Industry

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January 1995
Background Note

A Note on Distribution of Venture Investments

By: Josh Lerner

Venture capitalists typically exit investments by distributing shares to investors. These transfers pose challenges for these investors. Predictions and evidence about the behavior of stock prices of firms around the time of these distributions are presented. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Stocks; Investment; Price

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March 2022
Case

Auto Mag (Abridged)

By: David E. Bell

A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to... View Details

Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

28 Jan 2014
First Look

First Look: January 28

Publications August 2013 Princeton University Press Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters By: Friedman, Walter A. Abstract—The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

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