Publications

June 2022
Teaching Plan

GreenLight Fund

By: Brian Trelstad and Mel Martin

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 320-053. As Tara Noland, the Executive Director (ED) of GreenLight Cincinnati, reflected on her first few years on the job. Noland had delivered on what she had been hired to do in the city: work with leading philanthropists and nonprofit... View Details

Keywords: Philanthropy; Venture Philanthropy; Replication; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Venture Capital; Social Issues; Decision Making; Cincinnati

July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction

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May 2018
Exercise

Data Visualization & Communication Exercise

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This exercise uses the 1986 Challenger shuttle disaster to explore the relationship between data visualization, effective communication, and decision-making. Students review and analyze excerpts from the 13 charts engineers presented to NASA executives the night before... View Details

Keywords: Visualization; Data; Analytics and Data Science; Communication; Performance Effectiveness; Decision Making; Analysis

May 2017
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product; Product Launch; Marketing

March 2013
Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention

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Read Now

May 2012
Case

Columbia's Final Mission (Abridged) (A)

By: Amy C. Edmondson and Kerry Herman

This case documents decision-making processes, organizational culture, and other contributors to NASA's failed Columbia mission in 2003. Addresses the question of how organizations should deal with "ambiguous threats" - weak signals of potential crisis - and explores... View Details

Keywords: Cognitive Biases; Teams; Organizational Learning; Ambiguous Threat; Leadership; Organizational Culture; Decision Making; Failure; Crisis Management; Aerospace Industry

August 2010
Teaching Note

Flash Memory, Inc. (Brief Case)

By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson

Teaching Note for 4230. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

June 2010
Teaching Note

Southwest Airlines: In a Different World (TN)

By: James L. Heskett and W. Earl Sasser

Teaching Note for 910419. View Details

Keywords: Competition; Price; Service Operations; Globalization; Cost vs Benefits; Air Transportation Industry; New York (state, US)

September 1998
Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth

Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy

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April 2005
Case

Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron

Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States

September 2003 (Revised February 2004)
Case

Electronic Arts: The Blockbuster Strategy

Describes the process that the firm employs to allocate resources to new product development projects. Examines whether the firm can sustain its competitive advantage given its existing game design process. View Details

Keywords: Resource Allocation; Competitive Advantage; Decision Making; Product Development; Video Game Industry

2009
Chapter

R&D Project Selection and Portfolio Management: A Review of the Past, a Description of the Present, and a Sketch of the Future

By: D. Brunner, L. Fleming, A. MacCormack and D. Zinner

Keywords: Research and Development; Projects; Innovation and Management; Decision Making

January 1992 (Revised March 1993)
Case

Maison Bouygues

By: John A. Quelch

The vice president of marketing is reviewing the 1991 marketing plan and budget for Maison Bouygues, the leading builder of new single family homes in France. Due to recession, the company's sales are forecast to be flat and adjustments may need to be made in the... View Details

Keywords: Housing; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Brands and Branding; Construction Industry; France