Publications

03 May 2016
First Look

First Look, May 3, 2016

employee perceptions of employment security. In particular, we exploit exogenous state-level changes in unemployment insurance benefits and test for partial unwinding of prior upward earnings management when benefits increase. An increase in unemployment benefits View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

When Dreaming Is Believing: The (Motivated) Interpretation of Dreams

By: Carey K. Morewedge and Michael I. Norton

This research investigated laypeople's interpretation of their dreams. Participants from both Eastern and Western cultures believed that dreams contain hidden truths (Study 1) and considered dreams to provide more meaningful information about the world than similar... View Details

Keywords: Anchoring; Attribution; Dreams; Motivated Reasoning; Unconscious Thought; Communication Intention and Meaning; Judgments; Values and Beliefs; Information; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Motivation and Incentives

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01 Jun 1998
News

Investigation Leads to Sanctions, Recommendations

year. On April 9, a letter to the HBS community from Dean Kim B. Clark and a statement from the Faculty and Staff Standards Committee (FSSC) reported the results of an investigation that had found a pattern of behavior within one class... View Details

May 1979 (Revised August 2013)
Background Note

Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments

By: William J. Poorvu

Develops a conceptual framework for financial analysis of real estate investments, taking into consideration the necessity for baseline data, project trends, and forecast discontinuities. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Trends; Real Estate Industry; Financial Services Industry

August 2018
Case

Christine Lagarde (A): A French Prime Minister Calls

By: Julie Battilana and Carin-Isabel Knoop

This case covers formative events and influences in Christine Lagarde’s childhood and her trajectory from studying political science and law to heading the world’s largest law firm. As she prepares to transition back to practice in 2005, the new Prime Minister of... View Details

Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Power and Influence; Decision Making

Editorial

The Power of Precise Predictions

By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic

Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics

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2011
Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser

One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details

Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking

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November 2004 (Revised April 2010)
Module Note

Module II: Moral Reasoning Class Summaries

By: Sandra J. Sucher

Presents class summaries for the The Moral Leader course. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Moral Sensibility; Leadership; Cognition and Thinking

February 2004 (Revised April 2004)
Exercise

Family Business Ownership Goals Worksheet

By: John A. Davis

Family members who either own a business or who could inherit ownership in a business are helped to clarify how they would like to have the business owned in the future. View Details

Keywords: Family Business; Family Ownership; Decision Making

February 1994
Background Note

Causal Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Discusses what causation is and what one can (and cannot) learn about causation from observational (nonexperimental) data. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Analytics and Data Science; Interests

March 1996
Case

African Communications Group

Describes the opportunities that confront the African Communications Group, an entrepreneurial organization that plans to introduce a wireless pay-phone system in Tanzania. Provides a foundation for the analysis of value creation and of value capture. The possibility... View Details

Keywords: Value Creation; Competition; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry; Tanzania

1985
Chapter

Cost-Benefit Analysis Applied to Risks: Its Philosophy and Legitimacy

By: Dutch Leonard and Richard Zeckhauser

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management

27 Apr 2022
News

Rolling Back Degree Requirements Expands the Pipeline for Tech

January–February 2020
Article

Give Your Colleague the Rating He Deserves—or the One He Wants?

By: Anthony J. Mayo, Joshua D. Margolis and Amy Gallo

The article presents a case study on business friendship and its possible effect on employee ratings. It mentions a hypothetical case where one member of a team didn't meet his deadlines on the development of a new product, the use of a peer-to-peer employee rating... View Details

Keywords: Groups and Teams; Relationships; Performance Evaluation; Decision Making

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March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
Case

Growth Investing at Totem Point

By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg

The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point... View Details

Keywords: Growth Investing; Investment; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation

March 2011
Supplement

The Future of BioPasteur -- Supplement

By: Giovanni Gavetti and Francesca Gino

The purpose of this exercise is to let students experience a few biases that can be deleterious to strategic decision-making. In particular, students are induced to fall into a confirmatory trap, and to experience other biases such as anchoring and sampling bias.... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Problems and Challenges; Prejudice and Bias