probability - Publications - Faculty & Research

17 Sep 2007
Research & Ideas

Broadband: Remaking the Advertising Industry

because how do you tap into something that comes from who knows where? If I'm a media company like WPP Group and I'm dealing with a major account, I would probably want to put a measurable amount of that account into an event or a... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Advertising; Media & Broadcasting; Publishing

19 Jul 2016
First Look

July 19, 2016

Abstract—We estimate the causal effect of sovereign default on the equity returns of Argentine firms. We identify this effect by exploiting changes in the probability of Argentine sovereign default induced by legal rulings in the case of... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

08 Sep 2009
Research & Ideas

The Height Tax, and Other New Ways to Think about Taxation

fair strategies in public finance? A: Tax economists generally point to a few things about current taxes that seem unwise. Probably foremost among them is the taxation of capital income, such as dividends and capital gains. There is a... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

08 Jul 2014
First Look

First Look: July 8

financial crisis. The trouble is that investment value and asset volatility are simply the wrong measures if your goal is to secure a particular future income. In this article, Merton explains a liability-driven investment strategy whose aim is to improve the View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

02 Mar 2010
First Look

First Look: March 2

discussed supporting innovation through a range of additional policy interventions, including tax credits, loan guarantees, IP policy, regulatory mandates, codes, and standards. It is critically important that these kinds of interventions be thoughtfully designed since... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

05 Aug 2024
Research & Ideas

Watching for the Next Economic Downturn? Follow Corporate Debt

3.6 percentage point rise in the probability a financial crisis will ensue. When commercial lending is backed by real estate, the alarm sounds even louder. Each standard deviation increase in real-estate backed corporate credit relative... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

17 Sep 2020
Research & Ideas

Many Small-Business Employees May Be Close to Losing Health Insurance

percent.” [div class=infogram-embed data-id=_/PTn9Crz3um0RdsAO7am1][/div] The federal Paycheck Protection Program probably played a role, too: Small businesses that reported receiving PPP approval were much less likely to cut insurance... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Health

27 Nov 2017
Research & Ideas

Beware the Lasting Impression of a 'Temporary' Selfie

llSource: iStock Think that probably inappropriate Snapchat selfie is safe from leaking into your professional life because it disappears? Think again. Features on some communication apps like Snapchat and Instagram Stories allow you to... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

13 May 2014
Op-Ed

The Alibaba Effect

guessing among them and probably an eventual change in policies and views. Losing Alibaba really stung.) Alibaba was founded in 1999 in the city of Hangzhou in Zhejiang province in eastern China. In those early days, it was a small,... View Details

Keywords: by Bill Kirby & Warren McFarlan; Retail

06 Nov 2000
What Do You Think?

Succession at GE: What’s Next?

qualities and two or three capabilities would be at the top of your list in selecting a successor to Jack Welch? Because GE has had only eight CEOs in its proud 122-year history, beginning with Thomas Alva Edison, you should probably... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

04 Sep 2019
Research & Ideas

'I Know Why You Voted for Trump' and Other Motivation Misperceptions

She hopes the results make business leaders think twice about how they size up their customers and rely on previous purchases to predict the products they want. “For instance, imagine you see a person buy a plain black backpack,” she says. “You View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

20 Oct 2014
Research & Ideas

Users Love Ello, But What’s the Business Model?

for it? Probably not, as long as there is a giant global community (Facebook), with a billion monthly active members, including that high school exchange student who they lost touch with when they went back to Bolivia. And that one's... View Details

Keywords: Re: John A. Deighton & Sunil Gupta; Publishing; Financial Services

18 Feb 2002
Research & Ideas

Wrap-up: Software, Telecom, and Recovery

It takes more courage, and by the way, everyone can't do it.—Ed Kania Firms do need to focus more than ever on industries they are good at, said Kevin Jacques, senior associate of Sevin Rosen Funds. "It's probably impossible"... View Details

Keywords: by Wendy Guild & Martha Lagace; Financial Services; Technology; Communications; Telecommunications

01 Jul 2013
Research & Ideas

Crowdfunding a Poor Investment?

usually required in a venture capital presentation. “A lot of companies that probably shouldn't get funding will get it” As enticing as crowdfunding is as a concept, it may ultimately have little power to shake up the investing world,... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Financial Services

11 Aug 2016
Cold Call Podcast

Why College Rankings Keep Deans Awake at Night

as one of those, Bill. Thanks for joining me. Bill: It's great to be here, Brian. Thanks for asking. Brian: I found this case to be very, very interesting. I think many of our listeners have probably referred to those rankings at some... View Details

Keywords: Re: William C. Kirby; Education

19 Dec 2016
Research & Ideas

The 10 Most Popular Stories of 2016

design and identity before the 9/11 attacks and through three subsequent phases finds that successful changes to organizational identity are likely to be delayed after a radical external shock: Management is likely to be constrained, appropriate design is View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

19 Sep 2012
Research & Ideas

Book Excerpt: “The Architecture of Innovation”

The key to managing innovation starts, and probably ends, with incentives. In his new book, The Architecture of Innovation: The Economics of Creative Organizations, Harvard Business School Professor Josh Lerner puts it this way:... View Details

Keywords: by Josh Lerner; Financial Services

22 Sep 2003
Research & Ideas

When Protestors Knock at Your Door

factor. For industrial firms, other elements will come into play. LaMure: It varies by firm and industry. For most firms, however, it is probably helpful to consider how their response may help or hinder their competitive position in a... View Details

Keywords: by Cynthia Churchwell

12 Aug 2014
First Look

First Look: August 12

arises from behavioral biases and misperceptions of probability distributions. Finally, nonpecuniary taste-based factors may be important in motivating both the decisions to enter into and to persist in entrepreneurship. Publisher's link:... View Details