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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (948)

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      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

      By: Richard S. Ruback
      This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation
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      Ruback, Richard S. "Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-036, October 2010.
      • September 2010
      • Case

      Quanta Research Institute: Rainforest or Hothouse?

      By: Willy C. Shih, Jyun-Cheng Wang and Ho Howard Yu
      Barry Lam, the CEO and founder of Quanta Computer (the largest notebook computer manufacturer worldwide), has recognized for many years that he had to transform the company to decrease its dependence on producing commodity hardware for other global brands and move the... View Details
      Keywords: Change Management; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Development; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Research and Development; Computer Industry; Taiwan
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      Shih, Willy C., Jyun-Cheng Wang, and Ho Howard Yu. "Quanta Research Institute: Rainforest or Hothouse?" Harvard Business School Case 611-024, September 2010.
      • September 2010
      • Article

      Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

      By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
      Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details
      Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States
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      Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?" Management Science 56, no. 9 (September 2010): 1519–1533.
      • 2010
      • Other Unpublished Work

      International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth

      By: Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vadym Volosovych
      The key in the investigation of "where" and "why" capital flows, relative to the neoclassical benchmark, is how we measure these flows. The macro literature has been using three main yardsticks: the current account balance, returns to capital, and the volume of net... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Borrowing and Debt; Capital; Cash Flow; Private Equity; Public Equity; International Finance; Sovereign Finance; Government and Politics
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      Alfaro, Laura, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Vadym Volosovych. "International Capital Allocation, Sovereign Borrowing, and Growth." 2010.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Reversing the Queue: Performance, Legitimacy, and Minority Hiring

      By: Andrew Hill and David A. Thomas
      Studies of minority hiring have found that poor-performing firms or firms in highly competitive contexts are more likely to hire minority candidates. However, most work has examined hiring for entry and mid-level positions, not senior management. Management positions... View Details
      Keywords: Diversity; Selection and Staffing; Leadership; Managerial Roles; Performance Effectiveness; Sports Industry; United States
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      Hill, Andrew, and David A. Thomas. "Reversing the Queue: Performance, Legitimacy, and Minority Hiring." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-032, September 2010.
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

      By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman
      To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Service Industry
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      Craig, Nathan, Nicole DeHoratius, and Ananth Raman. "The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand." Working Paper. (Revised January 2016.)
      • August 2010
      • Case

      Flash Memory, Inc.

      By: William E. Fruhan and Craig Stephenson
      The CFO of Flash Memory, Inc. prepares the company's investing and financing plans for the next three years. Flash Memory is a small firm that specializes in the design and manufacture of solid state drives (SSDs) and memory modules for the computer and electronics... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting; Financial Management; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Computer Industry; Electronics Industry; United States
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      Fruhan, William E., and Craig Stephenson. "Flash Memory, Inc." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-230, August 2010.
      • August 2010
      • Teaching Note

      Flash Memory, Inc. (Brief Case)

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson
      Teaching Note for 4230. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr., and Craig Stephenson. "Flash Memory, Inc. (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 104-232, August 2010.
      • August 2010
      • Supplement

      Flash Memory, Inc., Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson
      Keywords: Forecasting; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr., and Craig Stephenson. "Flash Memory, Inc., Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 104-234, August 2010.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Employee Selection as a Control System

      By: Dennis Campbell
      Theories from the economics, management control, and organizational behavior literatures predict that when it is difficult to align incentives by contracting on output, aligning preferences via employee selection may provide a useful alternative. This study... View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Decision Making; Governance Controls; Employees; Selection and Staffing; Management Systems; Financial Services Industry
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      Campbell, Dennis. "Employee Selection as a Control System." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-021, August 2010. (Revised September 2010, April 2012.)
      • July 2010
      • Case

      Monmouth, Inc.

      By: Thomas R. Piper and Heide Abelli
      The management of Monmouth Inc. is considering whether to acquire the Robertson Tool Company and the value and form that the acquisition should take. Value can be assessed using a variety of approaches including a DCF with WACC analysis, impact on EPS and market... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Bidding; Forecasting; Stock Offerings; Mergers & Acquisitions; Margins; Stocks; Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Bids and Bidding; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R., and Heide Abelli. "Monmouth, Inc." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-226, July 2010.
      • July 2010
      • Teaching Note

      Monmouth, Inc. (Brief Case)

      By: Thomas R. Piper and Heide Abelli
      Teaching Note for 4226. View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Bidding; Forecasting; Stock Offerings; Mergers & Acquisitions; Valuation, Margins; Stocks; Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Bids and Bidding
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      Piper, Thomas R., and Heide Abelli. "Monmouth, Inc. (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 104-227, July 2010.
      • July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Profit; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 511-028, July 2010. (Revised December 2011.)
      • June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
      • Case

      Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit?

      By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi
      Classic Knitwear manufactures and distributes casual apparel, either unbranded or under a private-label brand name. Partly because Classic has no brand recognition with consumers, gross margins are low. To improve margins, the company considers partnering via a... View Details
      Keywords: Market Research; Forecasting; Consumer Marketing; New Product Marketing; Product Lines; Merchandising; Branding; Demand and Consumers; Partners and Partnerships; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Manufacturing Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Quelch, John A., and Patricia Girardi. "Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit?" Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-217, June 2010. (Revised July 2011.)
      • June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
      • Teaching Note

      Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit? (Brief Case)

      By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi
      Teaching Note for 4217. View Details
      Keywords: Market Research; Forecasting; Consumer Marketing; New Product Marketing; Product Lines; Merchandising; Branding; Research; Marketing Channels; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Brands and Branding
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      Quelch, John A., and Patricia Girardi. "Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit? (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 104-218, June 2010. (Revised July 2011.)
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-107, June 2010. (Revised August 2011.)
      • June 2010
      • Article

      A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; Investment Return; Government and Politics
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice." Journal of Finance 65, no. 3 (June 2010): 993–1028. (Supplementary results in Internet Appendix.)
      • June 2010
      • Article

      Quality Management and Job Quality: How the ISO 9001 Standard for Quality Management Systems Affects Employees and Employers

      By: David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      Several studies have examined how the ISO 9001 Quality Management System standard predicts changes in organizational outcomes such as profits. This is the first large-scale study to explore how employee outcomes such as employment, earnings, and health and safety... View Details
      Keywords: Quality; Management; Standards; Employees; Wages; Organizations; Profit; Safety; Health; Policy
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      Levine, David I., and Michael W. Toffel. "Quality Management and Job Quality: How the ISO 9001 Standard for Quality Management Systems Affects Employees and Employers." Management Science 56, no. 6 (June 2010): 978–996. (Appendix. Profiled by industry practitioners in Quality Digest, Quality Progress, ANSI-ASQ National Accreditation Board (ANAB).)
      • 2010
      • Article

      The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Are Not as Ethical as We Think We Are

      By: A. E. Tenbrunsel, K. Diekmann, K A. Wade-Benzoni and Max Bazerman
      This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and recollection is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Framework; Research; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias
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      Tenbrunsel, A. E., K. Diekmann, K A. Wade-Benzoni, and Max Bazerman. "The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Are Not as Ethical as We Think We Are." Research in Organizational Behavior 30 (2010): 153–173.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries

      By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger and Andrew F. Newman
      We study how trade policy affects firms' ownership structures. We embed an incomplete contracts model of vertical integration choices into a standard perfectly-competitive international trade framework. Integration decisions are driven by a trade-off between the... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Policy; Vertical Integration; Business and Government Relations; Boundaries; Ownership; Mathematical Methods
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      Alfaro, Laura, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, and Andrew F. Newman. "Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16118, June 2010.
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