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  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
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  • Research Summary

Consumer Decision Making and Behavioral Research

By: John T. Gourville

John Gourville’s research focuses on consumer behavior, especially in the areas of pricing and consumer decision making. In the area of pricing, for instance, he has looked at the role of time on how consumers interpret and react to product costs and prices.... View Details

  • Research Summary

Corporate Governance

By: Charles C.Y. Wang

The characteristics and structure of boards of directors have important implications for firm performance. Professor Wang has found that firms with well-connected boards whose members have strong network connections provide economic benefits that are not immediately... View Details

  • Teaching Interest

Doing Business in Africa

By: John D. Macomber

This course introduces frameworks and models for smart and focused investing and operations across sectors, nations, industries, and time frames in Africa.   Students will learn tools and skills to help navigate the business landscape of Africa in terms of selection... View Details

Keywords: Africa
  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
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  • Research Summary

Innovating in Energy: Learning from High-Potential Ventures

By: Joseph B. Lassiter

My work at HBS has always focused on high-potential ventures.  Most recently, these have been professionally financed start-ups and buyouts in newly emerging energy and cleantech businesses. These ventures tend to be based on innovative insights into technology and... View Details

  • Research Summary

Managing Networked Businesses

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann
Platform-based businesses that leverage network effects face a distinctive set of management challenges. A platform encompasses components and rules that facilitate interactions between the platform's users. A platform-based product or service exhibits a network... View Details
  • Research Summary

Overview

By: Charlotte L. Robertson
Professor Robertson conducts research on the history of financial markets. Her book manuscript and working papers shed light on the evolution of securities markets and the relationship between finance, governance, and society. Some of the topics she pursues include:... View Details
  • Forthcoming
  • Article

Passive Ownership and Price Informativeness

By: Marco Sammon
I show that passive ownership negatively affects the degree to which stock prices anticipate earnings announcements. Estimates across several research designs imply that the rise in passive ownership over the last 30 years has caused the amount of information... View Details
Keywords: Passive Ownership; ETFs; Market Efficiency; Price; Investment Funds; Stocks; Communication
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  • Forthcoming
  • Article

Public Disclosure of Private Meetings: Does Observing Peers’ Information Acquisition Affect Analysts’ Attention Allocation?

By: Yi Ru, Ronghuo Zheng and Yuan Zou
We investigate the impact of observing peers’ information acquisition on financial analysts’ allocation of attention. Using the timely disclosure mandate by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as a setting, we find that, shortly after analysts observe that a firm has been... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Information; Financial Institutions; Accounting; Financial Markets; Financial Services Industry; China
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  • Research Summary

Research Thrust

By: Rakesh Khurana
I am trained in organizational sociology and my main areas of interest lie in macro-organizational theory and the dynamics of executive labor markets. To date, my research has focused on two themes. The first revolves around understanding the forces that govern the... View Details
  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
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  • April 2025
  • Article

The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve
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  • Forthcoming
  • Article

The Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets

By: Jeremy C. Stein and Jonathan Wallen
We study supply-and-demand effects in the U.S. Treasury bill market by comparing the returns on T-bills to the administered policy rate on the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. In spite of the arguably more money-like properties of an investment in... View Details
Keywords: Debt Securities; Demand and Consumers; Price
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  • Teaching Interest

The Role of Government in Market Economies (RoGME)

By: Matthew C. Weinzierl

RoGME is about one question: What is the proper role of government in market economies? We study the role of government as it plays out in the real world, using case studies to examine policies of current interest and importance.... View Details

  • Forthcoming
  • Article

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details
Keywords: Stock Market; Financial Markets; Business Earnings; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty
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  • Research Summary

Wall Street Research

By: Paul M. Healy

Wall Street research helps to support a well-functioning capital market by providing investors with information about investment opportunities, and corporate issuers with liquidity for their stocks. Yet surprisingly little is known about how Wall Street research... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Brokerage; Investment Banking; Buy-side Analysts; Compensation; Financial Services Industry
  • Forthcoming
  • Article

Who Values Democracy?

By: Max Miller
This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details
Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation
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  • Research Summary

Working Papers

By: Dennis A. Yao

 

Lewis, Tracy R. and Dennis A. Yao. (2001, revised 2006). "Innovation, Knowledge Flow, and Worker... View Details

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