Publications

07 Oct 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

Keywords: by Wenxin Du, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger

Research Summary

Do Equity Covariances Reflect Financial Leverage?

No arbitrage option pricing theory and the efficient market hypothesis predict that firms with higher financial leverage should have higher equity betas, all else equal. This paper finds little support in the data for this prediction. Within industry, there is large... View Details

January 2009
Article

Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

By: Malcolm Baker, C. Fritz Foley and Jeffrey Wurgler

Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capital markets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals. Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flows increase... View Details

Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Valuation; Capital Markets; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Stocks; Integration

Article

Competition for Scarce Resources

By: Peter Eso, Volker Nocke and Lucy White

We model a downstream industry where firms compete to buy capacity in an upstream market that allocates capacity efficiently. Although downstream firms have symmetric production technologies, we show that industry structure is symmetric only if capacity is sufficiently... View Details

Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Natural Environment; Technology; Production; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Industry Structures; Performance Capacity

September 2011
Article

How Did Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings?

The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and S&P, leading to longstanding legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

27 Jan 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Labor Regulations and European Private Equity

Keywords: by Ant Bozkaya & William R. Kerr

Article

Faithful and Customizable Explanations of Black Box Models

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana and Jure Leskovec

As predictive models increasingly assist human experts (e.g., doctors) in day-to-day decision making, it is crucial for experts to be able to explore and understand how such models behave in different feature subspaces in order to know if and when to trust them. To... View Details

Keywords: Interpretable Machine Learning; Black Box Models; Decision Making; Framework

July 2016
Article

Taxation, Corruption, and Growth

By: Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé and William R. Kerr

We build an endogenous growth model to analyze the relationships between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. Entrepreneurs lie at the center of the model and face disincentive effects from taxation but acquire positive benefits from public infrastructure.... View Details

Keywords: Endogenous Growth; Public Goods; Corruption; Crime and Corruption; Entrepreneurship; Taxation; Economic Growth

October 2013
Article

How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies

By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya

While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods

September 2021 (Revised December 2021)
Case

Spire, the CubeSat Revolution, and the Government as a Space Data Customer

By: Matthew Weinzierl, Mehak Sarang and Brendan L. Rosseau

This case outlines the rise of Spire Global, a young space company using CubeSats to provide weather data and weather prediction services. In addition to tracing the evolution of a space startup from novel idea to publicly-traded company, the case also examines the... View Details

Keywords: Space; Government Contracting; Remote Sensing; Satellites; Business Startups; Public Sector; Cost vs Benefits; Competition; Weather; Forecasting and Prediction

Educators

Purchase

2014
Working Paper

Corporate Financial Policies in Misvalued Credit Markets

By: Jarrad Harford, Marc Martos-Vila and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We theoretically and empirically investigate the repercussions of credit market misvaluation for a firm's borrowing and investment decisions. Using an ex-post measure of the accuracy of credit ratings to capture debt market misvaluation, we find evidence that firms... View Details

21 Jul 2008
Research & Ideas

Solving the Marketing Resources Allocation Puzzle

allocation decisions—in essence, a way to organize their thoughts. Basically, all marketing allocation problems need to be addressed in two steps. In the first step, an analysis is undertaken to predict how different marketing actions... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

Fall 2019
Article

Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals

By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly

We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function.... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Productivity; Pharmaceuticals; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity; Pharmaceutical Industry

SSRN

26 Sep 2020
News

Here is what 10 Happiness World Leaders have to share about Happiness

Research Summary

Social Networks and Unraveling in Labor Markets

This paper develops a model of local unraveling (or early hiring) in entry-level labor markets. Information about workers' productivity is revealed over time and transmitted credibly via a two-sided network connecting firms and workers. While employment starts only... View Details

27 May 2011
Working Paper Summaries

An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds

Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

2024
Article

Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts

By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler

Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S. and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine learning models that can... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Refugees; Employment