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      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • June 2013
      • Article

      Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
      Keywords: Quality; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Credit
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Measurement Errors of Expected-Return Proxies and the Implied Cost of Capital

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang
      Despite their popularity as proxies of expected returns, the implied cost of capital's (ICC) measurement error properties are relatively unknown. Through an in-depth analysis of a popular implementation of ICCs by Gebhardt, Lee, and Swaminathan (2001) (GLS), I show... View Details
      Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Cost of Capital; Investment Return
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      Wang, Charles C.Y. "Measurement Errors of Expected-Return Proxies and the Implied Cost of Capital." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-098, May 2013. (Revised February 2015.)
      • May 2013
      • Teaching Note

      Coca-Cola: Residual Income Valuation

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Edward J. Riedl
      Teaching note for a case of the same title that introduces students to the residual income (also known as the abnormal earnings) valuation model using the firm Coca-Cola. Students are provided with the primary financial statements (through fiscal 2010) and forecast... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; United States
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Edward J. Riedl. "Coca-Cola: Residual Income Valuation." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 113-065, May 2013.
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost of Capital; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; United States
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19018, May 2013.
      • 2013
      • Article

      What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
      Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cognition and Thinking
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.
      • April 2013
      • Case

      Managing with Analytics at Procter & Gamble

      By: Thomas H. Davenport, Marco Iansiti and Alain Serels
      Senior management at P&G has put a strong emphasis on using data to make "better, smarter, real-time business decisions." The Global Business Services (GBS) organization has developed tools, systems and processes to provide managers throughout P&G with direct access to... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics; Data Management; Forecasting; Shared Services; Procter & Gamble; Laundry Detergent; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Mathematical Methods; Consumer Products Industry; North America
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      Davenport, Thomas H., Marco Iansiti, and Alain Serels. "Managing with Analytics at Procter & Gamble." Harvard Business School Case 613-045, April 2013.
      • 2013
      • Article

      Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance

      By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with... View Details
      Keywords: Networks; Governing and Advisory Boards; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance
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      Larcker, David F., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 55, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2013): 225–250.
      • April 2013
      • Article

      Overcoming Resistance to Organizational Change: Strong Ties and Affective Cooptation

      By: Julie Battilana and Tiziana Casciaro
      We propose a relational theory of how change agents in organizations use the strength of ties in their network to overcome resistance to change. We argue that strong ties to potentially influential organization members who are ambivalent about a change (fence-sitters)... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Power and Influence; Health Industry; United Kingdom
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      Battilana, Julie, and Tiziana Casciaro. "Overcoming Resistance to Organizational Change: Strong Ties and Affective Cooptation." Management Science 59, no. 4 (April 2013): 819–836.
      • March 2013
      • Article

      Misvaluing Innovation

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
      We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R&D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
      • March–April 2013
      • Article

      Vaporware, Suddenware and Trueware: New Product Preannouncements under Market Uncertainty

      By: Elie Ofek and Ozge Turut
      A firm may want to preannounce its plans to develop a new product in order to stimulate future demand. But given that such communications can affect rivals' incentives to develop the same new product, a firm may decide to preannounce untruthfully in order to deter... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Announcements; Competition; Product Launch; Product Development
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      Ofek, Elie, and Ozge Turut. "Vaporware, Suddenware and Trueware: New Product Preannouncements under Market Uncertainty." Marketing Science 32, no. 2 (March–April 2013): 342–355.
      • February 2013
      • Case

      New Enterprise Associates

      By: Felda Hardymon and Tom Nicholas
      NEA was established in 1977 and it subsequently morphed into one of the largest venture capital firms in the world. Despite its size and significance, some other firms established during the same era such as Kleiner-Perkins and Sequoia (both were established in 1972),... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Venture Capital; Organizational Structure; Innovation and Invention; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Hardymon, Felda, and Tom Nicholas. "New Enterprise Associates." Harvard Business School Case 813-097, February 2013.
      • February 2013 (Revised December 2015)
      • Case

      Groom Energy Solutions: Selling Efficiency

      By: Michael W. Toffel, Kira R. Fabrizio and Stephanie van Sice
      Groom Energy Solutions helps organizations reduce their energy use and costs through the implementation of energy efficiency measures, which create long-term financial and environmental benefits. With early success serving customers in the cold storage and industrial... View Details
      Keywords: Groom Energy Solutions; Jon Guerster; Salem, MA; Energy Management; Energy Efficiency Paradox; Sustainability Management; Manufacturing; Cold Storage; Commercial Real Estate; Enterprise Smart Grid; Carbon Accounting; LED Lighting; Sustainability Research; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Entrepreneurship; Energy Entrepreneurship; Energy Services; Electricity; Startup; Expansion; Growth; Sustainability; Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Energy Conservation; Revenue; Geographic Location; Human Resources; Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Operations; Service Delivery; Strategic Planning; Science; Environmental Sustainability; Climate Change; Society; Social Issues; Technology Adoption; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Utilities Industry; United States; Boston
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      Toffel, Michael W., Kira R. Fabrizio, and Stephanie van Sice. "Groom Energy Solutions: Selling Efficiency." Harvard Business School Case 613-054, February 2013. (Revised December 2015.)
      • January 2013
      • Case

      Brannigan Foods: Strategic Marketing Planning

      By: John A. Quelch and James T. Kindley
      The soup division at Brannigan Foods contributes over 40% of the firm's revenue. The general manager is concerned that the soup industry is declining and that the soup division shows declining profits and market share, especially among the important baby boomer... View Details
      Keywords: United States; Consumer Marketing; Acquisitions; Forecasting; Quantitative Analysis; Risk Management; Decision Making; Budgeting; Supermarkets; Strategic Planning; Demand and Consumers; Marketing Strategy; Food; Resource Allocation; Acquisition; Product Development; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
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      Quelch, John A., and James T. Kindley. "Brannigan Foods: Strategic Marketing Planning." Harvard Business School Brief Case 913-545, January 2013.
      • January 2013 (Revised March 2017)
      • Teaching Note

      Luotang Power: Variances Explained (Brief Case)

      By: Robert Simons and Craig Chapman
      The primary objective is to explore the concepts of variance analysis in performance from one year to the next and the predictability of contracting counterparts to extract value from contract positions where they can. The general manager of a coal-fired power plant... View Details
      Keywords: Variance Analysis; Strategy And Execution; Profitability Analysis; Management Control Systems; Contracts; Valuation; Energy Generation; Accounting; Performance Evaluation; China
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      Simons, Robert, and Craig Chapman. "Luotang Power: Variances Explained (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 913-534, January 2013. (Revised March 2017.)
      • 2013
      • Chapter

      Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Current Survey

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We survey the theory and evidence of behavioral corporate finance, which generally takes one of two approaches. The market timing and catering approach views managerial financing and investment decisions as rational managerial responses to securities mispricing. The... View Details
      Keywords: Managerial Roles; Theory; Corporate Finance; Financial Management; Investment; Market Timing; Behavioral Finance; Prejudice and Bias; Economics; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Current Survey." In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Volume 2A: Corporate Finance, edited by George M. Constantinides, Milton Harris, and Rene M. Stulz, 357–424. Handbooks in Economics. New York: Elsevier, 2013.
      • 2013
      • Book

      Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases

      By: Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy
      This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive... View Details
      Keywords: Governance; Debt Securities; Valuation; Performance Evaluation; Financial Statements; Credit; Business Ventures; Strategy; Financial Condition; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Palepu, Krishna G., and Paul M. Healy. Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases. 5th ed. Cengage Learning, 2013.
      • Article

      On Derivatives Markets and Social Welfare: A Theory of Empty Voting and Hidden Ownership

      By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield and Scott Duke Kominers
      In the past twenty-five years, derivatives markets have grown exponentially. Large, modern derivatives markets increasingly enable investors to hold economic interests in corporations without owning voting rights, and vice versa. This leads to both empty... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Corporate Disclosure; Financial Markets; Ownership
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      Barry, Jordan M., John William Hatfield, and Scott Duke Kominers. "On Derivatives Markets and Social Welfare: A Theory of Empty Voting and Hidden Ownership." Virginia Law Review 99, no. 6 (October 2013): 1103–1168.
      • November 2012
      • Article

      An Age Penalty in Racial Preferences

      By: Deborah A. Small, Devin G. Pope and Michael I. Norton
      We document an age penalty in racial discrimination: charitable behavior toward African American children decreases-and negative stereotypical inferences increase-with the age of those children. Using data from an online charity that solicits donations for school... View Details
      Keywords: Stereotyping; Charitable Giving; Prejudice; Prosocial Behavior; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Age; Race; Prejudice and Bias
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      Small, Deborah A., Devin G. Pope, and Michael I. Norton. "An Age Penalty in Racial Preferences." Social Psychological & Personality Science 3, no. 6 (November 2012): 730–737.
      • June 2012
      • Article

      Decoding Inside Information

      By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
      Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trading. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Law Enforcement; Opportunities; Geographic Location; Business Earnings
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      Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." Journal of Finance 67, no. 3 (June 2012): 1009–1043. (Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance.  Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research.)
      • Spring 2013
      • Article

      Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?

      By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Ioanna Serafeim
      We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast... View Details
      Keywords: International Accounting; Financial Reporting; Standards; Information; Quality; Earnings Management
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      Horton, Joanne, George Serafeim, and Ioanna Serafeim. "Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?" Contemporary Accounting Research 30, no. 1 (Spring 2013): 388–423.
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