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    • Research  (1,047)
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  • All HBS Web  (1,291)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,047)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (800)
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  • 05 Feb 2008
  • First Look

First Look: February 5, 2008

No abstract is available at this time. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-057.pdf Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 24 Jan 2012
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 10 Jan 2005
  • Research & Ideas

Professors Introduce Valuation Software

financial data to perform accounting analysis, ratio analysis, forecasted financials, and valuation. It also provides benchmarking for comparable firms. It was created by Harvard Business School faculty Krishna Palepu and Paul Healy, in... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne
  • Article

Towards Robust and Reliable Algorithmic Recourse

By: Sohini Upadhyay, Shalmali Joshi and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision making (e.g., loan approvals), there has been growing interest in post-hoc techniques which provide recourse to affected individuals. These techniques generate recourses under the assumption... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Recourse; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction
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Upadhyay, Sohini, Shalmali Joshi, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards Robust and Reliable Algorithmic Recourse." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
  • Article

Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations

By: Sushant Agarwal, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning black boxes are increasingly being deployed in critical domains such as healthcare and criminal justice, there has been a growing emphasis on developing techniques for explaining these black boxes in a post hoc manner. In this work, we analyze two... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Black Box Explanations; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology
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Agarwal, Sushant, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 38th (2021).
  • July 1997
  • Teaching Note

First Year Marketing Module Summary: Evolution of Marketing TN

By: John A. Deighton
Describes the organization of a four- or five-case module that concludes the Marketing Management course in the First Year curriculum at Harvard Business School and offers a look to the future. Covers introductory remarks to students at the start of the module, some... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Information; Marketing
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Deighton, John A. "First Year Marketing Module Summary: Evolution of Marketing TN." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 598-017, July 1997.
  • April 2010
  • Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers
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Gourville, John T. "Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 510-113, April 2010.
  • 08 Jan 2008
  • First Look

First Look: January 8, 2008

PublicationsEstimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts Authors:Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher Periodical:Manufacturing and Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007) Abstract... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 25 Feb 2015
  • Lessons from the Classroom

Scholars and Students Unpack the Digital Business Revolution

hedge fund, an Amazon employee focused on retail data, and a forecaster at General Electric," says HBS David Sarnoff Professor of Business Administration Marco Iansiti, who serves as faculty chair of the initiative and head of the... View Details
Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Education; Technology
  • October 2024
  • Article

How to Use Sales Assessments

By: Frank V. Cespedes
Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Sales
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Cespedes, Frank V. "How to Use Sales Assessments." Top Sales Magazine (October 2024), 10–11.
  • August 1999
  • Article

Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman
Keywords: Investment; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction
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Moore, D. A., T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox, and M. H. Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 2 (August 1999): 95–114.
  • November 1989 (Revised March 1992)
  • Background Note

Concept Testing

By: Robert J. Dolan
Describes concept testing products. Presents guidelines for effective design, execution, and interpretation of test procedures. Discusses limitations of these techniques and sets out the situations for which they are appropriate. View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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Dolan, Robert J. "Concept Testing." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-063, November 1989. (Revised March 1992.)
  • Article

Foreseeing Marketing

By: R. Deshpande
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing
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Deshpande, R. "Foreseeing Marketing." Journal of Marketing 63, no. 4 Special (October 1999): 164–167.
  • February 2021
  • Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details
Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning
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Toffel, Michael, and Natalie Epstein. Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models. Harvard Business School Tutorial 621-706, February 2021. (Click here to access this tutorial.)
  • May 2007 (Revised April 2008)
  • Case

Tiger-Tread

By: Rohit Deshpande and Richard Cardozo
Describes an innovative product launch for which a marketing plan and a breakeven analysis are needed. To introduce students to breakeven analysis and the essentials of developing a marketing plan. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Planning
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Deshpande, Rohit, and Richard Cardozo. "Tiger-Tread." Harvard Business School Case 507-077, May 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
  • July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
  • Background Note

Note on Comparative Advantage

By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman
Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details
Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory
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Yoffie, David B., and John J. Coleman. "Note on Comparative Advantage." Harvard Business School Background Note 387-023, July 1986. (Revised August 1987.)
  • 19 Aug 2008
  • First Look

First Look: August 19, 2008

demand to underpin the link across three features of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Article

Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Special Issue on Behavioral Game Theory. Economic Theory 33, no. 1 (October 2007): 29–51.
  • 07 Jun 2019
  • Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin
  • Forthcoming
  • Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details
Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." Journal of Finance (forthcoming).
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