Publications

Article

Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations

By: Sushant Agarwal, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As machine learning black boxes are increasingly being deployed in critical domains such as healthcare and criminal justice, there has been a growing emphasis on developing techniques for explaining these black boxes in a post hoc manner. In this work, we analyze two... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Black Box Explanations; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology

July 1997
Teaching Note

First Year Marketing Module Summary: Evolution of Marketing TN

By: John A. Deighton

Describes the organization of a four- or five-case module that concludes the Marketing Management course in the First Year curriculum at Harvard Business School and offers a look to the future. Covers introductory remarks to students at the start of the module, some... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Information; Marketing

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

08 Jan 2008
First Look

First Look: January 8, 2008

PublicationsEstimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts Authors:Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher Periodical:Manufacturing and Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007) Abstract... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

25 Feb 2015
Lessons from the Classroom

Scholars and Students Unpack the Digital Business Revolution

hedge fund, an Amazon employee focused on retail data, and a forecaster at General Electric," says HBS David Sarnoff Professor of Business Administration Marco Iansiti, who serves as faculty chair of the initiative and head of the... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Education; Technology

October 2024
Article

How to Use Sales Assessments

By: Frank V. Cespedes

Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Sales

August 1999
Article

Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman

Keywords: Investment; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction

Find at Harvard

November 1989 (Revised March 1992)
Background Note

Concept Testing

By: Robert J. Dolan

Describes concept testing products. Presents guidelines for effective design, execution, and interpretation of test procedures. Discusses limitations of these techniques and sets out the situations for which they are appropriate. View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

Educators

Article

Foreseeing Marketing

By: R. Deshpande

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing

Find at Harvard

February 2021
Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein

This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

May 2007 (Revised April 2008)
Case

Tiger-Tread

By: Rohit Deshpande and Richard Cardozo

Describes an innovative product launch for which a marketing plan and a breakeven analysis are needed. To introduce students to breakeven analysis and the essentials of developing a marketing plan. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Planning

Educators

July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
Background Note

Note on Comparative Advantage

By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman

Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory

Educators

19 Aug 2008
First Look

First Look: August 19, 2008

demand to underpin the link across three features of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron

Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result

Find at Harvard

07 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit