Publications

2024
Working Paper

Behavioral Attenuation

By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang

We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Behavioral Finance

Find at Harvard

Register to Read

2024
Working Paper

Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies

By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer

In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Policy

Find at Harvard

Register to Read

September–October 2024
Article

Where Data-Driven Decision-Making Can Go Wrong

By: Michael Luca and Amy C. Edmondson

When considering internal data or the results of a study, often business leaders either take the evidence presented as gospel or dismiss it altogether. Both approaches are misguided. What leaders need to do instead is conduct rigorous discussions that assess any... View Details

Keywords: Information; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Decision Making

Find at Harvard

Register to Read

August 2024
Case

The Walt Disney Company: Management Guidance

By: Joseph Pacelli and James Weber

In November 2023, financial analyst Aurora Fee was forecasting The Walt Disney Company’s earnings and stock price, with the goal of providing an investment recommendation to her clients. Disney, one of the world’s largest media and entertainment companies, had just... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Accounting; Investment; Communication; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Earnings; Growth and Development Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States

August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
Case

No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan

By: Robert F. White and Tom Quinn

After observing record voter dissatisfaction with the choices in the 2024 U.S. presidential election—Democratic nominee President Joe Biden and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump—the bipartisan nonprofit No Labels decided to reserve ballot access in... View Details

Keywords: Disruption; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Lawfulness; Failure; System Shocks; Political Elections; United States

August 2024
Background Note

Your True Moral Compass

By: Joseph L. Badaracco

This note explores the concept of a "moral compass" for making difficult decisions in leadership roles. It argues that the standard view of a moral compass as a simple, internal guide is inadequate for complex situations. Instead, it proposes that our true moral... View Details

Keywords: Moral Sensibility; Decision Choices and Conditions

August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
Case

Mercado Bitcoin: M&A, IPO, or Series B?

By: Raymond Kluender, Emanuele Colonnelli, Sabrina T. Howell and Karina Souza

In April 2021, Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin had to decide how to scale: go public, M&A with a bank, or take a VC big check. In a highly volatile market, Roberto Dagnoni, chairman of the board, viewed the unprecedent crypto momentum as a window of... View Details

2024
Working Paper

The Narrative AI Advantage? A Field Experiment on Generative AI-Augmented Evaluations of Early-Stage Innovations

By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang

The rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative problem-solving, necessitating new approaches for evaluating innovative solutions. This study explores how human-AI collaboration can enhance early-stage evaluations, focusing on the interplay... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Innovation and Invention; Decision Making

Read Now

August 2024
Case

Keurig: A Return to Growth

By: David Fubini and Patrick Sanguineti

By the early 2010s, Keurig Green Mountain (KGM) had lost the momentum that had made it the name in at-home coffee brewing in North America. Following a series of product missteps, negative media scrutiny, and ongoing challenges to its partner relationships, in late... View Details

Keywords: Turnaround; Mergers and Acquisitions; Decisions; Initial Public Offering; Global Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Going Public; Diversification; Expansion; Food and Beverage Industry

July 2024
Case

ZEISS: Commercializing Science

By: Maria P. Roche, Carlota Moniz and Daniela Beyersdorfer

Karl Lamprecht, President and CEO of the ZEISS AG Group, mused on how far ZEISS had come in 175 years of being a pioneer in optics, and how the course he had charted since taking the helm of the company could keep it on track. In his role, he oversaw the four core... View Details

July 2024 (Revised January 2025)
Case

Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors: Bringing Systematic Investment to Philanthropy

By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Alexander Bischoff and Sophia Pan

Melissa Berman, CEO of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors (RPA), evaluated her client’s philanthropy project and its mediocre performance. RPA was a segment of the Rockefeller Family Office’s Philanthropy Department, becoming an independent charity in 2002. Consistently... View Details

July 2024
Case

Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc

In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details

July 2024
Case

Roja Garimella: Developing a Founder's Judgment

By: Reza Satchu and Patrick Sanguineti

Roja Garimella’s path to becoming a founder was anything but straight. Setting her sights on a career in medicine since childhood, she committed to medical school with her acceptance to college. And yet, throughout her studies, she continually explored alternative... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Personal Development and Career; Entrepreneurial Finance; Business Startups; Judgments; Financial Services Industry; Health Industry

July 2024
Case

Wizards of the Coast and Magic: The Rebounding

By: Boris Groysberg and Tom Quinn

This case traces the history and growth of the Magic: The Gathering trading card game. From its development in 1993 by tiny studio Wizards of the Coast, to Wizards’ acquisition by toy giant Hasbro in 1999, to its evolution into a billion-dollar brand in 2023,... View Details

July 2024 (Revised December 2024)
Case

Compass Ethics: Governing Through Ethical Principles at WeCorp Industries

By: Elisabeth Kempf and Jesse M. Shapiro

Andrew Hill is Chief Information Officer at WeCorp, a UK-based defense technology startup specializing in drone technology. WeCorp faces decisions about international licensing and AI integration in its drones. In partnership with Compass Ethics, Hill aims to establish... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Making; Ethics; Entrepreneurial Finance; AI and Machine Learning; Technology Industry; United Kingdom

July 2024
Case

Titan: OceanGate's Tragedy of Titanic Proportions

By: Aiyesha Dey, Joseph Pacelli, James Barnett and ZeSean Ali

In June 2023, OceanGate’s Titan submersible imploded attempting to reach the Titanic shipwreck site 3,800 meters below sea level. All five passengers aboard died, including OceanGate founder and CEO Stockton Rush. Before the tragedy, many in the deep-sea exploration... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Decision Making; Ethics; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Technology Industry; Tourism Industry; Transportation Industry; Atlantic Ocean; North America; Washington (state, US)

July 2024
Article

A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior

By: Katherine B. Coffman, Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar

Many decisions—such as what educational or career path to pursue—are dynamic in nature, with individuals receiving feedback at one point in time and making decisions later. Using a controlled experiment, with two sessions one week apart, we analyze the dynamic effects... View Details

Keywords: Feedback; Beliefs; Stereotypes; Self-assessment; Gender Gap; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Perception; Decision Choices and Conditions

July 2024
Article

Demographic 'Stickiness': The Demographic Identity of Departing Group Members Influences Who Is Chosen to Replace Them

By: Edward H. Chang and Erika Kirgios

People tasked with replacing a departing group member are disproportionately likely to choose a replacement with the same demographic identity, leading to demographic “stickiness” in group composition. We examine this effect in 2,163 U.S. federal judge appointments... View Details

Keywords: Loss Aversion; Diversity; Race; Gender; Decisions