Publications

15 Oct 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Vote Choice Formation and the Minimal Effects of TV Debates: Evidence from 61 Elections in 9 OECD Countries

Keywords: by Caroline Le Pennec-Caldichoury and Vincent Pons

September–October 2020
Article

The Air War Versus the Ground Game: An Analysis of Multi-Channel Marketing in U.S. Presidential Elections

By: Lingling Zhang and Doug J. Chung

This study jointly examines the effects of television advertising and field operations in U.S. presidential elections, with the former referred to as the “air war” and the latter as the “ground game.” Specifically, the study focuses on how different campaign... View Details

Keywords: Multi-channel Marketing; Ground Campaigning; Political Campaigns; Discrete-choice Model; Instrumental Variables; Political Elections; Marketing Channels; Advertising; United States

2022
Working Paper

Control and Fairness: What Determines Elected Local Leaders’ Support for Hosting Refugees in Their Community?

By: Kristin Fabbe, Eleni Kyrkopoulou, Konstantinos Matakos and Aslı Unan

When it comes to successful refugee reception the local level matters. Research overwhelmingly examines host communities' attitudes, but endorsement from local politicians is equally important to resolving conflicts and facilitating harmonious interaction. Yet, the... View Details

Keywords: Values; Control; Refugee Resettlement; Local Elites; Contact; Fair-share; Conjoint Experiment; Refugees; Integration; Local Range; Leadership; Attitudes; Fairness

October 2016
Case

U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016: Marketing Communication Strategy

By: Robert J. Dolan

On October 18, 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump began the last three weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign by preparing for the next day's third and final presidential debate. Tuesday, November 8 was Election Day, but in... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Voting Behavior; Voting; Marketing Communications; Political Elections; United States

Educators

2022
Working Paper

Electoral Turnovers

By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement

May 2023
Article

How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the... View Details

Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions

April 2017 (Revised December 2024)
Case

Liberté, égalité, fragilité: The Rise of Populism in France

By: Vincent Pons

Keywords: France; Elections

Educators

November 2, 2012
Editorial

Natural Disasters Hurt Incumbents

By: Shawn A. Cole, Andrew Healy and Eric Werker

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Natural Disasters; Political Elections

04 Dec 2014
Working Paper Summaries

The Air War versus The Ground Game: An Analysis of Multi-Channel Marketing in US Presidential Elections

Keywords: by Doug J. Chung & Lingling Zhang

2020
Other Unpublished Work

Ground Work vs. Social Media: How to Best Reach Voters in French Municipal Elections

By: Vincent Pons and Vestal McIntyre

May 28, 2019
Other Article

How Russia Found a Disinformation Haven in America

By: Rawi Abdelal and Galit Goldstein

The Mueller Report established that “the Russians” undertook information operations campaigns to meddle in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Though this has been clear for a long time, Americans continue to discuss Russian information operations in the wrong way.... View Details

Keywords: Elections; Donald Trump; Political Elections; National Security; Information Technology; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Social Media; Russia; United States

15 Mar 2021
Working Paper Summaries

Fairness or Control: What Determines Elected Local Leaders’ Support for Hosting Refugees in Their Community?

Keywords: by Kristin Fabbe, Eleni Kyrkopoulou, Konstantinos Matakos, and Asli Unan

October 25, 2011
Article

Herman Cain and Mitt Romney, Is There a Reason No CEO Has Been Elected President?

By: Gautam Mukunda and Rakesh Khurana

Keywords: Government and Politics; Management

2024
Working Paper

Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries

By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz

Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details

Keywords: Political Parties; Political Instability; Democracy; Elections; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Ideology; Political Elections; Policy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Society; Perception; Crime and Corruption; Latin America; South America; Colombia; Peru

October 2012
Case

Romney vs. Obama and U.S. Energy Policy

By: Rawi Abdelal and Kaitlyn Tuthill

In 2012, the energy sector in the United States was demanding major reform. Prices of oil and gas had continued to cripple the middle and lower class as the U.S. economy slowly recovered. At the same time, the U.S. lagged behind developed economies in production of... View Details

Keywords: Mitt Romney; Barack Obama; Energy; Election Outcomes; Climate Change; Renewable Energy; Political Elections; Policy; Business and Government Relations; Public Administration Industry; United States

Educators

Article

Comment mobiliser les exclus du jeu politique?

By: Vincent Pons

Keywords: Elections; Voter Mobilization; France; Voting; Political Elections; France

October 2023
Article

Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates

By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud

Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Voting; Coordination; Bandwagon Effect; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France

Article

All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity

By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Mateo Montenegro

Can information and communication technologies help citizens monitor their elections? We analyze a large-scale field experiment designed to answer this question in Colombia. We leveraged Facebook advertisements sent to over 4 million potential voters to encourage... View Details

Keywords: Social Influence; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Economics; Economy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Media; Social Marketing; Society; Political Elections; Advertising

Article

Who Will Vote Quadratically? Voter Turnout and Votes Cast Under Quadratic Voting

By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers

Who will vote quadratically in large-N elections under quadratic voting (QV)? First, who will vote? Although the core QV literature assumes that everyone votes, turnout is endogenous. Drawing on other work, we consider the representativeness of endogenously... View Details

Keywords: Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Quadratic Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Mathematical Methods