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All HBS Web
(2,498)
- Faculty Publications (523)
- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
- 2022
- Working Paper
THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li and Saksham Soni
Since December 2019, the world has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 150 million confirmed cases and 3 million confirmed deaths worldwide. To combat the spread of COVID-19, governments have issued unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs),...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Health Pandemics;
Policy;
Framework;
Cost vs Benefits;
Outcome or Result;
United States;
Germany;
Brazil;
Singapore;
Spain
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Saksham Soni. "THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions." Working Paper, April 2022.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?
By: Laura Alfaro, Maggie X. Chen and Davin Chor
We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals' preferences for trade policies through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each treatment provides a concise statement of economics research...
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Alfaro, Laura, Maggie X. Chen, and Davin Chor. "Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-062, March 2022. (Revised May 2023. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31240, May 2023)
- February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
- Case
BUA Group
By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal
BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital...
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Keywords:
Investing;
Transportation;
Strategy;
Project Finance;
Agribusiness;
Construction;
Infrastructure;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Nigeria;
Africa
Macomber, John D., Pippa Tubman Armerding, and Wale Lawal. "BUA Group." Harvard Business School Case 222-062, February 2022. (Revised April 2022.)
- 2022
- Chapter
Creating 'Smart' Policy to Promote Entrepreneurship and Innovation
By: Karen G. Mills and Annie Dang
Entrepreneurship is a key to unlocking innovation and fostering regional and national economic productivity. Extensive studies demonstrate that small and young firms contribute to innovation and employment growth. But which of the many types of small firms are...
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Keywords:
Economic Policy;
High-growth;
Entrepreneurship;
Innovation and Invention;
Business Startups;
Economic Growth;
Policy;
United States
Mills, Karen G., and Annie Dang. "Creating 'Smart' Policy to Promote Entrepreneurship and Innovation." In The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, edited by Michael J. Andrews, Aaron Chatterji, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Electoral Turnovers
By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and...
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Keywords:
Election Outcomes;
Regression Discontinuity Design;
Political Elections;
Change;
Global Range;
Outcome or Result;
Economy;
Governance;
Performance Improvement
Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economic Studies.)
- 2022
- Chapter
The Servicification of the U.S. Economy: The Role of Startups versus Incumbent Firms
By: Mercedes Delgado, J. Daniel Kim and Karen G. Mills
Over the last few decades, the U.S. economy has exhibited a significant shift from manufacturing towards services. This transition has been particularly prominent in an important subcategory of services industries that drives innovation and employs many high-wage...
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Keywords:
Servicification;
Supply Chain Industries;
STEM Labor;
Innovation;
Growth;
Entrepreneurship;
Innovation and Invention;
Economic Growth;
Policy;
Service Industry;
United States
Delgado, Mercedes, J. Daniel Kim, and Karen G. Mills. "The Servicification of the U.S. Economy: The Role of Startups versus Incumbent Firms." In The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, edited by Michael J. Andrews, Aaron Chatterji, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...
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Keywords:
Uncertainty;
Policy Uncertainty;
Stock Market;
Financial Markets;
Volatility;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Policy;
Newspapers
Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
- 2022
- Book
Ripe for Revolution: Building Socialism in the Third World
By: Jeremy Friedman
A historical account of ideology in the Global South as the postwar laboratory of socialism, its legacy following the Cold War, and the continuing influence of socialist ideas worldwide.
In the first decades after World War II, many newly independent... View Details
In the first decades after World War II, many newly independent... View Details
Keywords:
Socialism;
Economic Systems;
Globalization;
Government and Politics;
Developing Countries and Economies
Friedman, Jeremy. Ripe for Revolution: Building Socialism in the Third World. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2022.
- 2021
- Chapter
Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster
By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick
This article draws lessons from the business support policies pursued in the COVID-19
pandemic to guide policy design for the next disaster. We contrast the performance
of the Paycheck Protection Program to the Main Street Lending Program to illustrate
how design...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Policy;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Financing and Loans;
United States
Hanson, Samuel Gregory, Adi Sunderam, and Eric Zwick. "Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster." In Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy, edited by Melissa S. Kearney and Amy Ganz, 52–77. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute, 2021.
- Article
The Supply Chain Economy: New Policies to Drive Innovation and Jobs
By: Mercedes Delgado and Karen G. Mills
The debate in economic policymaking about the drivers of innovation and job creation has long centered on manufacturing versus services. The predominant view is that manufacturing drives innovation, wages, and growth, and that services provide less innovation and...
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Keywords:
Supply Chain Industries;
Supply Chain;
Economy;
Policy;
Innovation and Invention;
Jobs and Positions
Delgado, Mercedes, and Karen G. Mills. "The Supply Chain Economy: New Policies to Drive Innovation and Jobs." Economía Industrial, no. 421 (December 2021).
- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit...
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Keywords:
Trade Policy;
Uncertainty;
Stock Returns;
Risk Premium;
Tariff Rates;
Portfolio Analysis;
Trade;
Policy;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Stocks;
Investment Return
Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
- November 2021 (Revised January 2024)
- Case
The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939
By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which...
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Keywords:
Great Depression;
Economic Conditions;
Unemployment;
Homelessness;
Financial Crisis;
History;
Economy;
Policy;
Poverty;
Social Issues;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
Cavallo, Alberto, Sophus A. Reinert, and Federica Gabrieli. "The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939." Harvard Business School Case 722-034, November 2021. (Revised January 2024.)
- November 2021
- Article
Digital Infrastructure Is More Than Just Broadband: What the U.S. Can Learn from Europe's Open Source Technology policy study
By: Frank Nagle
Keywords:
Technological Innovation;
Infrastructure;
Open Source Distribution;
Economic Growth;
United States;
European Union
Nagle, Frank. "Digital Infrastructure Is More Than Just Broadband: What the U.S. Can Learn from Europe's Open Source Technology policy study." Brookings Series: Reimagining Modern-day Markets and Regulations (November 2021).
- 2021
- Chapter
Digital Infrastructure
By: Shane Greenstein
What determines the supply of innovative digital infrastructure and how does variance in supply shape the performance of digital services? The essay reviews research into the economic impact of deployment, innovation, and adoption of digital infrastructure. It...
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Keywords:
Information Technology;
Infrastructure;
Economics;
Policy;
Research;
Analysis;
United States
Greenstein, Shane. "Digital Infrastructure." In Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, edited by Edward L. Glaeser and James Poterba. National Bureau of Economic Research, and University of Chicago Press, 2021.
- November 2021
- Article
Making Industrial Policy Work for Decarbonization
By: Jonas Meckling
Industrial policy has begun to move into the center of debates on climate policy. This represents a shift away from climate policy as we know it—as classic environmental policy. Industrial policy and environmental policy differ in their policy goals, policy...
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Meckling, Jonas. "Making Industrial Policy Work for Decarbonization." Global Environmental Politics 21, no. 4 (November 2021): 134–147.
- 2021
- Working Paper
The Business of K-12 Education in China
By: Geoffrey Jones and Yuhai Wu
This working paper examines the evolution of K-12 education in China, especially between 1985 and the present day, drawing extensive interviews with participants in the educational sector. China has been hugely successful in reaching almost 100 percent literacy,...
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Keywords:
K-12 Education;
China;
Real Estate;
Early Childhood Education;
Performance Evaluation;
Teaching;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Personal Development and Career;
Social Issues;
Nonprofit Organizations;
Private Sector;
Education Industry;
Real Estate Industry;
China
Jones, Geoffrey, and Yuhai Wu. "The Business of K-12 Education in China." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-022, October 2021.
- October 2021 (Revised February 2022)
- Case
Green Hydrogen in Chile
By: Tarun Khanna, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
In 2020, the Chilean government wants to promote green hydrogen, a technology with high potential to help mitigate climate change. President Sebastián Piñera, aware of the country's advantages to produce green hydrogen competitively, asks Energy Minister Juan Carlos...
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Keywords:
COVID-19 Pandemic;
Decision Making;
Alternative Energy;
Renewable Energy;
Climate Change;
Environmental Sustainability;
Green Technology;
Financial Instruments;
Energy Policy;
Government Administration;
Strategy;
Government and Politics;
Social Issues;
Energy Industry;
Latin America;
South America;
Chile
Khanna, Tarun, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Green Hydrogen in Chile." Harvard Business School Case 722-361, October 2021. (Revised February 2022.)
- September–October 2021
- Article
Frontiers: Can an AI Algorithm Mitigate Racial Economic Inequality? An Analysis in the Context of Airbnb
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Nitin Mehta, Param Singh and Kannan Srinivasan
We study the effect of Airbnb’s smart-pricing algorithm on the racial disparity in the daily revenue earned by Airbnb hosts. Our empirical strategy exploits Airbnb’s introduction of the algorithm and its voluntary adoption by hosts as a quasi-natural experiment. Among...
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Keywords:
Smart Pricing;
Pricing Algorithm;
Machine Bias;
Discrimination;
Racial Disparity;
Social Inequality;
Airbnb Revenue;
Revenue;
Race;
Equality and Inequality;
Prejudice and Bias;
Price;
Mathematical Methods;
Accommodations Industry
Zhang, Shunyuan, Nitin Mehta, Param Singh, and Kannan Srinivasan. "Frontiers: Can an AI Algorithm Mitigate Racial Economic Inequality? An Analysis in the Context of Airbnb." Marketing Science 40, no. 5 (September–October 2021): 813–820.
- Article
Party-State Capitalism in China
By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
The “state capitalism” model, in which the state retains a dominant role as owner or investor-shareholder amidst the presence of markets and private firms, has received increasing attention, with China cited as the main exemplar. Yet as models evolve, so has China’s...
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Keywords:
Economic Policy;
Communism;
Capitalism;
State Capitalism;
Economic Systems;
Economics;
Policy;
China
Pearson, Margaret, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee Tsai. "Party-State Capitalism in China." Current History 120, no. 827 (September 2021).