economic cycles - Publications - Faculty & Research

02 Sep 2019
What Do You Think?

Are Overlooked Forces Shielding the US from Severe Economic Downturns?

peterhowell Summing Up: Is the Current US Economic Expansion Primarily in the Hands of the Fed? New applications of technology and the expansion of the service economy may contribute to prolonged economic... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Service

2022
Working Paper

Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu

Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even... View Details

Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Business Startups; Human Capital; Business Cycles; Health Pandemics

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2021
Working Paper

Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality

By: Quirin Fleckenstein, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We document three facts about nonbank lending in the syndicated loan market. First, nonbank lending is more than twice as cyclical as bank lending. Second, declines in nonbank lending explain most of the declines in syndicated lending during the Great Recession and... View Details

Keywords: Nonbank Lending; Credit Cycles; CLO; Mutual Funds; Leveraged Lending; COVID-19; Great Migration; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financing and Loans; Business Cycles

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February 2008 (Revised December 2023)
Case

Digital Music: From MP3 to Streaming

By: Willy Shih

The emergence of the MP3 file-based music format not only disrupted the market for portable audio players, it also impacted the business models of major record labels. Modularity, and the commoditization spillover enabled by modularity in the personal computer... View Details

Keywords: Recording; Digital Devices; Digital Media; Digital Music; Digital; Digital Economics; Consumer Electronics; Customer Value and Value Chain; Disruptive Innovation; Technological Innovation; Information Technology; Music Industry; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry; United States

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23 Nov 2020
Research & Ideas

COVID Was Supposed to Increase Bankruptcies. Instead, They've Gone Down.

Bankruptcy filings in the United States were expected to soar during this year’s economic recession, induced by COVID-19. Instead, they dropped 27 percent year-over-year through August, driven by an unexpected drop in consumer and small... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

Vincent Pons

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT VINCENT PONS, CONSULT HIS WEBSITE.

Vincent Pons is... View Details

08 Sep 2016
Working Paper Summaries

A Model of Credit Market Sentiment

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin; Financial Services

11 Feb 2014
News

The Trouble with Sunspots

February 2015
Article

The Great Recession, Insurance Mandates, and the Use of In Vitro Fertilization Services in the United States

By: Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Robert S. Huckman and Mark D. Hornstein

Objective: To investigate the relationship between economic activities, insurance mandates, and the use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in the United States.

Design: We examined the correlation between the coincident index (a proxy for overall economic... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Recessions; Medical Care; In Vitro Fertilization; Health Industry; United States

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30 Jul 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration

Keywords: by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr

2016
Working Paper

Paying (for) Attention: The Impact of Information Processing Costs on Bayesian Inference

By: Scott Duke Kominers, Xiaosheng Mu and Alexander Peysakhovich

Human information processing is often modeled as costless Bayesian inference. However, research in psychology shows that attention is a computationally costly and potentially limited resource. We study a Bayesian individual for whom computing posterior beliefs is... View Details

Keywords: Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Economics

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November 1994 (Revised February 1996)
Case

Toy World, Inc.

By: W. Carl Kester

A shift from seasonal to level production of toys will change the seasonal cycle of Toy World's working capital needs and necessitate new bank credit arrangements. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Working Capital; Business Cycles; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Financial Statements

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07 Dec 2011
News

Cautious capitalism

May 2024
Article

Production Complementarity and Information Transmission Across Industries

By: Charles M.C. Lee, Terrence Tianshuo Shi, Stephen Teng Sun and Ran Zhang

Economic theory suggests that production complementarity is an important driver of sectoral co-movements and business cycle fluctuations. We operationalize this concept using a measure of production complementarity proximity (COMPL) between any two companies. We show... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Networks; Investment Return; Business Cycles

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07 Feb 2007
Research & Ideas

Dividends from Schumpeter’s Noble Failure

reviews, and three books, including the brilliant Theory of Economic Development (1911; English translation, 1934).1 Schumpeter struggled mightily with the research and writing of Business Cycles. As he told his friend and fellow View Details

Keywords: by Thomas K. McCraw

February 2021
Case

Lidya: Bringing Nigerian FinTech Innovation to Global Small and Medium Enterprises

By: Lauren Cohen and Spencer C.N. Hagist

Lidya CEO Tunde Kehinde must size up options for the expansion of his novel lending practices that drastically reduce the credit cycle in his developing Nigeria, and determine if expansion into Eastern Europe will prove successful or disastrous. View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Economics; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Strategy; Expansion; Nigeria

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21 Oct 2013
Research & Ideas

Missing the Wave in Ship Transport

Like investing in a mansion when the real-estate market is at its peak, buying a dry bulk ship in a boom time is a terrible long-term investment, according to new research that predicts cycles in the shipping industry. The contrarian... View Details

Keywords: by Kim Girard; Transportation

Research Summary

The Role of the Internet in Enhancing Service and Reducing Cost

Is delivering service (both internal and external) facilitated by the Internet a zero sum game in which costs associated with delivering superior service must always be passed on to customers in the form of higher prices? Does the quantity and type of service... View Details

January – February 2011
Article

Creating Shared Value

By: Michael E. Porter and Mark R. Kramer

The capitalist system is under siege. In recent years business has been criticized as a major cause of social, environmental, and economic problems. Companies are widely thought to be prospering at the expense of their communities. Trust in business has fallen to new... View Details

Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Economic Growth; Economic Systems; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Trust; Human Needs; Welfare; Competitive Advantage; Value Creation

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September 2011
Article

How to Solve the Cost Crisis in Health Care

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Michael E. Porter

Existing health care costing systems have serious flaws that make it impossible to measure costs accurately at the individual patient and medical condition level. This gap has severely limited meaningful cost reduction throughout the system. The paper describes a new... View Details

Keywords: Cost; Health Care and Treatment; Measurement and Metrics; Service Delivery; Outcome or Result; Quality; Health Industry

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