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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (47)

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    • All HBS Web  (138)
      • Faculty Publications  (47)

      by Samuel G. Hanson Remove by Samuel G. Hanson →

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      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-065, January 2011. (Revised September 2012, Internet Appendix Here.)
      • June 2010
      • Article

      A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
      We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; Investment Return; Government and Politics
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Jeremy C. Stein. "A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice." Journal of Finance 65, no. 3 (June 2010): 993–1028. (Supplementary results in Internet Appendix.)
      • 2010
      • Mimeo

      An Analysis of the Impact of 'Substantially Heightened' Capital Requirements on Large Financial Institutions

      By: Anil Kashyap, Jeremy C. Stein and Samuel G. Hanson
      We examine the impact of "substantially heightened" capital requirements on large financial institutions, and on their customers. Our analysis yields three main conclusions. First, the frictions associated with raising new external equity finance are likely to be... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Capital; Equity; Financing and Loans; Credit
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      Kashyap, Anil, Jeremy C. Stein, and Samuel G. Hanson. "An Analysis of the Impact of 'Substantially Heightened' Capital Requirements on Large Financial Institutions." 2010. Mimeo.
      • September 2008
      • Article

      Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
      This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States
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      Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
      • 2008
      • Mimeo

      Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?

      By: Joseph Chen, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong and Jeremy C. Stein
      This paper explores the question of whether hedge funds engage in frontrunning strategies that exploit the predictable trades of others. One potential opportunity for front-running arises when distressed mutual funds—those suffering large outflows of assets under... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Profit; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Opportunities; Asset Management; Sales
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      Chen, Joseph, Samuel G. Hanson, Harrison Hong, and Jeremy C. Stein. "Do Hedge Funds Profit from Mutual-Fund Distress?" 2008. Mimeo.
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

      By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
      In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
      Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management
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      Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Reflexivity in Credit Markets

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
      Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details
      Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." Journal of Finance (forthcoming).
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